For months, the U.S. president tried to play peacemaker, but Viktor Orban’s friend in Moscow ignored him – escalating missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and expanding hybrid warfare across Europe. Putin’s resolve to escalate only makes Trump look weak, and Trump does not tolerate looking weak. Now he appears to be bringing a stick to the negotiations. If Ukraine is indeed receiving Tomahawk missiles, things will only get worse for Putin. And for his friend in Budapest.
Orban appears to be sleepwalking into a crisis of his own making. His love affair with Putin has isolated him in Europe. His reliance on Russian oil threatens to result in an economic catastrophe if and when the oil stops flowing through Ukraine. His revanchist claims on Ukraine’s Zakarpattia Province has angered Kyiv, without winning Ukraine’s Hungarians to his side. And if he continues to provoke the drone superpower in Kyiv by violating Ukrainian airspace with Hungarian drones, he may one day find himself on the receiving end of a heavy stick.
How different things were in 1989, when more than 200,000 Hungarians gathered in Budapest’s Heroes’ Square for the reburial of Imre Nagy, the executed leader of the 1956 Revolution. The ceremony culminated in a bold seven-minute speech by a young Viktor Orban, who called for free elections and the withdrawal of Soviet troops still stationed in Hungary. It was that same Orban who during Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, condemned it as an “imperialistic action of pure power politics.” But by 2022, he was captured by Russian money.
Whether Orban harbors imperial ambitions or simply covets the totalitarian control exerted by a corrupt Kremlin, Hungary has become a bastion of Chinese and Russian influence in the heart of Europe and has actively supported Putin’s war and provoked Kyiv.
In May 2025, Ukraine’s Security Service exposed a suspected Hungarian military intelligence network, marking the first time an EU state had been caught spying against Kyiv.
Then in September 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that reconnaissance drones likely belonging to Hungary had violated Ukraine’s airspace, the first such reported breach. Kyiv accused the aircraft of scouting Ukraine’s industrial capacity along the border.
Orban even shrugged off the violation while speaking on a talk show, saying that Hungarian drones “either crossed or not” into Ukraine’s skies, before adding that “Ukraine is not a sovereign country” and Hungary was not its enemy, so there was no problem. This reckless attitude is reflected within his own government. In a leaked 2023 recording, Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky spoke of “breaking with the peace mentality” and entering “phase zero of the path to war.” This was the kind of language you’d expect from Moscow, not from the capital of a NATO ally.
That arrogance carries risks. In August 2025, Ukraine struck the Druzhba oil pipeline, cutting flows of Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia – the only EU states still addicted to Moscow’s energy. Kyiv had little reason to spare countries that blocked aid in Brussels, and the strike showed that Hungary’s dependence on Russian pipelines is a vulnerability Ukraine can easily exploit. That Hungary signed a deal with France’s Engie to buy liquefied natural gas changes nothing, since Orban says he has no plans to stop importing gas and oil from Russia.
What’s the point of Orban’s provocations? Does he really believe that Russia is winning a war that’s cost it over 1 million casualties? Does he truly believe that Hungary can reestablish the borders it had during the Habsburg Empire and help Russia dismantle Ukraine? Does he not see that he’s compelling the EU and NATO to adopt measures that will ultimately isolate Hungary and negate its baneful influence?
A rational politician in a small, landlocked country that’s benefited inordinately from its neighbors’ largesse would certainly sing a different tune. Instead, Orban is, like Putin, driving his country toward disaster.
It’s possible that the erstwhile Hungarian patriot has become a Hungarian imperialist who models himself on Moscow’s dictator. More likely, Orban and his legitimacy are trapped in the revisionist ideology that helped him consolidate power. According to him and his propaganda apparatus, Hungary was victimized in both world wars, whereas the reality is that it happened to ally with the wrong side, thereby bringing its troubles upon itself.
That narrative, and Orban’s dictatorial pretensions, appear to have outlived their purpose. His opponent, Peter Magyar, leads Orban by around 10 percentage points and is likely to win the parliamentary elections in April 2026. Investors are already betting that a change of government would unlock as much as €18 billion in frozen EU aid, roughly a tenth of Hungary’s GDP, fueling a rally in the Hungarian forint.
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Orban would be wise to change course and return to being the man who inspired thousands in 1989. He should stop pushing the Ukrainians, if only because that makes him look ridiculous. As Szabolcs Panyi, a Hungarian investigative journalist, has said, “Hungary’s army is wholly unprepared for any type of conflict with anyone. Ukraine’s army is so superior that it’s completely unrealistic that Orban would engage in direct fighting.”
Orban also declared that Hungary was “not afraid” to shoot down Russian drones if they violated his country’s airspace. Perhaps what he truly fears is cutting off the payments from Moscow that keep him loyal. In any case, Budapest would be the weak link in any European “drone wall,” should it soon be built. Still, the Russians seem to have been launching drones from ships, which would weaken any future drone wall.
As to the EU and NATO, Orban should realize that it makes no sense to bite, again and again, the hand that feeds you. Alas, Orban still has a long way to go. On October 1, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reportedly clashed with Orban at an EU summit in Copenhagen after the Hungarian leader disrupted talks on the bloc’s security strategy and aid for Ukraine.
His hostility has only sharpened since. On October 6, Orban accused Zelensky of using “moral blackmail” to push Ukraine’s EU bid, claiming Hungary had “no moral obligation” to support it.
Unless a miracle happens, Orban will lose and be thrown out of office. Hungary could then become what it was in 1956 and 1989: a beacon of hope for democracy and human rights.
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