Russian President Vladimir Putin is publicly welcoming President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria. In a press conference on Thursday, Putin said that “The fact that the U.S. has decided to withdraw troops is right,” adding “we have dealt serious blows against ISIS in Syria.”
Putin’s comments almost exactly mirror the Russian playbook, as laid out by Cipher Brief Expert Steve Hall, a former member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service and part of The Cipher Brief’s Moscow Station team.
As part of our Special Coverage on Syria, The Cipher Brief spoke with Hall about what Russia stands to gain by the announced withdrawal and how they could potentially build on what is seen as a win for Russia.
The Cipher Brief: What kind of response should the U.S. expect to see from Russia on news that the U.S. is pulling troops out of Syria? How does this look for Russian President Vladimir Putin?
Hall: I think this is a pretty clear victory for Vladimir Putin. If I remember back to the 2010 timeframe, the administration at the time was having a series of conversations with the Russian government. The tone and the substance were extremely different. It was not a matter of if, but when Assad was going to leave. The Russians were very concerned about that and who would replace him, and what that would do to stability. Now, of course, Russia and Assad have essentially won in Syria. In just a couple of years, we've gone from almost certainty that Assad was going to leave, to now almost certainly that with Russia and Vladimir Putin's help, he's going to stay.
When you step back for a second and look at it from 30,000 feet from the geopolitical sense, and ask why is Russia doing this on the side of Assad, there really is no significant strategic reason for Russia to be interested in Syria, with the exception of the fact that the most important thing for Vladimir Putin is showing that Russia is a great power and has great power status. Part of that, of course, is being able to extend your power, both militarily, and politically, and economically, to other areas. My assessment is that Putin chose Syria because he knew that a Russian win would equate to an American loss. It was a good opportunity for him to show the world, as well as the Russians, that they were still in the game, that they still had a seat at the world table with the big boys. That was a big deal and continues to be, I think, a big deal for Vladimir Putin and really, I think is the entire basis of his interest in Bashar al-Assad and Syria.
I think you'll see a number of things from Russia now, many of which are predictable. I think one thing that you'll see from Moscow and from the Kremlin is exactly what you were referring to, which is defeating terrorism. The Russians, when in doubt, will always cloak questionable foreign policy endeavors as, "Hey, can't we all agree that terrorists are bad, and so we need to kill them?" Russia will certainly sound, I believe, that anti-terrorist, anti-ISIS theme. Scarily as it might be, there might actually be a lot of resonance with what's coming out of the White House, which is, as you just referenced, the defeat of ISIS. I think the Russians will certainly latch onto the counter-terrorism thing because it cloaks what, again, their real intention is, which is exerting themselves and showing the rest of the world and Russians that they are still a great power to be reckoned with. You may see a little bit of that thematically, I would guess, on some of the Russian television shows that are primarily internally watched as opposed to externally inside of Russia, the thing about how Russia's greatness has allowed for this important step forward. That will play well domestically.
Over the longer run though, especially as Russia continues to be under Western economic sanctions, I think you are going to continue to see Russia take a hard look at how much it is exerting itself financially in Syria and in the region, and if once the United States and the West do take a step back, whether it will continue to be worth the level of investment that Russia has already put there because the Russian economy is not performing extremely well. If we're looking at a possible recession down the road, I think that's going to be something that Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin are going to have to take into account before they consider their continued strong presence, at least in Syria.
I believe that one of the main reasons that Russia was able to be successful over the long-term, again, I look back to 2010, when Russia looked like it was not going to be successful, is because the West and the United States specifically have become very, very distracted and factionalized, Balkanized, if you will. They're not focused on some of the other things that Russia is doing, which is exactly what Vladimir Putin wants.
The Cipher Brief: What are your thoughts on where we are with Afghanistan today? Russia has certainly asserted themselves there recently, hosting peace talks.
Hall: Just as a general student of geopolitics, but certainly not specializing in that area of the world, but having traveled a bit and talked to some government and intelligence players in some of the bordering countries in Central Asia, which I used to be responsible for, I think remember one foreign intelligence counterpart telling me, "Look, nothing ever gets better Afghanistan really. It doesn't matter how far you go back." I think it's probably a safe bet to say Afghanistan is going to continue to be problematic. But I too, paid attention to this interesting and sudden pique of interest on Russia's part in Afghanistan and the connection there to the Taliban.
That's going to be a really interesting thing to see how Vladimir Putin plays this because obviously it falls into what I was referring to earlier in terms of his desire to get out there and reassert Russia's preeminence in the world as a major power. Exerting your influence into Afghanistan is something that does that. However, many Russians, I think even young ones, have heard of, or have read about, or have seen movies and documentaries on Russia's activities in Afghanistan in the '70s and '80s. I think he's got to be really careful because really the only thing that I think caused Vladimir Putin in his early days as Russia's leader to become concerned is when young soldiers came back in body bags from the Chechen wars that he started, and you started to have those kids' mothers take to the streets. He doesn't want to repeat that. I don't think the Russian people want to see a whole lot of their people killed in Afghanistan. He's got to be a little bit careful If he's going to get into those waters, he's going to have to dip his toe very, very carefully back into Afghanistan, lest people in Russia remember and start calling up all those bad memories.
Read ‘Iran’s Uncontested Influence in Syria’ from Cipher Brief Expert Norm Roule…
Read ‘The Greater Cost of U.S. Absence in Syria’ from Cipher Brief Expert Emile Nakhleh…
Read ‘Prepare for a Return of ISIS’ from ISW’s Dr. Kimberly Kagan…
Read‘President Trump’s Syria Surprise’ from Cipher Brief Expert Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt…
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