8 Global Security Questions For 2025
SPECIAL REPORT — Given how unpredictable 2024 proved to be – did anyone foresee the fall of Bashar Al-Assad, the decapitation of Hezbollah, an invasion of […] More
Hamas
Memo to the 47th President: A New and Dangerous Middle East
EDITOR’S NOTE — Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 election, The Cipher Brief has reached out to our network of experts for thoughts on what the […] More
Lessons from Israel’s Tale of Two Fronts
OPINION — On Oct 6th, Hamas was ready to launch an audacious attack. It was complex, involved thousands of fighters, and aimed to kill, capture, […] More
Iran’s ‘Ring of Fire’ Is In Trouble. What Comes Next?
DEEP DIVE — It may be the most consequential change to the Middle East since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks against Israel, and the wars […] More
The Latest
How Trump’s Win Alters the Landscape in the Middle East
DEEP DIVE — The Middle East has changed dramatically since President Donald Trump left office in 2021. An always-tense part of the world has seen an […] More
Militant Islam is Under Attack – But Its Root Causes Endure
OPINION — As the Israeli assault on Gaza passes the 13-month mark, and as Hezbollah reels under the massive Israeli bombing campaign on its leaders […] More
Israel’s New Military and Security Strategy: Could it Work?
EXPERT INTERVIEW — The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified in unprecedented ways over the past year, since Hamas — one of Iran’s anti-Israel proxy militias — breached […] More
After Sinwar: Questions for Israel, Iran and the Mideast Wars
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT — Israel announced Thursday that it had killed its most wanted man, the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, an act that several Cipher […] More
Sinwar is Dead. What Does it Mean for Power Dynamics in the Region?
EXPERT Q&A – In what many Cipher Brief Experts are calling one of the most significant events in the year-long war in Gaza, the killing […] More
Might Sinwar Killing Lead to Peace in Gaza?
DEEP DIVE — More than a year after Israeli leaders unleashed a punishing war to destroy Hamas, the end for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar came in […] More
Behind the U.S. Letter – and Ultimatum – To Israel
DEEP DIVE — It’s one of those “private” documents that was almost certainly written for public consumption. A spokesman for Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisted […] More
Could Israeli Attacks Prompt Changes in Iranian Intelligence?
OPINION — Iran’s intelligence services, particularly its Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS), must have been awestruck by Israel’s late-September airstrike on Hezbollah’s underground Beirut headquarters. The Israeli […] More
The Axis of Authoritarians – and A Dangerous World
OPINION — The October 1 debate between Senators Tim Walz and JD Vance dealt with just one foreign policy question: the widening war in the Middle […] More
One Year Later, Reflections on the Terror of October 7 – and the Wars That Followed
EXPERT ANALYSIS — Almost no one saw it coming. Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ Member. […] More
One Year Later, Lessons from Israel’s October 7 Intelligence Failures
OPINION — As Israel marks the one-year anniversary of the tragic October 7 attacks by Hamas, the country still has limited insight into the security establishment’s […] More
Lebanon has a chance to return power to its people. Will it take it?
OPINION — On 29 September, Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that his country was “committed to Resolution 1701” – a 2006 U.N. ceasefire plan […] More
Ex-US Commander: In Mideast, ‘We’re in the Wider War Now’
EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The Middle East is on the brink of a new war, after a dizzying series of events: Israel has battered Hezbollah militants in […] More
Ex-Secretary of Defense: Iran’s Attack Ushers in ‘Dangerous World’ in Middle East
EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — On the day after Iran’s missile strikes against Israel, and as Israel’s war cabinet considered a retaliation that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and […] More
Iran’s Attack – and Likely Israeli Response – Bring Dangerous ‘New Normal’ to Middle East
EXPERT Q&A — Iran’s missile barrage against Israel may have done little damage, but its aftermath may bring a major escalation in a region already brimming […] More