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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

After the War and After Putin: Three Potential Succession Scenarios for Russia’s Modern Tsar

Russia’s tightly controlled system makes a popular uprising unlikely—but succession inside the Kremlin may still reshape the country’s future.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE-CONFLICT-POLITICS

THE KREMLIN FILES / COLUMN — Recent weeks have seen seismic shifts in the world’s authoritarian landscape: from the dramatic removal of Venezuela’s [...] More

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The Open Source Report

U.S. And Israel Wage War Against Iran

Global Intelligence Report for Thursday, March 12, 2026

U.S. intelligence determines Iranian government is not at risk of collapse, say sources

Vessels attacked in Gulf, Strait of Hormuz as conflict intensifies

Iran is escalating the war by placing explosive mines along a key oil route

Russia providing Iran with specific advice on drone tactics, says Western intelligence source


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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

The Future of War Is Now: What Washington Needs to Hear from the Battlefield

Bryan Pickens
Douglas Davis
Bert Watson
Stephen Antoniak

OPINION — The February snow was over a week old but still piled heavy on the roads and sidewalks of Independence Avenue, the kind of stubborn Washington winter that refuses to yield to DC’s imperium, turning the capital's [...] More

America’s “Exquisite Class” Weapons Shortage

Walter Pincus

OPINION — “We just concluded a very good meeting with the largest U.S. Defense Manufacturing Companies where we discussed Production and Production Schedules. They have agreed to quadruple Production of the ‘Exquisite [...] More

News & Analysis

Interceptor Math: How Iran’s Drone Swarms Strain U.S. Defenses

Interceptor Math: How Iran’s Drone Swarms Strain U.S. Defenses

Western intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal has been cut in half - from roughly 2,500 projectiles down to [...] More

Opinion

The Drone War’s Real Problem Isn’t Technology — It’s Speed

OPINION — When Steve Blank and I sat down over coffee a decade ago and realized that the customer discovery process in Lean was identical to what I'd [...] More

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Book Reviews

CLAWS FOR CONCERN: While the administration has spent a lot of time talking about waste, a government watchdog outfit called “Open the Books” quietly did the math on the Pentagon's September spending spree - and let's just say the fat, in this case, was in the Alaskan king crab. According to the outlet, the Defense Department dropped $2 million on Alaskan king crab, $6.9 million on lobster tail, and $15.1 million on ribeye steak in a single month and The Daily Beast and other media outfits were quick to bite on the story. The Pentagon spent more than $93 billion in September 2025 - the highest single-month total since at [...] More

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Events

Live Events

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of March 13, 2026. This Black-Tie event is invite only, please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 13 March, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets


Washington Post columnist and bestselling novelist David Ignatius joins State Secrets to reflect on more than five decades covering intelligence, war, and global power. In this conversation with Suzanne Kelly, Ignatius shares his perspective on what he calls a potentially historic moment in U.S. conflict with Iran and explains why today’s battles increasingly unfold in the gray zone - from cyber operations to covert networks operating far from traditional battlefields.

Ignatius also discusses the evolving relationship between journalists and intelligence agencies, the challenges of reporting during periods of restricted access, and why original reporting still matters in an era of AI-generated analysis.

Drawing on decades of travel and firsthand reporting - from Beirut to Kyiv - he explains why being on the ground remains essential to understanding modern conflict, including what he calls Ukraine’s emerging “algorithm war.”

The conversation comes as Ignatius is honored with The Cipher Brief’s 2026 Impact in Journalism Award, recognizing a career spent uncovering how intelligence, technology, and geopolitics shape the world.