While not in the headlines every day, al Qaeda operatives are still the targets of somewhat regular military operations in places like Yemen. The U.S. carried out a series of air strikes against al Qaeda targets in Yemen over the summer according to U.S. Forces Central Command (CENTCOM).
Former Acting Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, David Shedd shares just where he believes the al Qaeda threat is focused today, particularly when it comes to the threat the organization poses to the U.S. and Europe, and just how the organization might be assessing its opportunities to expand operations and influence.
The Cipher Brief: How do you think al Qaeda is looking at the current landscape and identifying opportunities?
Shedd: The absence of much news or publicity concerning al Qaeda should not be taken as a sign that al Qaeda’s intentions and determination to plan and execute attacks against western targets has subsided. In the aftermath of Daesh, also known as the Islamic State, being dislodged from large portions of Iraq including Mosul and losing most of their territory in Syria, al-Qaeda must feel vindicated for taking a more methodical and long term approach than Daesh.
While continuing to suffer losses of al Qaeda combatants in places like Yemen, al-Qaeda remains focused on the much longer term in their version of jihad against those who oppose them. Al Qaeda is no doubt looking at the continued unrest that arose and persisted after the 2011 Arab Spring in north Africa and the Middle East as continued opportunities for them to recruit new adherents, while continuing to promote a largely decentralized approach to their structure wherein local leaders in the name of al Qaeda have a significant amount of autonomy to recruit, train, and execute attacks as the opportunities arise.
Locations like Libya, Egypt, Somalia, Yemen as well as Syria and Iraq remain attractive territory from which to draw Sunni recruits to target attacks in Europe and if at all possible, inside the United States, remains highly attractive.
The Cipher Brief: How big of a threat can al Qaeda potentially become again?
Shedd: While there are always improvements that can be made to improve our defenses aimed at preventing a major terrorist attack by al Qaeda, the fact is, that nearly 17 years after the attacks of September 11, 2001, there have been vast improvements made by our national security organizations aimed at thwarting the threats from al Qaeda and its affiliates.
Those improvements, led by the United States and key allies such as the U.K., France, and many other countries, include a much more robust information sharing model aimed at early detection to counter the planning and execution by al Qaeda and other like-minded international terrorist organizations. Continued persistence by the counterterrorism communities around the globe in applying all available technology, data sharing, and as necessary, military or paramilitary force against al Qaeda, is likely to prevent the organization from undertaking a catastrophic size attack against a western target.
The Cipher Brief: There are obviously several affiliate and splinter organizations operating around the world, do any of them concern you more than others?
Shedd: I remain concerned by the apparent growth of rather unstructured elements among the Sunnis, who are no less strident in their ideological posture and willingness to attack soft targets in west Africa and as far south as the northern area of Mozambique.
In other parts of Africa, al Qaeda affiliates may also see growing opportunities to make inroads in locations such as Cameroon and Niger in addition to the remaining threat posed in the northeast portions of Nigeria by Boko Haram. The civil war in Yemen continues to give al Qaeda a strong raison d’être for countering the Houthis and other disparate elements in Yemen. The reemergence of al Qaeda’s south Asia affiliate Jemaah Islamiyah operating, but currently largely kept in check in Indonesia, southern Philippines, and Malaysia remains a significant concern as battle-hardened Daesh fighters return home. One must never overlook, speaking of returning Syria-Iraq based Daesh fighters, the threat that small groups/individuals pose in Europe and elsewhere in places such as Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria.
The Cipher Brief: Is there anything specifically we need to keep in mind to better understand the al Qaeda threat as it continues to evolve?
Shedd: We need to keep in mind that al Qaeda and its like-minded extremists see their struggle against the infidels as multi-generational and very long term. While facing setbacks, they have accounted for those setbacks in their struggle. Al Qaeda’s ability to recruit new talent is not waning even if their operational space for training and executing their attacks is more challenging today than it was nearly two decades ago. We must never ever forget that we face a determined enemy intent on “winning the long war.”
Their ability to emerge successfully in waging their version of jihad must be met with a wide array of responses from the west that is equally relentless in using all available means at our collective disposal aimed at thwarting their ability to tap new recruits, remove their leadership from the battlefield, and using all available means to share as much information among those countering any current and future threats that may emerge from al Qaeda and its allied groups and affiliates.
