CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – As supporters of Lebanon’s Shiite Muslim political party Hezbollah bury dozens of militants killed in small-scale clashes with Israeli soldiers since Hamas’s bloody terrorist attack in Israel on October 7, leaders of multiple militant groups backed by Iran, are weighing their next move.
Lebanese Hezbollah’s armed wing is vowing to escalate the violence that has gripped the Middle East if Israel launches an anticipated ground invasion in Gaza, saying in a statement released Wednesday that they have met with leaders of Hamas and the militant group Islamic Jihad to consider how to “achieve a real victory for the resistance”.
While the White House has been issuing statements of support and sending top advisors and military equipment to the region, U.S. officials are also grappling with the possibility of committing to a much heavier footprint if Hezbollah makes good on its vow.
“Hezbollah has already entered the conflict. In fact, Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Kassem, has said the group is already ‘in the heart of the battle.’ That being said, if Hezbollah follows through with its threats of ramping up attacks during a potential Israeli ground operation into Gaza, things could escalate dramatically,” Casey Babb, an Ottawa-based security policy advisor and fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, told The Cipher Brief. “And if that were to happen, the U.S. might find itself in a precarious situation where a military response is warranted.”
Analysts believe that if well-armed, well-trained Hezbollah militants make more audacious moves as the war continues, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) could struggle to sustain two fronts while countering incoming rocket bombardments targeting cities and military bases, forcing Washington to make a difficult decision as it considers the legal argument for protecting the estimated half a million American citizens living in Israel.
The Biden Administration has so far issued a series of public and private messages urging Hezbollah to avoid undertaking its own large-scale offensive as the U.S intelligence community ascertains what steps Hezbollah is likely to take going forward and how long its leadership is willing to wait on the sidelines. Adding further uncertainty, Hezbollah’s ordinarily fiery Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, has been quiet.
Why did Hamas Conduct a Terror Attack on Israel, and Why Now? Former CIA Chief of Staff Rodney Snyder and International Affairs Consultant Moshe Nelson weigh in exclusively in The Cipher Brief
To amplify its directive to Hezbollah and its financiers, Iran and Syria, to remain at bay, the U.S – which has drawn down its naval assets in the region in recent years –deployed two aircraft carrier groups, which consist of dozens of warships, to the Eastern Mediterranean, along with a team of top war planners, including a Marine Corps General well-versed in urban combat. Moreover, two thousand U.S. Marines are on hold to deploy if necessary, and the Pentagon has sent extensive volumes of equipment and ammunition to Israel.
Mark Murtha, a professor specializing in homeland security at Austria’s Leiden University and former DEA Supervisory Special Agent, stressed that the carrier group and support ships “will be poised to take further action if or when other actors engage in the conflict.”
“What I think will predicate further U.S. involvement will be a direct attack on U.S. assets and/or engagement by China, Russia, Iran, etc.,” he surmised. “We have even seen rockets and drones launched from the Yemeni coast and the USS Carney firing RIM-66M surface-to-air missiles to take out these 15 drones and four cruise missiles which were fired by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen as they were headed toward Israel.”
Murtha contends that a show of force in and of itself is a double-edged sword.
“A larger military presence of U.S. assets in the Middle East can be a deterrent; however, it could also be seen as provoking the opposition,” he continued. “It is a very tenuous situation, to say the least, and if the U.S. does not “play their hand” correctly, it could escalate the conflict.”
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin vowed earlier this month to supply Israel with the capabilities it requires to counter Hamas.
“Our support for Israel is rock solid. We’re working urgently to get Israel what it needs to defend itself, including munitions and Iron Dome interceptors,” he told NATO defense ministers. “And we will do so, even as we continue to support the people of Ukraine as they fight against Russian aggression.”
However, some experts insist that much more could and should be done. According to Babb, there are several positive aspects to the U.S. playing a more prominent role.
“For starters, it would be an opportunity for the U.S. to regain some of its lost international reputation, power, and leadership. In addition, it would signal to regional threat actors – from Hamas and Hezbollah to Iran, Syria, and other nations – that an attack on Israel is an attack on America, vital American interests, and key American values,” he said. “Further, at a time when the nation is divided, a larger role, a military response in the Middle East, could serve as a unifying force wherein Americans collectively see themselves as global defenders of democracy.”
Although faded from the headlines in recent years, the U.S. still has a contingency of anti-ISIS troops in and around the Arabian Coast, in northeastern and southeastern Syria, a nation whose leader Bashar al-Assad is also backed by Iran, in addition to neighboring Iraq, which boasts tens of thousands of Tehran-aligned, Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces. If U.S. troops were to be targeted by such factions in the broader region, it would no doubt ignite pressure on the White House, however adverse to falling into another potentially long and drawn-out war.
Former CIA Officer Sarah Adams, contends it will likely take more than Hezbollah for the U.S. to make a move.
“If the question changes to an uptick in attacks by Iranian proxy groups, then you tie in Hezbollah, the Houthis, and proxies in Iraq and Syria, that is where the potential gets higher,” she said. “I think our government is still uber-focused on war with China, though, it is going to be hard for the terrorists to pull them off this course. They still want to move on from terrorism, and I think this is a bump in the road from that, not a shifting of priorities back to fighting terrorism.”
Yet it remains to be seen whether Iran – the ultimate puppet master – will adhere to dissuasion warnings for long. The country’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, cautioned that Hezbollah could take a “preemptive action” against Israel ahead of its highly-anticipated ground invasion and insinuated that the opening of new fronts could not be ruled out should Israel continue bombing targets in Gaza. Iran and its proxy fighters in the region have made it abundantly clear that it continues to seek revenge against the U.S. for the early 2020 Trump administration’s killing of Iran’s spymaster, Qassim Soleimani.
Looking for a way to get ahead of the week in cyber and tech? Sign up for the Cyber Initiatives Group Sunday newsletter to quickly get up to speed on the biggest cyber and tech headlines and be ready for the week ahead. Sign up today.
Adding fuel to the fire is the immense anger that has prompted protests in Lebanon, Libya, Iran and Jordan to Yemen, Turkey, Egypt and Morocco – directed at Israel the U.S. In a joint statement, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah warned that if the war “does not stop and expands, it threatens to plunge the entire region into a catastrophe.”
Keeping the war limited to Gaza is likely a top priority for the Biden administration and America’s allies, but the introduction of Hezbollah – which poses a much more severe threat than Hamas given its extensive weapons arsenal and a trove of battle-hardened fighters – and a bevy of other Iran surrogates on the periphery, would be a game changer.
Not just Iran, but China, Russia and North Korea are all aware that President Biden is facing a re-election bid next year. With the war raging on in Ukraine, and now a new contender for foreign policy attention, the Administration knows it must demonstrate a strategic show of military support while adhering to the overall policy of keeping U.S. personnel out of harm’s way.
“The only way to get this war to align with his [President Biden’s] current defense strategy is to blame China and Russia, and they sure seem to be trying. I think the key way to prevent spillover is to keep overseas U.S. institutions safe like military bases and Embassies, as a big attack on one of those could change the calculus,” Adams explained. “The U.S. Embassy in Beirut is a key example as there are years of emotions tied up to the historic attacks there as well. Then, if anything happens in the U.S. homeland, it will change all posturing. Lastly, how voters perceive defense responses with an upcoming election in a few years may also affect/change strategy.”
Yet Babb perceives the war as an opportunity for Biden to bolster his popularity and global security – all while factoring in the China/Russia equation in the process.
“This serves as an opportunity to shape, craft, and accelerate a more articulate strategy which could be used to counter threats from Gaza, to Russia, to the Indo-Pacific. To avoid a larger spillover, though, the U.S. will have to exercise caution, restraint, and what I like to think of as ‘strategic patience,’ he added. “They will have to choose when, where, and how, carefully and they’ll have to ensure any potential involvement is calculated, taking into account how America’s adversaries, namely China and Russia, will react.”
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.
