OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – As we reach a temporary ceasefire in diplomatic progress aimed at ending the war in Ukraine - a war that has cost the lives of more than a million people and has caused billions of dollars in damage – there is still a path we haven’t yet taken. One of maximum pressure. As of now, no agreement has been reached, no breakthrough achieved, no path forward identified, but the events of the past couple of weeks have made a few things crystal clear.
The first is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war he started on anything other than his own terms, which have not changed since the war began. Putin wants to occupy all of Ukraine and if that is not achievable through force alone, he will do his bet to turn the remainder of Ukraine into the 21st Century version of Vichy France.
Whatever contrary messaging Trump’s hopelessly overmatched envoy Steve Witkoff may have delivered, there can no longer be any doubt in the President’s mind of Putin’s intentions.
As Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian civilian targets throughout the period of negotiations including before and after the summit in Anchorage, Alaska, President Trump must now see clearly Putin’s love of brutality and his belief that he can win this war militarily.
It should also be clear to President Trump that his administration made a tactical and perhaps strategic blunder by granting Putin a meeting on U.S. soil with no concessions by the Russian side agreed to in advance. The U.S. move allowed Putin to end his diplomatic isolation, get a photo opportunity on U.S. soil for his constituents at home and seemingly disregard his history as an indicted war criminal.
In Putin’s mind, the summit was a meeting of equals and it was represented as such in the Russian press. This, despite Russia being a superpower only in that it possesses a vast arsenal of nuclear weapons. The U.S. is a superpower economically, militarily, and culturally. These are the reasons why Anchorage was a big win for Putin and an embarrassment for the U.S. But we can still fix this.
The Cipher Brief brings expert-level context to national and global security stories. It’s never been more important to understand what’s happening in the world. Upgrade your access to exclusive content by becoming a subscriber.
The White House meeting that followed the Trump-Putin talks, was an impressive display of allied solidarity that included Ukraine and senior European leaders. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky showed that he had learned some lessons from his previous visit to the Oval Office, this time, frequently and effusively praising President Trump and thanking him for the support the U.S. has provided since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.
Other NATO allies have clearly studied the playbook that Putin uses when manipulating Trump, managing to charm the U.S. president as they did during the NATO summit in the Netherlands earlier this summer. One hopes that President Zelensky and the other leaders effectively explained to President Trump the impossibility of Ukraine being able to accept Putin’s territorial demands, which aren’t only illegal under the Ukraine’s constitution but in Donetsk, they would mean abandoning carefully prepared defensive positions and the abandonment of over 200,000 Ukrainians to Russian occupation. For many, that would be a death sentence or rapid deportation to Russia’s gulags.
So far, the U.S. President has tried using flattery and accommodation bordering on appeasement to get Putin to end this war. It has not worked. He humiliated the Ukrainian President in the Oval Office to get him to do something he could not do—agree to what terms that to many, signify a surrender. The U.S. has cut off military and intelligence support to Ukraine. Still the Ukrainians fought on.
There is still time for the U.S. to act in a meaningful way.
The U.S. President has threatened Russia with “crushing” sanctions. But Putin played “rope-a-dope” and instead got a summit and postponement of sanctions for his efforts. President Trump has now set another deadline. The time for deadlines is over. It is time for action. The only path that has not been tried (but has only been threatened) is to put maximum pressure on Putin and the Russian Federation.
Who’s Reading this? More than 500K of the most influential national security experts in the world. Need full access to what the Experts are reading?
Here’s how we get there: first, the President should immediately authorize the advancement of pending legislation in the U.S. Congress on sanctions on Russia and purchasers of Russian hydrocarbon products.
Second, the President should use his authority to advance the sale or “lend lease” of military support for Ukraine.
Third, the U.S. should remove any restrictions on Ukrainian use of weapons systems already provided or already committed to help Ukraine defend itself. Let Ukraine take the war to the Russian Federation and make it visible to the people of Russia what is happening. If Putin doesn’t like it, let him end the war and withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
And fourth, the U.S. should restore maximum diplomatic isolation of Russia and publicly call out Russia as the aggressor in this conflict.
In this context, the success President Trump had ending the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict should be leveraged to reduce Russian influence in the Republic of Georgia, long a bastion of pro-U.S. sentiment but recently put under a cloud of Russian interference.
Let the loss of influence in the Caucasus be added to the list of Putin’s strategic failures. Put it on the list right next to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Sanctions alone won’t influence Putin, but sanctions, renewed military and financial support for Ukraine, renewed diplomatic isolation, and strategic leverage on Russia’s periphery might.
The path ahead should be clear to the U.S. President, who must now know that he can’t trust Putin. The Russian president is the enemy of the U.S. in every fiber of his being and it’s time for him to pay the price of his folly.
Disclaimer: All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. Government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. Government authentication of information or endorsement of the author's views.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.
We'd love to let you see this week's Dead Drop - the very best national security gossip (so says us) - but you have to provide credentials to get access. Not a Subscriber+Member? Don't worry, we hear it's easy to fix that.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
