The Cipher Take

Our Daily Breakdown of Headlines Around the World

Headline: U.S. Spy Satellites Spot Activity at North Korean Nuclear Site

U.S. surveillance satellites have detected activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site, U.S. officials told CNN Tuesday. The activity is centered around one of the tunnel entrances that leads to the underground testing site. U.S. surveillance and commercial satellites picked up test-site activity several weeks ago, but no activity has been reported since then. North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests, two of which occurred last year. Two officials also told CNN that President Donald Trump would be presented with military options in the event of a sixth nuclear test.

The Cipher Take:

Satellite imagery can only give indications of whether a test could occur, not when. During the previous activity several weeks ago, many experts believed North Korea had completed preparations for a sixth nuclear test that has yet to occur. The final decision to carry out a test rests with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and it is impossible to determine his intent. Some experts warn that the activity coincided with the U.S.-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue, focusing on North Korea’s nuclear program. Kim may find value in reminding the world he can test a nuclear weapon at any time even if he wishes to avoid the consequences of a real test. 

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Trump and the New Map of the Middle East
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Chinese Industrial Spies Cast a Wider Net
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Japan, South Korea Shaken by Pyongyang, Beijing – And Now, Washington
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Best Of: Sizing Up America’s Aircraft Carriers of the Future
U.S., China, Others Build Bases in Djibouti – What Could Go Wrong?
Asian Nations Arming for Underwater War
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The Hardest Fight Comes After Mosul Falls
Terror in London: ISIS Threat to West Intensifying
UK Terror Attack: Looking for Links to the U.S.
Europe Is Boosting Defense Spending – And It’s Not All About Trump
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Pyongyang and Beijing No Longer “Close as Lips and Teeth”
Terror Finance in the Age of Bitcoin
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Will China Play Peacemaker with Its Oil Suppliers Saudi Arabia and Iran?
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Allying Public and Private Forces on the Front Lines of Cybersecurity
Close Calls or Worse Between U.S. and Russia in Syria
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Africa

South Africa: On the Road to Turmoil?

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South Africa Has Made Political Reforms; Social, Economic Fixes Must Follow

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Veteran Envoy Calls South Africa’s Reputation for Instability “Fake”

Ambassador Herman Cohen

Asia

U.S. Running Out of Options in Afghanistan

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One-Size-Fits-All Approach Fails in Afghanistan

Anthony Cordesman

Trump's Options for Afghanistan: Losing or Not Losing

Ambassador James Dobbins

Europe

Brexit in Turmoil After Elections

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Did Russia Cloud Trump’s Talk with Ukraine’s President?

Mackenzie Weinger

Will Macron’s Parliamentary Win Mean Greater European Security?

Kaitlin Lavinder

Latin America

No Resolution on Venezuelan Crisis As Asylum Seekers Flee to U.S.

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Can Central America Break the Cycle of Drugs, Corruption and Gang War?

Michael Shifter and Ben Raderstorf

Drugs and Violence on the United States’ Doorstep: No End in Sight

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Middle East

Close Calls or Worse Between U.S. and Russia in Syria

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Putin Looks Elsewhere to Retaliate Against U.S. Acts in Syria

Rob Dannenberg and Michael Sulick

U.S. Downing of Syrian Warplane: A “Canary in the Coal Mine”

Admiral Sandy Winnefeld

North America

The Challenge of Briefing a “Fire and Forget” Trump

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