
Taliban 3.0: The Terrorism Threat and a Humanitarian Nightmare
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT — The withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan three years ago led to the fall of the U.S.-backed government in Kabul, the […] More
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION — In April of 2024, I offered some thoughts in The Cipher Brief on a possible way forward in Afghanistan. That approach certainly wasn’t perfect or risk-free, but it represented a step forward; a step we’ve yet to take to put Afghanistan on a sustainable path forward since the 2021 U.S. withdrawal. I stand behind the points in that article, but I would like to highlight a few thoughts as we enter a new year.
It is impossible to fully articulate the human suffering and uncertain future of Afghans who had to flee their country, many of whom still have family members there. Yet, many Afghans with whom I have talked remain resilient and committed to finding a way to move forward, difficult as it may seem.
I think those Afghans believe that the current dismal state of their nation under the Taliban was never the intended outcome of U.S. and international presence and investment for two decades, that there was (and is) a vision for an Afghanistan far different from what we see today, and that there is more to come. I agree, and I hope the new administration does as well.
The new administration will make decisions—through action or inaction—about the future of Afghanistan and the hundreds of thousands of Afghans now scattered around the world who continue to face an uncertain future. Those decisions will also impact the stability of Afghanistan, the stability of the region, the continuing threat of terrorism, ongoing humanitarian issues, the basic human rights of Afghans—specifically women and girls—and the potential for Russia, China, and Iran to use Afghanistan and the region to undermine U.S. interests.
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Those decisions could also begin to restore our reputation as a reliable partner in the region and beyond. Alternatively, the image of a deteriorating Afghanistan which harbors terrorists and fuels regional tensions will be seen as a constant reminder of U.S. abandonment.
Beyond matters of policy, Americans generally like to stand behind our commitments, and I think many agree we have unfinished business in Afghanistan. This is both as a matter of what is good for U.S. national security and what is right for the people who were our trusted allies and partners for two decades.
There is a reasonable framework of five potential policy recommendations that the new administration can adopt to begin a process for a new political way forward for Afghanistan.
1. State clearly that Afghanistan remains important to the U.S. The future of Afghanistan as a sovereign country, the Afghan people, and Afghans displaced around the world since the 2021 U.S. withdrawal remain a priority for the United States.
2. The U.S. should not recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan and does not fund or support its regime. This is current U.S. policy, but restating this point as part of a broader policy is important. The U.S. will maintain dialogue with the Taliban on important issues, such as terrorism, accountability of humanitarian funding, and U.S. persons in Taliban custody, but that engagement will not reward the Taliban or lead to more senior talks. Further, the U.S. will not negotiate solely with the Taliban on the future of Afghanistan.
3. The threat of terrorism and regional instability from Afghanistan remains a national security priority, and the U.S. should work with its international partners to disrupt ISIS-K, a resurgent al-Qa’ida, and other groups that pose a threat to the U.S. and our partners. The U.S. should hold the Taliban accountable for terrorists that remain in Afghanistan and terrorism that spreads beyond Afghanistan. The U.S. should act in its own national interest and in coordination with our partners against terrorist threats in Afghanistan.
4. The U.S. should welcome and encourage the emergence of a legitimate political opposition to the Taliban, which can serve as a coordinated voice on Afghan interests to the U.S. and the international community. Our failure to enable our trusted colleagues of the past 20 years in seeking solutions for the future of Afghanistan has been a glaring oversight. This group should participate in all international talks with the Taliban on the future of Afghanistan, specifically including the transition to a future inclusive government representative of all Afghans.
5. A sustainable path forward for Afghanistan requires international cooperation. The U.S. should work with the UN, the international community, and the recognized political opposition to the Taliban on a common, coordinated framework of actions and commitments that demonstrate a united front of cooperative nations to the Taliban. As a priority, the U.S. and international donors must put in place mechanisms and procedures to ensure humanitarian funding for Afghanistan cannot be diverted by the Taliban for its own uses.
Of course, nothing is as simple as it looks in a few paragraphs. This will take a few key steps to implement as policy.
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First, we will need a new Special Representative for Afghanistan to lead this effort. We need an individual with credibility and the support of the administration to lead this challenging effort. This cannot be business as usual or a caretaker role.
Second, we need our Afghan colleagues to consider a legitimate political opposition that can speak for the interests of all Afghans. The U.S. should not try to select a group, but instead rely on a group to emerge through consultation among existing Afghan groups.
Those with experience in Afghanistan recognize that past rivalries or political aspirations could get in the way, and this may be the most difficult part of the process. If there is any interest by the new administration in supporting this initiative, I urge our Afghan colleagues to find a way to make this work. I believe they can and will.
Third, the new Special Representative will need to engage with our global partners on avoiding the slippery slope of recognition of the Taliban. As time passes, some countries have moved incrementally in this direction simply because of their own national considerations. U.S. leadership on a coordinated international approach to Afghanistan and the Taliban will be crucial. I acknowledge that this will take a concerted diplomatic effort.
Fourth, we need to be prepared for stiff Taliban resistance to these efforts. I believe the Taliban fears Afghan unity and specifically the recognition of a capable, experienced political opposition that represents the interests of all Afghans, which is in stark contrast to the Taliban’s priority on the survival of its regime.
The Taliban is likely to refuse to meet, to draw redlines on any limited transactional arrangements in place with the U.S., or to threaten other drastic steps. We’ve seen this tactic before. A coordinated international approach will prevent the Taliban from undertaking its predictable divide and conquer approach with individual countries.
Finally, we need to watch China, Russia, and Iran closely as this initiative progresses. All three have their own interests at play in Afghanistan and all three are very likely to attempt to disrupt, undermine, and distract from any U.S. initiative in Afghanistan. We should expect these countries to offer their own “peace conferences”, their own plans, and to reward continued Taliban resistance as a means to derail any U.S and international effort.
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A new administration and a new year always represent opportunity. There will be many consequential challenges facing the new national security team and our diplomats on day one, and we need them to engage on those challenges.
No one in Washington will see Afghanistan as anywhere near the top of our national security priorities, but it is possible that the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor can see beyond the immediate and even urgent national security priorities to this important, enduring issue.
For certain, the challenges are significant, but the alternatives are far worse. Not acting puts our national security and the stability of this important region in the hands of others.
This is a new opportunity for the U.S to take decisive steps in our own national interest, the interest of our regional and international partners, and toward a sustainable path for the future of Afghanistan.
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Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
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