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Cipher Brief Expert View

The Last Undefended Perimeter

Russia has industrialized cognitive warfare, producing synthetic media at scale through a modular system that targets soldiers, civilians, and [...] More

The Latest

Security will be a Critical Aspect of New AI Center

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The recent signing of an agreement between the United Arab Emirates and the United States to create a large scale joint center [...] More

Counter-AI May be the Most Important AI Battlefront

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Artificial intelligence (AI) has truly captivated the American imagination, with increasing attention focused on the latest AI [...] More

As Negotiations Over Ukraine Drag On, What Can Putin Stand to Lose?

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE“How Many Divisions has the Pope Got?” Josef Stalin’s sarcastic, contemptuous dismissal of an appeal by Pope Pius XI to a higher [...] More

What Comes After Istanbul Will Define Ukraine

Never give in—never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense. [...] More

Tariffs Delivered the Jolt - Now Comes the Build

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION — Bold moves lead to bold outcomes. President Trump understood that reshaping global trade would bring short-term pain, [...] More

Resetting Ukraine Negotiations Could Prevent a Shift in Great Power Competition

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The change in U.S. posture toward Ukraine, the expanding fracture between the U.S. and NATO, and what appears, at least for now, [...] More

Trump is Handing Europe its Turn to Lead

OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE (LONDON) – U.S. President Donald Trump has only been back in the White House for 6 weeks, but the reaction in Europe to [...] More

The Art of Negotiating with Vladimir Putin

As talks move forward between the U.S. and Russia with the intention of an agreement to end Moscow's war in Ukraine - with or without Ukraine's [...] More

Will the new Administration bring new opportunity on Afghanistan?

In April of 2024, I offered some thoughts in The Cipher Brief on a possible way forward in Afghanistan. That approach certainly wasn’t perfect or [...] More

The world can't afford another 'Mafia Don' war when it comes to Russia

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION – The upcoming peaceful inauguration of the next U.S. president should serve as a reminder to the world of the virtues [...] More

Trump Administration's Counterterrorism Policy Should Begin at Golan Heights

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION — We’ve seen all this before, the U.S. mission in Syria is not mission complete – it was not in 2018 – and it’s not done [...] More

Supreme Leader Khamenei’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year

“Fate is a wheel that turns; in our pride, we sometimes forget how swiftly it can crush us beneath it.” - Attributed to Shah Ismail I, founder of the [...] More