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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

America’s “Most Dangerous Dependence”: Can the U.S. Win the Critical Minerals Competition?

The Trump administration has gone all-in to counter China’s minerals edge. Will it be enough?

America’s “Most Dangerous Dependence”: Can the U.S. Win the Critical Minerals Competition?

What U.S. national security interest binds Greenland, Argentina, the Congo, and the Cook Islands? What was the impetus for the recent “strategic [...] More

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The Open Source Report

<span>Global Intelligence Report for Thursday, April 2, 2026</span>

Global Intelligence Report for Thursday, April 2, 2026

NASA spacecraft orbiting Earth after successful Artemis II Moon mission launch

Hopes for quick end to Iran conflict fade after Trump's speech vowing intensified attacks

UK convenes 35-nation talks to reopen Strait of Hormuz

As arms agreements fray, China secretly expands its nuclear weapons infrastructure

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Iran Is Building the Disinformation Architecture of the Future—Right Now

Bob Pearson

OPINION — Iran is the right place to start. Not because it is the most sophisticated adversary in disinformation—but because it is the most instructive. It has built a working infrastructure. It is using it in a live [...] More

Taking a Stand on Adversaries’ Influence in the Western Hemisphere

Renee Pruneau Novakoff

THE BLUF: The January 3rd Operation Absolute Resolve ousted Venezuelan Dictator Nicholas Maduro but the full consequences of the US operation continue to play out. With that move, the subsequent Shield of America’s [...] More

News & Analysis

The Chalk Mark Still Matters: Russian Espionage Handling in the Modern Era

The Chalk Mark Still Matters: Russian Espionage Handling in the Modern Era

KREMLIN FILES: A brush of a hand against a park bench with chalk; or, a piece of electrical tape left on a mailbox. Sometimes it’s a coded phrase [...] More

Opinion

Iran Exposed a New Reality for U.S. Air Power

OPINION — For thirty years, American wars have contained a quiet assumption: that the skies were uncontested. From Grenada and Panama, through Desert [...] More

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

DIA - UNCONFIRMED – We’re hearing from the rumor mill that DIA Deputy Director Christine Bordine’s last day in that role was today (Wednesday) and that Greg Ryckman will serve as Acting Deputy Director. We’re also hearing that the permanent DD could be a political appointee but that’s nothing but rumor right now. We hear Martin Kindl is the new Deputy Director of Global Integration. He formerly served as DJ2 at Joint Staff and more recently as Deputy DDGI. CONFIRMED – Kelli Arena has been named as the new President and Chief Executive Officer of The National Cryptologic Foundation starting next month. A lot of insiders [...] More

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Events

Live Events

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of March 13, 2026. This Black-Tie event is invite only, please apply here for a [...] More

Previous Event: 13 March, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets

A mass-casualty attack at Sydney’s Bondi Beach in December 2025 shattered assumptions about the decline of ISIS - and raised urgent questions about what comes next.

In this episode of State Secrets, Suzanne Kelly speaks with terrorism experts Levi West and Andrew Zammit to unpack what made this attack different: months of planning, coordinated tactics, and a clear alignment with evolving ISIS strategy.

The discussion reveals a troubling shift - from isolated, impulsive attacks to more deliberate, semi-organized operations fueled by sophisticated propaganda and global events like the Gaza conflict. The group also examines how ISIS is leveraging English-language messaging, rebuilding momentum across regions like Afghanistan and the Sahel, and blurring the line between “inspired” and “directed” attacks.

Most importantly, they explore what this means for U.S. and allied security services at a time when counterterrorism is no longer the top global priority.

Bottom line: ISIS may look diminished - but the threat is adapting in ways that are harder to detect, disrupt, and defeat.