It may seem early to be drawing lessons from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, but one of the world’s most powerful militaries has already reached some conclusions.
China’s People's Liberation Army (PLA) has published a list on social media under the heading "Five Lessons From U.S.-Israeli Strikes On Iran" – ranging from what it called the "coldest reality" of "superior firepower" to the need for "self-reliance," the dangers of "blind faith in peace" and the "deadliest threat" of an "enemy within." Experts said the unusual public message was likely intended for multiple audiences – the PLA rank and file, the domestic public in China, and for the U.S. and the West as well.
“I was surprised that China would put something like this out there for the public’s edification – usually they keep things very close to the vest,” Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, a former CIA director of East Asia Operations, told The Cipher Brief. “The messages are clear: we’re taking care of the ‘enemy within’ — anyone who disagrees with us inside – and we see the ‘superior firepower’ of the U.S. and the perils of a ‘blind faith’ in peace. So we’d better get our act together.”
The Cipher Brief asked several experts on China and its military to assess the broader meaning of the PLA’s “lessons” – and what they may portend for Taiwan and other contingencies.
“It’s kind of a revelation of what they’re thinking and feeling, and I think the objective is to alarm internally,” Orville Schell, Director of the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations, told The Cipher Brief. “It’s surprising that they’ve articulated these publicly, in such a stark way.”
The five lessons
The “Five Lessons” were posted by “China Military Bugle," a multimedia messaging system run by the PLA News Media Center. The Bugle posts to domestic platforms in China and to global sites including X, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube. The post was presented as a graphic with text in both English and Mandarin Chinese, and in its entirety, it amounted to a mere 27 words:
- Deadliest Threat: The Enemy Within
- Costliest Miscalculation: Blind Faith in Peace
- Cruelest Paradox: The Illusion of Victory
- Coldest Reality: The Logic of Superior Firepower
- Ultimate Reliance: Self-Reliance
Taken together, experts said the lessons serve simultaneously as a critique of the U.S., a warning against complacency within PLA ranks and in Chinese society generally, and a message for the rest of the world: Don’t underestimate China’s strength and resolve.
“There are many messages here, in these ‘lessons,'” Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations expert, told The Cipher Brief. “One message is that the writer thinks Chinese have to be very realistic and trust nobody. Another is, let Chinese be serious about the lethality of the American weapons. And the writer thinks that as Chinese people, they should not be so innocent to believe that America is peace-loving.”
Experts said the “blind faith in peace” was a reference to Iran’s ill-fated negotiations with the U.S., and the “logic of superior firepower” an acknowledgement of the ferocity of the U.S.-Israel attacks.
The war against Iran began just two months after U.S. forces removed the leader of Venezuela, another ally of China, and experts said that the two seismic events – different as they are – may have prompted the PLA post.
“The lessons sound more like a message for China itself rather than for others,” Yun Sun, Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, told The Cipher Brief. “The implied message is a hardline position on the U.S. and a criticism of the American fake promise of peace. The PLA is using this line to indoctrinate its own armed forces about the constant need to prepare for war and not to trust Americans.”
“What they’re basically saying is, we can’t be weak,” Amb. DeTrani said. “They’re saying, unless there’s strict discipline, unless we all march to the same tune and we all understand the importance of protecting our vital issues, we will be abused.”
Schell and DeTrani both noted that China has a history of closely studying other nation’s wars for such lessons, often hunting for clues as to how a future U.S.–China conflict, likely centered on Taiwan, might unfold.
No specific military theaters are mentioned in the PLA “lessons,” but experts said any messaging about war and military preparedness from Beijing carries meaning for Taiwan. In this context, the five “lessons” can be read as a warning against overconfidence within the PLA (“Illusion of Victory”); a reminder that any U.S.–China negotiations won’t necessarily preclude sudden military action (“Blind Faith in Peace”); and acknowledgment of the power and high-tech sophistication of the U.S. military (“Logic of Superior Firepower”).
“The message for the PLA is, ‘Yes we can dialogue with people, and we can dialogue them to death – but don’t for one minute think that you’re going to get anywhere,” Schell said. “And a second message is, ‘they’re out to get us and we have to be reliant on ourselves in every way possible.’”
The “deadliest threat”
Perhaps the most interesting – and cryptic – of the PLA “lessons” was the first, which read in full, “Deadliest Threat: The Enemy Within.”
It’s a concern that experts say is reflective of a longstanding fear of dissent within China – and heightened by evidence that betrayals in Iran had allowed for infiltration by the Central Intelligence Agency and Israel’s Mossad.
“Clearly Israel has taken advantage of people inside Iran who are willing to betray their country,” Shen said. “There must have been traitors inside Iran. This was an ‘enemy within.’ So that is a lesson for China.”
Yun Sun echoed the point. “The ‘enemy from within’ refers to the many traitors willing to work with the Israelis,” she said. “That’s also a reference against any dovish illusion within China about the U.S.”
Sun and other experts also noted that the PLA “lessons” were posted in the midst of Xi Jinping’s unprecedented purge of senior military officers – a years-long campaign that has recently gutted the highest echelons of PLA leadership.
“I immediately thought of Xi Jinping and the purges that are ongoing in the People's Liberation Army and beyond,” Amb. DeTrani said. “To Xi and to China, that’s an ‘enemy within.’ The message is that unless we are united, unless we all march to the same tune, unless we’re in sync, we will be vulnerable…‘Enemy within’ speaks to some of the logic behind the purges.”
“In the People’s Liberation Army, there are so many corrupt officials, and our leader keeps cleansing them,” Shen said. “But the fear is, how can the leaders be sure that corrupt people will not sell secrets to China's enemies? How can this country be sure it does not also have an ‘enemy within’?”
The U.S. – not a “paper tiger”
Experts told The Cipher Brief that two elements of the Iran war have likely surprised China the most: The fact that it was launched while negotiations were underway; and the ferocity of the joint U.S.-Israeli operations.
“I think they are surprised by the war,” Schell said. “They’re used to America being more wishy-washy, and not going so quickly to the gun.”
DeTrani agreed that attacking during a negotiation likely surprised Beijing, as did Trump’s bravado in taking out two foreign leaders – Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – in less than two months.
“I think they may have been surprised with that, and also some of the statements from the president saying that we will have a hand in deciding what the new leadership will look like…and that we’re looking for unconditional surrender,” Amb. DeTrani said. “These things probably surprised China, and made them wonder: is there a message for issues that are close to them, like Taiwan and the South China Sea?”
A clear takeaway, Shen Dingli said, was that the U.S. isn’t a “paper tiger,” as some Chinese officials have suggested. “President Trump says he doesn’t want war, and that he has settled 8 conflicts, and he wants the Nobel Peace Prize,” Shen said. “This is one side. But he has another side – he can ruthlessly execute a war. He can send a Delta Force to Venezuela. He bombed Iran last June. And he bombed Iran again. So in China, after seeing such frequent use of deadly weapons, one has to have a serious look at the superior force of the U.S. The U.S. is a real tiger. Not a paper tiger.”
The PLA’s “Illusion of Victory” lesson, Shen said, is a warning against complacency within the PLA.
“If the U.S. can so easily target the Iranian leader [Ali] Khamenei, would the U.S. know where all the Chinese leaders are?” he said. “This could be a sensitive concern – the intelligence, and also the military capability to penetrate deep sites – with its earth-penetrating, bunker-busting weapons.”
A message for Washington
If the PLA’s lessons carry a message for the U.S., it may be that American policymakers shouldn't be overconfident either – despite their strength and the upheaval underway in China’s military.
“The external message – and it’s interesting that it comes in advance of the Trump summit with Xi – is that there are elements in the government that want to go on record that they are not going to be easily convinced of our good intentions,” Schell said. “I think it’s a warning also – a ‘Don’t tread on me’ kind of warning to the West.”
The message to the U.S., Amb. DeTrani said, is clear: “We’re united, we’re militarily strong, you will not be able to abuse us any longer. We are ensuring that we’re all in sync – we know what our objectives are and what our national security interests are.”
Beyond the five lessons, experts say the war brings both challenges and potential benefits to China. One “win” for China may come if the U.S. gets bogged down in the region, and expends more of its military resources.
“The US is depleting its shrinking arsenal in the Middle East,” American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Dan Blumenthal wrote on Wednesday. “The fact that, four years into the Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S. faces munitions shortages for weapons systems that matter in a potential China-Taiwan scenario—from air and missile defense interceptors to Tomahawk cruise missiles—is nothing short of scandalous.”
But Blumenthal also noted that the war may unnerve Beijing. “It will enhance their concerns that Trump is an unpredictably ruthless power broker,” he said. “Xi Jinping will view him as a force to be reckoned with who is not signing on to the idea that America is declining or will back away from a fight.”
Or, as the PLA might put it, China must respect the “logic of superior firepower” – and avoid “blind faith in peace.”
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