OPINION — In a significant and troubling shift for the country of Georgia, there was a glaring absence in this week’s NATO Summit declaration: the small Caucasus nation was mentioned only once, in the context of urging Russia to withdraw its troops from the occupied regions of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali (South Ossetia). By omitting any reference to Georgia’s partnership with NATO, the declaration breaks with the alliance’s consistent reaffirmations since 2008 that Georgia would become a NATO member. This development raises serious concerns about the current state and future trajectory of NATO-Georgia relations.
The alliance’s decision to avoid any mention of Georgia’s NATO aspirations reflects growing unhappiness within NATO about the Georgian government’s increasingly antagonistic actions toward the West. These include adopting a Kremlin-inspired law labeling civil society as foreign agents, attacking free media, fostering a lack of judicial independence, demonizing all political opposition, and engaging in hostile, anti-western rhetoric (such as accusing the West of being enemies of Georgia and a “Global War Party”). Georgia’s ambiguous and at times friendly stance towards Russia, at a time when Russia is committing massive war crimes in Ukraine, has further complicated its relationships with the West.
An erosion of global relations
The NATO Summit decision follows a similar downgrading of relations with Georgia by the European Union. In its recent report on relations with Georgia, adopted at the June European Council meeting, the European Commission highlighted significant challenges in Georgia’s judiciary, media freedom, and political environment. The EU has now paused Georgia’s accession process and frozen 30 million Euros in assistance to the Georgian Ministry of Defense, linking the decision directly to the ruling Georgian Dream party’s approval of a controversial legislation seen as cracking down on free media, civil society and political opposition ahead of the October 26, 2024 parliamentary elections.
Georgia’s bilateral relations with several countries, including the strategic partnership with the U.S., have also been strained. The United States decided on May 30 to launch a full review of its relationship with Georgia. On July 5, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that Georgia would be excluded indefinitely from the upcoming multinational joint exercise “Noble Partner,” which was originally scheduled to take place in Georgia from July 25 to August 6. Germany mirrored America’s decision and also paused joint exercises with Georgia.
The Pentagon stated that its decision was due to “false accusations” by the Georgian government that the U.S. had twice attempted to overthrow the Georgian government and open a second front in the West’s alleged war against Russia over Ukraine.
“As such, the United States government has determined that this is an inappropriate time to hold a large-scale military exercise in Georgia,” said the Pentagon. The Georgian Defense Ministry called the U.S. decision “regrettable,” and said that the drills benefited “Georgia as well as the United States and its partner countries.”
The consequences
The implications of these shifts are profound. If NATO, the EU and the collective West turn their backs on Georgia, the country of 3.5 million people will find itself alone in dealing with Russia, which to this day occupies 20 percent of Georgian territory (a point consistently downplayed by the Georgian government). The risks to Georgia are amplified by Georgia’s strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and on shores of the Black Sea. For example, as Russia’s Black Sea Fleet faces increasing attacks by Ukrainian missiles and drones, Russia is constructing a new port and locating naval support ships in Ochamchire, in Georgia’s occupied Abkhazia region. This is a stark reminder that for Georgia, Russian expansionism poses a threat not only to Ukraine, but to Georgia as well.
Because of the ongoing Russian occupation and threats to Georgian sovereignty, the commitment to obtaining NATO membership has been a cornerstone of Georgia’s foreign policy for years. Indeed, it is written into the country’s constitution. In the past few years, however – especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine – the Georgian government has gradually distanced itself from the West and instead sought improved relations with Russia (which the Georgian government claims ensures peace and stability in Georgia). The NATO Summit declaration’s omission of Georgia can therefore be seen as a victory for Russia and a major loss for Georgia.
The Georgian people overwhelmingly support NATO and EU membership. They deserve a government that aligns with their aspirations. Over the past few months, however, the message from the West has been clear: the policies of the current Georgian government are moving the country away from Euro-Atlantic integration. The recent NATO Summit is only the most recent example.
But there is still an opportunity to change course. These messages from the West should serve as a wake-up call for the Georgian government. It needs to address such concerns head-on, by implementing genuine reforms, guaranteeing free and fair elections, reaffirming Georgia’s strategic orientation toward the West, and demonstrating a steadfast commitment to the principles that underpin both the EU and NATO. Rebuilding trust with NATO and the EU is imperative.
If the government does not do this, the pathway to change is through elections. Provided they are free and fair, Georgia’s October 26 parliamentary elections offer the Georgian people a chance to demand that their next government reaffirm Georgia’s commitment to democracy, reform, and Euro-Atlantic integration. Opposition parties need to unify around such a message to give the Georgian people a clear choice. The stakes could not be higher.
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