As part of our special coverage on Syria, The Cipher Brief spoke with expert Emile Nakhleh, former member, CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service, to get his assessment on how the President’s decision to pull U.S. troops out of Syria is likely to be acted on by allies, other countries in the region, and the impact it could have on terrorist groups still operating there.
The Cipher Brief: How do you weigh the risks and benefits of a full withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria?
Nakhleh: In my view, it is the exact decision which reflects ignorance of the realities of the situation in Syria and ignorance of the players in the region. It also undercuts the U.S.’ entire diplomatic effort which was assigned to Ambassador James Jeffrey. Ambassador Jeffrey was the one who said we are staying there for years to come because our presence provides leverage against Iran. It appears as though the President made that decision on the spur of the moment. Therefore, that eliminates any leverage we might have in deciding or tracking the future of Syria.
Second, this decision means that we will lose any influence on the actions of Iran, Russia and Turkey in Syria. The United States policy has always been to chart a future for Syria without Russia. Our immediate withdrawal from Syria, whether it's in two weeks or a few weeks, means that the future of Syria can easily be decided with Russia staying at the helm.
The decision totally ignores the new re-branded Al-Qaeda in Syria. HTS, Hayat Tahrir al Sham, is a conglomerate of different groups that supported Al-Qaeda. So, while the President says we have defeated ISIS, we actually have a resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria through HTS and we certainly will have a resurgence of ISIS in Syria. And Turkey is not really interested in fighting either of those entities. Turkey is interested in striking at the Kurds and the Kurdish Worker's Party.
The risks are serious and long term. I see no benefit at all from the decision to withdraw. We will not get any benefits. Israel will not get any benefits. Lebanon will not get any benefits because this decision will first, empower Hezbollah in Syria. It will also therefore empower Hezbollah in Lebanon. It will cement the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran in Syria.
To me, what is even more dangerous, is that those dictators in the region are just going to continue to do whatever they want to do against their own people and against their neighbors because they see the United States as a shrinking power in the Middle East. Now, we might still have military in Kabul and military presence in Bahrain and a military presence in the whole of Africa and military presence in the Arabian Sea, near the state of Hormuz in the Gulf and military presence in the east and Mediterranean, but the dramatic presence and influence has shrunk since significantly and this decision underscores this shrinkage.
As an observer of the region for over 50 years, I cannot imagine the degree of ignorance that underpins this decision by the President. It just does not make any sense to me at all. So therefore our leverage, diplomatic leverage is becoming, is rapidly becoming nil.
From the Russian perspective, and the Iranian perspective this is another Christmas present. This is giving Iran free rein in Syria. It's given Turkey free rein against the Kurds. Many of those Kurds, which were supported by the United States, fought alongside American soldiers. So now they are now left to twist in the wind at the mercy of Erdoğan. Syria is not going to stop Turkish raids against the Kurds. The Assad regime would not mind having the Turks clip the wings of the Kurds. In terms of their perspective they must be very happy, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah at the unexpected Christmas gift that they got from the White House.
This ad hoc decision reflects an erratic and ad hoc foreign policy which is not bringing any form of stability to the region. I was not necessarily supportive of sending our troops to Syria, but as long we were there, at least they provided some sort of control, some sort of influence, some sort of presence against the front element.
The Cipher Brief: If you had to speculate on what other types of leverage that U.S. Officials may feel like they have, what do you think that would be?
Nakhleh: If you want to be dramatic about it and really looking to the future, one leverage angle might be to reach an agreement with Iran about the sanctions, eliminate those sanctions, allow more exceptions for people to import Iranian oil and then in return, have Iran play in Syria. I don't think the Trump administration or National Security Advisor John Bolton, or Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has been giving speeches at the United Nations against Iran, will be working with Iran to exert leverage.
In terms of Russia, we don't have really much leverage to exert on Russia to play in Syria. So that leaves Erdoğan. What is Trump going to give Erdoğan? To extradite Fethullah Gulen? I don't think Trump is going to extradite the Turkish cleric, who is Erdoğan's arch nemesis, back to Turkey for Turkey to play in Syria.
The Cipher Brief: Do you see any silver lining in the decision to withdraw U.S. troops?
Nakhleh: In my intelligence days, I always looked for a silver lining. What's around the corner? Could we find a silver lining there? Unfortunately, I do not see a silver lining in this decision. The only silver lining is that we bring our troops home and save some money because of diminishing deployment overseas and perhaps we save some lives, but our troops there were not really in harm's way. They were in harm's way, but not seriously. I don't see a silver lining there. What's he going to bring those troops home and send them to the Mexican border?
I would describe this decision as short sighted, ignorant and dangerous. Our diplomats in the region will be exposed to danger, in fact whatever diplomats we have in Syria we have to pull out once our troops are pulled out. Then secondly, our diplomats in the region will lose more credibility than they already have lost because of such a decision. Third, we will not have any credibility associated with any promises diplomatically that we will make beyond tomorrow, beyond the day after. This decision constrains our diplomatic efforts at long-term planning with the countries in the region.
I don't think one can truly, no matter how supportive a person is of the Trump administration's policy in the region, even Israeli's, Pro-Trump Israelis, Pro-Netanyahu Israelis, I doubt whether they can find any positive silver lining in this decision, any positive benefits, any potential upsides from this decision. It seems to me there is nothing but a down side.
Read ‘Iran’s Uncontested Influence in Syria’ from Cipher Brief Expert Norm Roule…
Read ‘Prepare for a Return of ISIS’ from ISW’s Dr. Kimberly Kagan…
Read ‘How Will Russia Play a U.S. Syria Withdrawal, from Cipher Brief Expert Steve Hall…
Read‘President Trump’s Syria Surprise’ from Cipher Brief Expert Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt…
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