CIPHER BRIEF SUBSCRIBER+ANALYSIS — Ukrainians are striking Russian targets in Crimea - barracks, munitions depots, air defense batteries, logistics hubs, even Russian warships thanks to newly arrived American weapons which are featuring regularly in the Ukrainian attacks. In one theater of the war at least, Ukraine appears to be winning.
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
Crimea represents a critical prize for both sides; a supply route for Russian forces, proximity to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, a pathway to the Black Sea for grain shipments and other commerce, and – less important strategically – it’s also a well-known and well-trafficked destination for tourists.
Crimea also matters to both sides for historical reasons. Russian President Vladimir Putin has often put the region front and center in his arguments for Russian primacy in Ukraine; Ukrainians have emphasized the peninsula's centuries-long connection to Ukraine as an extension of the mainland. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said often that the war "began with Crimea and must end with Crimea — with its liberation."
The Ukrainian military recently hit Russian S-400 and S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems in Crimea along with strikes against the Belbek airbase in Crimea, which Ukrainian officials said had destroyed two MiG-31 fighter jets and a nearby S-400 system, and set a fuel depot ablaze. On May 30, Ukraine claimed to have hit a Russian ferry crossing in Crimea with U.S. long-range ATACMS missiles. The crossing was “actively used” as an alternative route for supplies to the peninsula.
The Cipher Brief tapped three of its prominent military experts for an assessment of the situation in Crimea: two former NATO commanders, Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) and General Phillip Breedlove (Ret.) and Lt. General Ben Hodges (Ret.), who commanded US Army forces in Europe. "In military doctrine, we would call it the decisive terrain," Hodges told The Cipher Brief. "Whoever controls Crimea is going to win this war."
THE CONTEXT
- Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and sent troops to the peninsula to enforce its illegal occupation there.
- For Ukrainians, Crimea is the reason why Russia’s February 2022 assault against their country is referred to as the “second invasion,” or “full-scale invasion,” and why they are quick to remind foreigners that they have been at war with Russia for a decade.
- Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have struck Russian vessels belonging to the Crimea-based Black Sea Fleet and its main base in Sevastopol. The attacks have forced much of the Black Sea Fleet to relocate further east, including to the Novorossiysk base.
- Ukrainian sea drones have also hit Crimea's Kerch Strait bridge, a key supply link for Russian military operations in the peninsula, in October 2022 and again in July 2023, and several reports suggest another strike on the bridge may come soon.
- The most recent Ukrainian attacks on Crimea come after the Biden administration gave the green light for Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons for strikes on targets inside Russia. The shift is focused on the northeastern Kharkiv region, where Russia launched a new offensive last month.
- Putin has complained that the Western weapons used by Ukraine have been effective in destroying Russian air defenses and disrupting military supply lines, and warned of grave consequences should those attacks continue.
THE EXPERTS
THE ANALYSIS
The Cipher Brief: What’s changed in Crimea that is shaking up the status quo?
Hodges: One thing is the U.S. has allowed Ukraine to have the 300-kilometer range ATACMS (missiles). That's significant because as the SACEUR (Supreme Allied Commander Europe) General (Christopher) Cavoli said, you can defeat mass with precision if you have enough time. And you do that by targeting headquarters, logistics and artillery. Because without those three things, it doesn't matter how many troops you have, they're not going to accomplish anything. So by taking out artillery headquarters and logistics, you negate the only advantage the Russians have. So that's why this 300-kilometer range is so important, and that's why you're seeing more trouble in Crimea for the Russians as they're getting pounded there.
Stavridis: Russian strikes against Crimea are gradually increasing in severity, fueled by a combination of U.S. intelligence and longer-range, heavier-gauge weapons, notably ATACMS. While it’s too soon for these to have decisive impact, these strikes against what is clearly Vladimir Putin’s top-priority conquest will only increase as F-16 aircraft arrive on scene this summer.
Breedlove: It's a very big deal. Crimea is the key terrain in how this fight begins to resolve itself. For nations and for companies looking to invest in Ukraine, they're going to want to see security and rule of law, and as long as Russia holds Crimea, Russia can hold at risk the main routes in and out of Ukraine in the Northern Black Sea. So, that security aspect is important. What you see now, is that Ukraine has for some time now understood the importance of Crimea and they have begun a dedicated campaign to deny Crimea to Russia. Frankly, I believe it's really beginning to work for them.
The Cipher Brief: Why is Crimea so important in the broader scope of the war?
Stavridis: Crimea is at the dark heart of Vladimir Putin’s false narrative of "Ukraine has always been Russian.” It is personally of immense importance to him and to the leadership clique in the Kremlin. The Russians remember well the presence of European troops there – from the UK, France, and Italy – 180 years ago, during the Crimean War, which ended in a humiliating defeat for the Russian empire. It also has the best naval facilities on the Black Sea, access to Black Sea oil and gas, and provides a repair facility for the Southern front in the war. For all these reasons, Russia will fight hard to maintain control of Crimea.
Hodges: Crimea is the key to this war. In military doctrine, we would call it the decisive terrain. Whoever controls Crimea is going to win this war. For the Russians, of course, it's important to them because it allows them to dominate the entire Black Sea. Where, by the way, we have three NATO allies. And it's a launching pad for them to attack all over Ukraine, which they have been doing.
For Ukraine, they have to be able to liberate Crimea, for economic purposes and to deny the Russians the use of that platform. The Ukrainian Navy used to be based there, so the Ukrainians know where everything is. The difference now is they can reach it with lots of ACTAMS. They are proving the concept that with precision, you can begin to make Crimea untenable. Every square meter of Crimea is now in range of some Ukrainian weapon. So it's a matter of time. They can't stay there.
The Cipher Brief: What specifically are the Ukrainians targeting in Crimea?
Breedlove: We first saw the Navy being attacked, then we saw some fixed munitions storage locations. Then we started seeing some military command and control, and now we're starting to see attacks against the strategic radar capability. Once you take down those strategic radars in Crimea, then the drones and things that Ukraine launches will be far more effective. And so you see a very smart rollback campaign of these critical capabilities for their fight, but also their ability to protect themselves, which makes them more vulnerable.
Stavridis: The Ukrainians are focusing on two principal target sets: command and control centers – hoping to kill senior Russian commanders and planners – and Russian air defense systems. The latter strikes, against S-400 and S-300 air defense systems in Crimea, seem designed to open up the battle space for F-16 strikes.
The recent strikes against the Black Sea Fleet are incredibly important and under appreciated. If Russia had been able to use the more than 60 warships in their Black Sea Fleet to choke off Ukrainian exports of agrarian products, for example, the impact would have been devastating. Instead of Putin gaining control of the seas throughout the Ukrainian coastline of the Black Sea, his remaining functioning warships – and nearly 40% have been sunk or knocked out of action – are relegated to distant patrolling off the coast of Russian-occupied Georgia. In effect, out of the fight.
Hodges: Headquarters, logistics, artillery, and of course the port. They (the Ukrainians) know exactly where the maintenance facility is, the fuel facility, where the ammunition is stored, where the piers and docks are where Russian ships might be. They've already hit the dry dock. And even I as an infantry soldier know that if you destroy the dry dock, they can't do maintenance on their ships, not significant maintenance, which is part of the reason they're having to relocate. And they destroyed the Black Sea Fleet headquarters, which is also part of the reason they had to relocate. And when they destroyed the dry dock, there was a submarine and another ship in there. This is brilliant targeting.
If you think about how Ukraine wins in Crimea, you do three things: Number one, you make it untenable. And that's what they're doing now. They're making it untenable, so that the Russians can't stay there. There's been special forces attacks that have destroyed radar and air defense. There's been maritime drones, there's been unmanned aerial systems, air drones, and now you've got precision weapons.
The second thing that has to be done is you isolate it, and the way you isolate it is you destroy the three ways that aid gets to or resupply or anything gets in and down. Number one is the big Kerch bridge. Number two is the railroad that runs from Rostov into Crimea. And then the third is you destroy the ships and ferries that can move stuff back and forth.
The Cipher Brief: What is the value of the Kerch Bridge, and how does that factor into how the Ukrainians are approaching Crimea?
Breedlove: The Kerch Bridge remains key, and Russia has built a rail line through the occupied portions of Ukraine in the Southeast, and those two quarters are coming under attack. And I expect to see Ukraine continue to focus on them. I expect to see Ukraine drop multiple spans of the Kerch Bridge, or at least damage them to the point where they're unusable. And I expect to see Ukraine bring under fire this new rail line, because if you cut off Crimea, it will wither and Russia will withdraw just like they have withdrawn in a naval sense already. And I think that is a focused effort of Ukraine.
Hodges: I think the Ukrainians will drop that bridge when they're ready. It's obviously going to be a huge effort because the Russians know how vulnerable that thing is and its high density of air defense and all kinds of things. So the Ukrainians, I am confident, will have figured out a plan that will involve all sorts of different things in order to severely damage, if not destroy, or drop a span of that bridge. Then you've got Crimea isolated as well as unusable.
Stavridis: It’s a juicy and symbolic target, and over time it will be irresistible. But Crimea’s air defenses should come first.
The Cipher Brief: Have ATACMS helped turn the tide in ways the Ukrainians were hoping?
Hodges: The greatest thing that the Ukrainians have always needed from us was long-range precision strike capability. Whether that's coming off the wings of an airplane or out of a rocket launcher or out of a HIMARS (rocket launcher), or however it gets there. It's that long-range precision strike that makes a difference.
The Ukrainians probably have a pretty good plan for sequencing and for priorities. I can imagine what's going on is exactly what would be happening in any U.S. unit, where everybody's saying, Hey, I need you to hit my target. I need my target to hit. So the big commander has to prioritize, because you can't hit everybody's target.
Breedlove: Yes, they have them, but they have relatively few of them. The United States made a big press splash that they're giving them the long-range ATACMS, but they gave them a very small number. We remain nearly completely deterred by Mr. Putin's threats. And so the West and specifically the United States has been very, very stingy in what they supply. So we've given them more of the shorter-range ATACMS, some of the oldest, but we've given them very precious few of the long-range unitary warhead ATACMS that are so critical to this fight. And that's something that we still need to address.
American policy is still deterred by Mr. Putin. His war of threat and intimidation is his most successful weapon right now. So we need to be thinking about giving them more of the long range-capability, to continue to strike very effectively into Crimea, but not only into Crimea. Remember that western policy, specifically American policy, have built sanctuaries for Russia inside Russia and Belarus and other places, and Russia uses that sanctuary to stage, organize and launch forces into Ukraine. And we need to give Ukraine the ability to strike those forces before they reach into Ukraine.
Stavridis: The key is that ATACMS and HIMARS can deliver far greater payloads than drones. When F-16s enter the fight, that strike capacity will jump again. All allies should be pushing the F-16 program to fruition as rapidly as possible. It is a shame we waited so long to get it in train, but it will be crucial for the Ukrainians.
Breedlove: I flew the F-16 off and on for 24 years. It is a magnificent weapons system and capability, but I have a note of concern in that there's less than half a dozen pilots ready and a few airplanes ready and all of a sudden the world thinks this is going to be a major change to the war. It will not. The F-16 will have a big impact on this fight, but it will take time. As they build the number of pilots and as they bring on more aircraft and we get to maybe a squadron's worth of capability, we'll start to see some real impact in this war by the F-16 and we have to acknowledge a few things.
The Ukrainian Air Force did an amazing job with a very small, very old, very under-supplied air capability. They did wonderfully. We helped them a lot and we can't really discuss all the things we did to help them, but they were smart and they husbanded their capability and used it in a very intelligent way. That is what we also have to do with the F-16. If we just charge out there with every F-16 and go willy-nilly, they'll get shot down and then people will be discouraged by the overall effort. We need to husband the resources, use the resources and begin to mature the pilots. The pilots were fighter pilots already, most of them, and they're very good at basic fighter skills. But imagine, if someone put you in an Formula One racer car and put you on the circuit in Monaco, how good would you be the first time you drove the car? So these pilots jumping into these F-16s, they're going to make a difference, but it's not going to be on day one. We're going to have to mature, grow, experience this force and then it will have a long-term impact on what goes on in Ukraine.
The Cipher Brief: What indicators will you be looking for to assess whether the war is shifting in a meaningful way for Ukraine?
Hodges: How many ships are still left from the Black Sea Fleet? How fast and how much they actually move from there, that will be an indicator that they realize that they can't use Crimea any longer.
And then of course, Ukrainian and I suspect U.S. intelligence, knows how much of the remaining airfields are still operational. What kind of air operations are they running out of there? And then the logistics — they'll probably be watching how much is going in via the railroad, the bridge, or the ferries. When that starts really decreasing, then that will look like the Russians are realizing there's no point in continuing to put fuel and ammunition in there, because they're going to be going the other direction.
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