Today, five years after democratic protests against Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s regime turned into open civil conflict, the ebb and flow of inconclusive military campaigns has, according to United Nations (UN), cost roughly 250,000 lives—what many see as a conservative estimate. From this cauldron of conflict, groups like ISIS have risen to become global terrorist threats and, as FBI Director James Comey warned on Wednesday, even if these groups are defeated in Syria, their adherents may simply escape to wreak havoc in Europe. “At some point there’s going to be a terrorist diaspora out of Syria like we’ve never seen before,” Comey said.
However, perhaps more important than this threat is the number of Syrians who have been forced from their homes. According to Amnesty International, roughly half of Syria’s 23 million people have been displaced by conflict, and of those displaced, some 4.8 million have left the country entirely to become international refugees. Spread mostly across the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe, the immediate plight of these refugees, and the pressures they place on regional and global host countries, has attracted wide media coverage.
Yet it could be the make-up, rather than the number, of these refugees that presents the most pressing long term threat to Syria’s stability. As Syrian activist, photo journalist, and Cipher Brief expert Loubna Mrie laments, “what frightens me most is the scarcity of educated and intellectual youth left in the country.” The young, the educated, the middle class, in other words those citizens which Syria will desperately need to rebuild, have fled the violence in droves.
This should come as no surprise. According to the UN, some 13.5 million people within Syria are in need of humanitarian assistance as continuous conflict ravages the country’s economy. The Syrian Center of Policy Research (SCPR) estimates the total destruction of physical infrastructure in Syria has reached $75 billion, while the country’s GDP contracted at an annual rate of 19 percent in 2015, and inflation is estimated to reach 25 percent in 2016. The UN reckons that Syria will need an investment of some $180 billion to reach pre-conflict levels. Add to this economic malaise the constant threat of physical violence, the danger of mandatory military conscription for young males, and widespread repression by regime and rebel forces alike, it is no wonder that Syria is being drained of its professionals, its educated youth, and its middle class.
In search of refuge, these most productive members of society have fled to neighboring countries like Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq. In Lebanon alone, Syrians now make up over one quarter of the entire population. However, conditions there are hardly sustainable. None of the four largest host countries recognize these Syrians as refugees, which in addition to local laws and discrimination, makes it very difficult for them to find legal work. In addition, the lack of established camps drives many out of reach for international aid organizations, while a 39 percent shortfall in UN humanitarian fundraising in 2015 has led the organization to cut vital programs.
For most, the job opportunities and higher standard of living available in Europe are the goal. Syrians have filed nearly a million applications for asylum in Europe, with Germany and Sweden as top destinations. However, the number of available asylum slots are limited. Germany has provided the largest pledge at 39,987, representing roughly 54 percent of the European total, hardly enough to meet demand. Rather than wait, many turn to the sea, where smugglers will ferry them across the Mediterranean. Here again, the cost demanded by the seaborne smugglers, at averages of around $2500 per person, can self-select wealthier Syrians, though they may be forced to sell most of their assets in order to make the trip. Available data is patchy, but this pattern is reflected in studies by aid organizations and host countries. According to Swedish estimates, roughly 40 percent of Syrians who arrive in Sweden have upper-secondary education or higher, a high ratio amongst refugee populations.
Photo credit: Loubna Mrie
So, once they have braved violence, overwhelmed refugee camps, and treacherous seas to reach their destination, will these people ever return to rebuild their country?
This is a difficult question to answer. Because so many have either liquidated their assets in Syria to fund their escape or lost their belongings to bombings or seizure, refugees have lost much of their real, physical connection to the country. At the same time, the longer the conflict drags on, this connection becomes more and more intangible, especially for the younger generation. As Cipher Brief expert Ammar Almamoun, a Syrian journalist studying at the Sorbonne in Paris, explains, those Syrians who are “growing up in the camps or live outside Syria have a huge problem relating to the country itself…for them it’s just a fictional set of stories from their parents or the media.”
However, for Rasha Elass, Global Fellow with the Project for the Study of the 21st Century (PS21) and Cipher Brief expert, the answer is a solid “yes,” they will return. Despite the “major brain drain,” which has occurred over the past half-decade, she is confident that “Syrian expatriates will help Syria en masse if they are able to. When the war is over, they will contribute as much as the government allows them to… They will not abandon their country.” Yet, for this to work, they must be given the proper incentives and protections to ensure that they can return in safety and prosper.
In the end, much will depend on the political circumstances of the war’s end. Those circumstances are unclear. The only thing that is certain is that any future Syrian state will find it difficult to succeed without the passion, intellect, and productive potential of a full 20 percent of its population. Fortunately, according to Loubna Mrie, “These Syrian youths [and refugees] have been forced from their country, but they remain the foundation of a new Syria.” They are ready and willing to rebuild what was lost.
Fritz Lodge is an international producer at The Cipher Brief.
