CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – When Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump meet at the White House Monday, they will bring different ideas for resolving two of the most important and difficult conflicts in the Middle East. Netanyahu continues to push a no-holds-barred war in Gaza and an uncompromising position on Iran and its nuclear program; Donald Trump is looking to make deals on both fronts.
Publicly, Trump and Netanyahu will no doubt cheer the success of recent strikes against Iran and the coordination that was evident between the two nations during that 12-day war. In the wake of those attacks, Trump offered to negotiate with Iran, and he has repeatedly urged Israel and Hamas to accept what he calls a “final proposal” for a Gaza truce.
These are the latest in a series of efforts the President has made to make peace on the global stage. As a candidate, Trump promised quick solutions to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and since his second inaugural, he has expended significant diplomatic efforts on Iran and global trade disputes as well. And other than a few trade agreements, he has made no major deals as yet. Might the Netanyahu visit change that?
Experts say the hurdles involve domestic pressures on the Israeli Prime Minister, who has shown little interest in deals that don’t suit the right-wing nationalists in his government.
“For Netanyahu, there are domestic political concerns that are influencing his enthusiasm about proceeding with a ceasefire [in Gaza] or formal negotiations with Iran,” Jason Campbell, Senior Fellow at The Middle East Institute, told The Cipher Brief. “I think that will continue to be a flashpoint in his discussions with President Trump.”
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Ambassador Gary Grappo, whose diplomatic career included high-level postings in Oman, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, said that Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear program – something Netanyahu clearly wanted the U.S. to do – may help him press the Israeli leader to halt his campaign in Gaza.
“Donald Trump jumped into a fray that initially he was very reluctant to join, and had said so publicly before Israel started its first series of attacks on Iran,” Amb. Grappo said. He expects Trump to use that “big favor to Israel,” as he called it, in his discussions with Netanyahu.
A rare rift
Although President Trump has boasted frequently of his close relationship to Israel – the country “has never had a better friend in the White House,” he said during his first term. But he has stymied Netanyahu several times since his return to office.
The last time the Israeli Prime Minister came to the White House, Trump refused to give him a green light for attacking Iran, and just days before Israel’s strikes last month, he said publicly that such attacks would be “inappropriate.”
Earlier this year, Netanyahu was reportedly furious to learn that the Trump administration had negotiated directly with Hamas to free U.S. hostages, and that the White House had ended its campaign against Houthi militants without informing Israel. It didn’t help matters that when Trump took his four-day visit to the Middle East in May, he chose to leave Israel off the itinerary.
After that trip, former White House Middle East adviser Dennis Ross told The Cipher Brief that “the Israelis are learning that President Trump is going to do what he decides is in our interests – we've seen a pattern recently of, ‘We'll do what we want, and it doesn't necessarily mean we feel their interests have to be taken into account.’”
It wasn’t a rupture of the relationship, Ross said, but it was highly unusual for a self-proclaimed “best friend” of Israel.
The June 22 U.S. bunker-buster strikes – which some referred to as a “favor” to Israel – appear to have swung the U.S.-Israel pendulum back in a more favorable direction. Netanyahu said as much last week, thanking Trump for his “steadfast stance” on Iran and his overall support of Israel. “I thank him for his consistent support of our country,” he said.
Deal or no deal, part one: The Gaza war
Since the strikes against Iran, Trump has been pressing Netanyahu hard – demanding almost, that he finalize a proposed 60-day ceasefire deal with Hamas.
This week, Trump wrote on social media that Israel had “agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize” the ceasefire, “during which time we will work with all parties to end the War.” The outlines of the deal include the release of the hostages – there are about 50 remaining in Gaza, and authorities believe fewer than half of them are still be alive. A return would happen in five phases during the 60-day truce, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. Israel would pull back troops from Gaza, and negotiations would continue over those 60 days to bring about the end of the war.
Hamas says it is weighing the proposal. Its prime demand is for assurances that the process produces an end to the war – but Israel hasn’t agreed to the plan either. Netanyahu has yet to commit to a final resolution to the war, only a temporary ceasefire, and he and his government are insisting on a complete dismantling of Hamas – both its military wing and government.
“There will be no Hamas,” Netanyahu said recently. “We will free our hostages, and we will defeat Hamas.”
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Meanwhile, two powerful members of Netanyahu’s coalition, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Ministry Itamar Ben-Gvir, are reportedly working to sabotage the deal, holding out for their demands that most of Gaza’s population be forced from the territory, and that an Israeli military government be established there.
Amos Harel, the military and defense analyst for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, wrote recently that Netanyahu was being forced to choose between repaying a debt to Trump and bowing to his coalition partners.
“Netanyahu, who owes Trump a considerable debt after the president mobilized on his behalf in the Iran campaign after defying the majority of his base in the Republican Party,” Harel wrote, “is still looking for a way to preserve his fragile coalition.”
Grappo believes the U.S. strikes against Iran may have changed the political dynamic in Israel, by allowing Netanyahu to show his right-wing cabinet that it pays to follow a U.S. lead.
“What has really changed is Iran,” Amb. Grappo said, “and specifically the decision of Donald Trump to enter the war as he did with the dropping of those bunker-buster bombs. And that is going to factor into the conversation they have about Gaza.”
The families of the Israeli hostages appear to understand the Iran connection. Several family members set up tables on Friday outside the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv, calling for "One Big Beautiful Hostage Deal."
Former hostage Keith Siegel, an Israeli-American who was freed earlier this year, told the gathering, "The leader who achieved a cease-fire with Iran can also deliver the deal of all deals in Gaza," adding, "This is our moment, the families are waiting. The 50 hostages are waiting."
Deal or no deal, part two: What's next for Iran?
Trump and Netanyahu will no doubt compare notes on the damage done by their strikes on the three Iranian nuclear sites. Trump’s insistence that the Iranian nuclear program was “obliterated” is not a view shared by the intelligence services of either country – and the Israelis in particular see the Iran issue as unfinished business.
“Item one on the agenda will be collaborating on the current status of the Iranian regime and its nuclear capabilities, and from that to assess how best to approach this in the near to medium term,” Campbell said. “What are the near and medium-term objectives? Can we come to some sort of an understanding or agreement there on how to pursue them?”
Campbell believes Trump will seek “some path to negotiation” on Iran, but he added that “it will remain to be seen the degree to which Netanyahu and Israel agree on the steps to be taken.”
While Trump sees the attacks on Iran as a potential opening for a deal – with the big “if” involving how Iran responds – Netanyahu and his right-wing cabinet members see a chance to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile programs once and for all. In this view, it’s a time to deliver knockout blows, not a moment for diplomacy.
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For this reason, Cohen says, Netanyahu wants U.S. backing for possible additional strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“We've bought time [with the damage done to Iran’s nuclear program], and from the Israeli perspective, they want to make sure that that time actually extends out as long as possible,” Cohen said. “My guess is Netanyahu is also going to be pushing to maintain the sanctions on Iran, and Trump has sort of shown a little bit of softness or openness to relaxing some of those. I don't think that's what Netanyahu would want.”
“There is some distance between the positions of Mr. Trump and the Israeli government, including Mr. Netanyahu, on Iran,” Amb. Grappo said. “And don't forget Mr. Trump has his right wing to answer to as well. It was known from the outset that some of his more hardline supporters were very much opposed to the American intervention in Iran and still are…They also see a real danger of the Americans being further entrapped in another Middle East war if the Israelis decide to press the advantage.”
The Saudi factor – and the Gaza “Riviera”
Beyond Gaza and Iran, President Trump’s “big, beautiful” Middle East deal involves another major power in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia. Trump’s singular foreign policy achievement during his first term was the so-called Abraham Accords, which produced peace agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. And he has made clear his wish to bring Saudi Arabia into those agreements.
The Biden administration was pursuing a Saudi-Israeli rapprochement as well, but all progress on that front ended abruptly with the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and the war on Gaza that followed. Saudi Arabia has insisted on a peace deal in Gaza and a plan for a Palestinian state as prerequisites for entering into any deal with the Israelis. Trump would love to be seen as the architect of this new and potentially critical piece of the Abraham Accords, and certainly the Israelis would love to see it happen.
“For Mr. Trump, this still remains his ace in the hole,” Amb. Grappo said. “It's something that Bibi Netanyahu very, very much wants to have. It would be a signature achievement to have normalization of Israeli-Saudi ties, but that's going to require an acceptable solution to the war in Gaza. And so that's an ace in the hole for Trump if he decides to play it.”
One thing is clear, as Netanyahu heads for Washington: Trump’s last big plan for Gaza – the idea that the U.S. would take over the territory and create a real-estate bonanza on the “Riviera” – is no longer in the conversation.
“I think it's been forgotten,” Amb. Grappo said. “Or at least it's been put on the shelf, and that shelf has over the years, become a library of plans for settling the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.”
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