Mr. Kim’s recent meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the new mutual defense treaty with the Russian Federation have developed into an alliance of unexpected consequences. The 15,000 North Korean troops assisting Russian forces in the Kursk region and the massive amount of artillery shells, drones and ballistic missiles provided to Russia for its war of aggression in Ukraine was a significant development that surprised many of the pundits who viewed North Korea as a distraction, confined to the Korean Peninsula.
Indeed, Mr. Kim’s presence in Beijing for the 80th anniversary of World War II Victory Day celebrations, standing next to Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin was testimony to China’s decision that North Korea cannot be ignored and a close alliance with North Korea is in China’s interest.
And certainly, last Friday’s parade and gala in Pyongyang on the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party was an emboldened Mr. Kim announcing to the world that North Korea has arrived and can not be ignored. In the presence of Chinese Premier Li Qiang, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Vietnam’s Communist Party Chief To Lam and others, Kim made it clear when he said North Korea “was a faithful member of Socialist forces… and a bulwark for independence… against the West’s global hegemony.”
Doubling down, North Korea at the military parade introduced their new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, the Hwasong-20, a solid fuel massive missile capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads and capable of targeting the whole of the U.S. Other weaponry, to include hypersonic and cruise missiles also were on display, making it clear that Mr. Kim was serious when he said North Korea would enhance its nuclear capabilities.
At a recent Workers’ Party Plenary session, Mr. Kim said he was prepared to meet with Mr. Trump, on the condition that the U.S. would accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. Mr. Kim spoke of fond memories of his previous encounters with Mr. Trump. And at the United Nations on September 29, after seven years of no-show, North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Kim Son-Gyong said North Korea would never give-up its nuclear weapons; to do so would be tantamount to giving up its sovereignty.
Indeed, North Korea succeeded in getting Russia to accept its nuclear weapons status. Russia was a member of the Six Party Talks with North Korea and actively assisted the U.S., South Korea, Japan and China in demanding that North Korea denuclearize completely and verifiably. Russia is now saying North Korea should retain and enhance its nuclear weapons and is probably assisting North Korea with its nuclear weapons program.
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Hopefully, China will not relent and continue to demand that North Korea denuclearize. Some say that China is now less committed to North Korean denuclearization than in the past. It’s likely this was discussed when North Korea’s Foreign Minister, Choe Son Hui, met with her counterpart in China, Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Interestingly, both participated in the Six Party Talks with North Korea, when Mr. Wang was the chairman of the Talks in Beijing and Ms. Choe was an adviser to Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Kwan, head of the North Korean delegation to the Talks.
North Korea’s goal is to have a normal relationship with the U.S. This is something Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong il, and grandfather, Kim il Sung, pursued since 1994. A relationship with the U.S. would give North Korea international credibility and access to international financial institutions for economic development purposes. It will also untether North Korea to China. It is no secret that historically, and even after Mr. Xi assumed power in China in 2013, the bilateral relationship between North Korea and China has been tense.
And indeed, given North Korea’s experience in dealing with the former Soviet Union in 1991, at the end of the Cold War, when Moscow downgraded relations with North Korea and in 1995, when Russia officially renounced the mutual assistance treaty with North Korea. It, therefore, should be obvious to North Korea that once the war in Ukraine is over, Russia’s need for continued North Korean assistance will end and the relationship will likely be downgraded.
This is the time for Mr. Trump to meet with Mr. Kim to talk about security assurances and a path to normal bilateral relations. The issue of North Korea’s nuclear status need not be the focal point for future discussions. It should, however, continue to be our goal, but at an appropriate time.
This column by Cipher Brief Expert Joseph Detrani was first published in The Washington Times.
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