Dr. Michael G. Vickers, a Cipher Brief expert and former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, delivered opening remarks at the recent Cipher Brief HONORS Dinner in Washington D.C. The following is an excerpt of those comments that have been lightly adapted for clarity.
The state of the world is dangerous – and getting more dangerous all the time.
OPINION — A new Cold War is upon us, and like the first Cold War, it didn’t take long for the new one to produce a major war, though this time in Europe rather than in Asia. And it’s not just one major war we currently face but two. And with increasing Chinese bellicosity toward Taiwan, the prospect of a third is growing.
As (CIA Director) Bill Burns put it in a recent Foreign Affairs article, “China’s rise and Russia’s revanchism pose daunting geopolitical challenges in a world of intense geopolitical competition.”
Russia, China, and Iran have joined in a tacit, anti-U.S. alliance. China is intent on more than tripling the size of its nuclear arsenal, and both China and Russia are in the process of fielding new, more destabilizing nuclear capabilities. Space has become a contested domain, and the threat from hostile cyber and information actors is increasing sharply.
Per (FBI Director) Chris Wray, even the global jihadists are making a comeback.
North Korea is steadily adding to its nuclear arsenal. So much for the diplomatic effectiveness of exchanging love letters with Kim Jong-Un.
Complicating matters further, a revolution in technology even more powerful than the Industrial and nuclear revolutions is well underway, with profound implications for economic competitiveness, national defense and intelligence. From microelectronics and artificial intelligence to quantum computing and synthetic biology, the technology revolution is transforming the foundations of wealth and power. In the not-too-distant future, it will even challenge our conception of what it means to be human.
We haven’t faced an international environment this challenging since the early Cold War.
Russia is the most acute threat to the American-led international order. The war in Ukraine has resulted in immense losses for the Russian military, but Putin still believes that our resolve will weaken and he will win in the end.
We must disabuse him of this by providing Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to protect its population and prevail on the battlefield, not just this year, but in 2025 and for as long as it takes. Instead of ceding escalation dominance to Putin, we must harness the technological and industrial mobilization potential of the West to give Ukraine the capabilities and conventional escalation dominance it needs to win. And we must accelerate Ukraine’s integration into the West, economically and militarily, to deter future Russian aggression. China and other would-be aggressors are all closely watching what we do.
This column is an excerpt of comments by Cipher Brief Expert Dr. Michael Vickers delivered during The Cipher Brief HONORS Dinner on May 2, 2024.
Watch videos about the honorees, including CIA Director William Burns' acceptance speech, on The Cipher Brief's Digital Channel.
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