CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – President Donald Trump made a number of headlines this week as he led an impressive delegation of government and private sector executives to the Middle East but it was a meeting with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and a U.S. announcement that it is lifting sanctions on Syria, that came as perhaps the biggest surprise and offered a strong indicator of how relationships in the Middle East are being reshaped under the president’s second administration.
The move is a big deal in part because until recently, Syria has been an ally and has served as a key strategic location for both Russia and Iran to operate. Following the collapse of the Syrian regime, those operations in Syria are believed to have been significantly reduced.
CONTEXT: HOW WE GOT HERE
The United States suspended diplomatic operations in Syria shortly after the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2012. Two years later in 2014, the United States ordered Syria’s embassy in the U.S. to close. Over the decade that followed, the country was engulfed in a civil war with former Syrian President Bashar Al Assad supported by Iran & Russia, battling opposition groups that received support from Qatar, Turkey and the United States. But in late 2024, when the Assad regime fell with a surprising swiftness that most didn’t see coming, fled to Russia and in his wake, Ahmed al-Sharaa rapidly rose as the de-facto new leader of the country.
Al-Sharaa, known previously through his allegiance with al-Qaeda in Syria, was once captured in Iraq and served time in the infamous Abu Ghraib prison. Now leading a new Syrian government, one in which the former al-Qaeda and opposition fighter has committed to uniting the country and protecting the rights of minority groups, the U.S. is asking the Syrian leader to take steps toward normalizing relations with Israel and offering a path to eventually join the Abraham Accords. Trump said he hopes the new Syrian government will “succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace”.
The Cipher Brief’s Brad Christian caught up with former senior CIA officer and station chief Glenn Corn to discuss the regional implications of Trump’s surprise announcement and his reset with Syria. Our interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
The Cipher Brief: We've seen a number of important developments coming out of the president’s visit. Perhaps the most surprising was the meeting between President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa. What’s your take on the significance of that meeting?
Corn: It was a surprise, although not a great surprise. Personally, I welcome it. I think it was a very good move by the president. I can tell you people here in Turkey are very excited about it. Going back to November and December of last year, there was a lot of talk in Syria and in Turkey, where they have a common border and a lot of interests in Syria, about a desire for the U.S. to open up relations, lift sanctions and get some business and investment flowing again into Syria, where it is desperately needed. And of course, from my own perspective, that's good because we need to keep other people out of Syria who are working against our interests.
It’s also significant because the Saudis and the Gulf states are providing a lot of the financial assistance for the recovery of Syria. And they have a vested interest in making sure Syria doesn't go in a direction like in the past where it's been problematic and was more closely aligned to Iranian interests and functioned as a kind of a base of operation for the Iranians. So, they're definitely interested in filling the void that's been left when the Iranians were pushed out, and Hezbollah has also been pushed out to a large extent, and the Russians have been pushed out. So, I think it's significant.
The Saudis and the Emiratis and others, the Qataris have all been paying attention since the regime was overthrown last November. And that the president went to Saudi Arabia the way he did is not surprising because since his first term, he's put a lot of emphasis on relations with the Gulf countries, the Gulf states. And again, I applaud that. I think it's good.
The Cipher Brief: What needs to happen next after this meeting to indicate that Syria is able to maintain a stable government and welcome foreign investment?
Corn: The current government's ability to rein in all the extremist groups that have been operating there for years will be a challenge, and they may have to deal with an insurgency from the Alawite community, the pro-Assad groups or people who were tied to Assad in the past. As you recall, a couple of weeks ago, there was uptick in fighting resulting in some massacres in Syria, so the Alawites were beginning to take to the streets or take up arms again. The regime is going to need help in my opinion dealing with that.
I also think that for the president, what's key is that the Israelis and the Syrians get along. And of course, through Syria, the Turks and the Israelis. I think one of the goals of the administration should be - and probably is - to ease relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara, two critical allies in the region. So, I think what the president is saying is that we want the Israelis and the Syrians to get along and we'll have to see how the Israelis respond. And we'll have to see whether the new government in Damascus has the wherewithal to control the situation on the ground.
Let's not be naive. It's a very, very complex picture. In terms of next steps, I think the sanctions being lifted, getting some U.S. business, some investment, will be critical. I can tell you here in Turkey, what we're hearing is that the Turks are looking for the United States to play a role. And of course, the Turks want to play a role with the United States in rebuilding Syria and denying Syrian territory to be used by our enemies or the enemies of the Turkish state, including Iran and Hezbollah.
I would include the Russians also, because we know the Russians previously had a big presence in Syria and so this week was a loss for them. President Trump said after Assad fled to Moscow last year, that this showed that Putin and the Iranians were weak. I think he was spot on about that. And in my own assessment, we should continue efforts that are going to keep the Russians out of Syria.
I know there's a lot of criticism of the current Syrian leadership, given their background and I think we need to be realistic that that's who's in charge now and we need to work with them. I think what the Turks were trying to do is bring them to moderation through their relationship with them and their support for them.
The intersection of technology, defense, space and intelligence is critical to future U.S. national security.Join The Cipher Brief on June 5th and 6th in Austin, Texas for the NatSecEDGE conference.
The Cipher Brief: What is your prediction on Turkey's military posture and security presence as it relates to Syria in the near term?
Corn: Last week, Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the PKK, announced that they were ending their armed struggle against the Turkish state, which is very significant and that's something that people should pay attention to. Even before that, there were indications of movement between groups like the YPG, SDF YPG to integrate back into the Syrian government. I think the U.S. is encouraging that.
We want a unified Syrian state that is moderate, that is going to take care of the Kurdish minority in the country and protect their rights. Up until now, the Turks have been very active militarily, especially along the border where they've been conducting strikes because they claim that the PKK, the YPG, SDF is a direct threat to Turkish national security interests and has been launching attacks against Turkey for years. If that problem set is dealt with and if the PKK is laying down its arms, that is very, very significant.
The Turks will probably also want to have some military presence in Syria because they see it as their sphere of influence in the region. And in order to help the new regime or the new government, they probably feel that they need to have some kind of military capability inside Syria. I'm not sure what U.S. policy will be on that.
My own view is that we shouldn't object to that as long as we, the U.S., see any extremist groups re-emerging in Syria that are threatening Western and U.S. interests. I think the message to the Turks should be that they need to allow us to do what we do very well when we identify threats which is to disrupt those threats. Obviously, it would be better to conduct those types of potential operations in coordination and cooperation with the Turks and of course the Syrian government.
The Cipher Brief:What do you think Russia's reaction and possible next steps might be relative to Syria?
Corn: The Russians were trying to get back in or maintain whatever presence they were left with when Assad fled. They've been trying to increase or improve relations with the new government, and they definitely do not want to lose their access to Syria. I'm sure that they're bothered by what President Trump just did on this visit because the Russians have been trying very hard to drive a wedge between the U.S. and the Gulf countries.
Of course, the arms deals that were signed by the president or announced when he was in the Gulf, that's a problem for the Russians because it takes away one of their arms markets that they've been pushing very hard to secure or take away from the U.S.
In Syria, I would not be surprised if they try and create problems and support groups that will try to undermine the new government behind the scenes, while openly pretending that they're trying to be on good terms with the new regime. But I don't think that the Russians have much of a choice right now. And that's one reason I'm happy with what President Trump did, because there was some concern that the new administration was ignoring Syria. And this week, I think the U.S. sent a strong message that we're not ignoring Syria, and we understand how important it is for U.S. interests and allied interests.
The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is happening October 19-22 in Sea Island, GA. The world's leading minds on national security from both the public and private sectors will be there. Will you? Apply for a seat at the table today.
The Cipher Brief: How might this impact CIA and its core mission? Is there a role for supporting this business-first foreign policy, and if so, how are you thinking about that given your very long career in the intelligence community?
Corn: Great question. It's a difficult one to answer. My understanding is that the administration is looking very hard at commercial diplomacy and driving our national security interests through promoting U.S. business interests. This is going to require the foreign affairs community and the national security community in the United States to make some adjustments.
Our embassies around the world are going to have to improve their ability to deal with U.S. companies that are trying to invest and do business in countries that are unstable, providing some guarantees through organizations like the Development Finance Corporation, Exim Bank, other lenders, along with parts of the U.S. government that can provide some support and assistance to U.S. companies.
Working with allied companies and investors is very important and it's probably been something that has not happened enough in the past. We see the way that the Chinese have very aggressively used economic power and trade to expand their influence without having to use aircraft carriers and build bases around the world. So, I think the administration is very focused on that.
When we go to specifically the intelligence community, this is going to raise some questions because if you remember in the 90s, there was talk about whether or not the intelligence community should be doing economic intelligence or commercial espionage to support U.S. corporations. There are a lot of people that are against that idea because the intelligence community is there to serve and support the Constitution of the United States and the American people, not one specific corporation or another.
So, there's always going to be concern that certain individuals or corporations will benefit from the risks that are being taken by the intelligence community. But I do think that there are things that the IC can do to help promote U.S. business. One of those things is to ensure that like intelligence and government leaders, U.S. commercial interests and leaders have a better understanding of what the threats and the risks are that they're having to face as they go into places like Syria. The previous director of the CIA, Director William Burns, was very good about trying to open up the organization and engage the commercial or the business community. And I think that should continue. It’s something that's needed.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.
