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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

The Coming Age of Robotic Warfare

The opportunity – and danger – of AI-powered robotic armies

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A battalion of armed robots moves against a unit of soldiers, aiming to seize territory. In the ensuing battle, the robots open fire, communicate [...] More

Tech/Cyber

Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

BLUF: The Next AI Problem for Intelligence Is Not the Model, It's the Manager

Renee Pruneau Novakoff

The Intelligence Community has decided AI agents are coming. It has not decided how they will be supervised, checked and held to analytic standards. In April, CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis said analysts will soon work [...] More

Renee Pruneau Novakoff
Opinion

The Hidden Cost of America’s War With Iran

Walter Pincus

“The [U.S. Naval Support Activity Bahrain] base and Fifth Fleet headquarters have been rendered largely inoperable for their original functions, with repairs estimated at $400 million… Chief of Naval Operations Admiral [...] More

Walter Pincus Fine Print
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News & Analysis

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How Far Should the U.S. Go to Defend Saudi Arabia?

Recent deadly attacks by Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis inside of Saudi Arabia have raised questions about just how far the U.S. should go in helping [...] More

Middle East Expert View

Opinion

In Its Race to Field AI, The Pentagon’s Testing Can’t Keep Up

Jen Warren

In Its Race to Field AI, The Pentagon’s Testing Can’t Keep Up

CNN reported, citing four sources familiar with the episode, that the U.S. military prepared to intercept a Chinese vessel after an AI-assisted [...] More

Alternative Perspectives

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

A Case Officer’s Elegy For Sarajevo
A Case Officer’s Elegy For Sarajevo

Through Churchill’s lens: Kennedy’s self-creation into Greatness
Through Churchill’s lens: Kennedy’s self-creation into Greatness

Canada’s Top Soldier: Too Many Missions, Too Few Resources
Canada’s Top Soldier: Too Many Missions, Too Few Resources

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The Best National Security Gossip

CONTEMPT IS SUCH A STRONG WORD - UPDATE: Back in September, the Dead Drop told you MI5 had admitted giving false evidence to three courts in an effort to protect a neo-Nazi informant. The agency had sworn that it never confirmed the informant’s status to a BBC reporter. The reporter had the call on tape. Judges were weighing contempt. They’ve finished weighing. On Tuesday, three senior judges ruled that neither MI5 nor its officers will face contempt proceedings. The judges said they found enough evidence to open cases against two senior officers but then passed. Per GB News, they acknowledged that pursuing a case against [...] More

Get The Drop

Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Previous Event: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Russia’s war against Ukraine is being fought on the battlefield, but another confrontation is unfolding across Europe. From drone incursions and sabotage operations to cyberattacks and threats against critical infrastructure, Moscow’s expanding gray zone campaign is raising urgent questions about NATO’s ability to respond.

In this episode of State Secrets, host Suzanne Kelly is joined by Dr. Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau and former senior national security advisor to the Polish president, and Dave Pitts, former senior CIA executive and co-founder of The Cipher Brief’s Gray Zone Group.

Together, they examine how Russia is using hybrid warfare to test NATO’s defenses, spread fear and uncertainty, and undermine European support for Ukraine. They also explore the growing risks posed by drone technology, the potential use of chemical and radiological weapons, and why traditional deterrence strategies may no longer be enough.

As Russia’s shadow war expands beyond Ukraine, what will it take for Europe and the United States to effectively deter Moscow before these threats escalate further?