“What we're going to see is funerals roll out over the next few days, and that's going to be our indicator as to the Hamas members who survived and those who did not,” Norm Roule, former U.S. National Intelligence Manager for Iran told The Cipher Brief in an exclusive interview.
Regardless of the success of Israel’s operation, experts are already assessing the broader impact of the strike – the first of its kind against a member country of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
THE CONTEXT
- Hamas, which launched a deadly terrorist attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, has maintained a political office in Doha since 2012.
- The U.S. ceasefire proposal includes the release of all 48 remaining hostages in exchange for a ceasefire, a release of potentially 2,500-3,000 Palestinian prisoners, and the end of the Israeli operation in Gaza.
- Since the strike in Doha, Hamas says it will not change its terms for a deal, including its demand for a total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and rebuking calls to disarm.
- After the strike, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that his administration was notified by the U.S. military that Israel would strike Hamas in Doha. He was critical of the unilateral attack on a key U.S. ally, saying it runs counter to peace efforts and “does not advance Israel or America’s goals.” But he described eliminating Hamas as a “worthy goal.” He said he assured the Qatari leadership that such an attack would not happen again and reiterated the need for a Gaza peace deal.
- Israel ordered a full evacuation of Gaza City on Tuesday, signaling that it is moving forward with a new military offensive there.
- As of last Thursday, Israel controlled 40% of Gaza City. The Israeli military says it occupies 75 percent of Gaza, while the UN says 87% is either deemed a militarized zone or is currently under evacuation orders.
THE INTERVIEW
The Cipher Brief spoke with Norm Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI - who travels regularly to the region for meetings with senior officials – about the most likely regional impact of Israel’s latest attack. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Norman T. Roule
Norman Roule is a geopolitical and energy consultant who served for 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He also served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I)\n at ODNI, where he was responsible for all aspects of national intelligence policy related to Iran.
The Cipher Brief: An Israeli attack inside of Qatar is a risky endeavor at this point in Israel’s war against Hamas. There has been a lot of conversation about whether the U.S. had a knowledge of this attack in advance and how the White House has responded since.
Roule: Well, the White House has stated that the Israeli government did provide advanced notice. That language is very important because although the president of the United States did give a final warning to Hamas - and the president's final warnings tend to indeed have some finality to them based upon previous examples - it is almost certain that the United States would not have participated in the planning of an operation against Qatar, virtually certain. And indeed the Israeli government would not have wanted the United States to be involved in something like this. But the Israeli government would've wanted to tell the United States, "Look, this is happening. So if your forces do see incoming aircraft, this is not an adversary's aircraft coming in. They should not see this as an attack on themselves."
The White House has stated that advanced notice was given, and I believe the reports state that the president instructed notification to the Qataris so that they themselves would have been able to understand that this is not, say, the Iranians conducting a strike. And also to understand that this strike had a very limited purpose. It was not part of a broader campaign, and that they themselves should not take any broader action to escalate the conflict.
The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is happening October 19-22 in Sea Island, GA. The world's leading minds on national security from both the public and private sectors will be there. Will you? Apply for a seat at the table today.
The Cipher Brief: What does this attack mean for the region? It creates a lot more complications in an already incredibly complicated war against Hamas.
Roule: I think it's important that we first consider some of the perspective about what this means in the region as a whole. Prior to the October 7th war, Israel's security doctrine was ‘we have a great intelligence service’. The superb military and allies will stand with us. But that didn't do much to stop the October 7th war.
Since that conflict, their doctrine has changed and we've seen in this latest attack, the latest chapter in that doctrine, which now is that ‘we have a superb intelligence organization and it will identify our adversaries who were out to kill us, and our military is going to get to them first-no matter where they are. And we will take out high value targets using precision military technology that is far beyond the capability of any of our adversaries. And this will be anywhere, wherever our adversaries may be’. This started out in Beirut and moved to Syria and then it turned to Iran with the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in 2024. And we've seen it recently in Sana'a. And now we've seen within the GCC itself. This is a brand new Middle East in this regard.
For the Middle East, as they look at Israel and some have asked whether Israel is a disruptive actor, I think that's the wrong characterization. But it is a correct characterization to say that Israel will not tolerate the presence of aggressive lethal actors plotting the death of Israelis anywhere in the region any longer. And indeed, just two days ago, the same actors that Israel attacked in Doha were meeting the Iranian foreign minister, I think in the same location where the Israelis attacked.
Qatar has always been a very special location in this regard because Qatar was sort of like a Switzerland, if you can use that example. For several years, people could meet there; the Taliban, Hamas, and various U.S. administrations tolerated this. Indeed, the Israelis sent their own personnel to meet Hamas interlocutors there, and these Hamas interlocutors had blood on their hands. Clearly, that has now come to an end.
So now the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is no friend of Hamas and has had its own issues with Qatar, will deliberate this issue. They will want to see how the dust settles. They will have a common position. They do not want this to escalate. But at the same time, they're looking at a region that is increasingly sensitive to this new Israeli posture.
The Cipher Brief: Doha responded robustly, condemning the attack. How do you think the U.S. should be influencing events moving forward?
Roule: The Qataris condemned the attack, unsurprisingly. This is a violation of their sovereignty. They've described this as a cowardly attack. They will certainly withdraw from playing a role as an interlocutor with the Israelis, that's unsurprising. This also means that the Qataris will call upon the GCC to stand with them in this position. And that's likely to happen.
They will ask the United States to restrain Israel from conducting similar attacks in the future and the United States will certainly do so. The United States does not wish to have a challenge, a problem of this nature with the Qataris for a number of reasons, ranging from our military relationship, to our security relationship, to our investment relationships with the Qataris. There are a variety of different reasons.
But the Qataris are going to want to maintain their domestic security, and they're not going to want to raise this as a broader problem.
At the end of the day, there's a reality that the Qataris have to deal with, too. Their commercial relationship with Iran through the South Pars Gas Field, that's not going go away. So their gas relationship is going to stay, but their engagement with Hamas, it's probably not going to be the same in the future - if only because most of the Hamas leadership is gone and the talks aren't going to continue.
I think in many ways, that the Trump administration's approach to the Middle East has been quite consistent and quite clear. They seek to ensure that there is no conventional war in the Middle East that involves U.S. forces. And that includes a conventional war in the Middle East that is instigated by Israel, and they've stuck to that. They will, however, participate in military action if Iran moves towards nuclear weaponization or militaries or terrorist attacks against the United States. And we saw that in June, but again, they ended that conflict rather crisply.
They will also pursue diplomatic activity robustly speaking with almost anyone – including Hamas - even if Israel is unhappy about it. They will speak with Iran, even if Israel's unhappy about it. But these have to be genuine talks. And if the Trump administration believes that their time is being wasted, as the president has repeatedly stated, then hell will be paid. And he's been quite clear on that. He will also provide military capacity to regional partners to conduct their own defense or regional offensive activities to achieve what they believe is necessary for their protection. And that could be regional actors conducting their own work against Iranian proxies, but also Israeli activities to conduct what it sees as its own work.
I think you might see the United States in essence, say to the region, ‘over to you to handle your own work, your own issues, because it's your problems to sort out increasingly’. As long as it doesn't create a disruptive conflict that ignites the region, as a whole.
The Cipher Brief: A solution to the Gaza conflict really does seem distant. We've talked now for a couple of years about what does the end state look like for Israel and it doesn't feel like we're any closer to an answer. What are the elements you’ll be looking for to indicate that a solution is on the horizon?
Roule: Well, here's another element where I've got to praise the Trump administration for a very consistent Middle Eastern policy. Again, whatever one's political views are, I can't think of another political administration in modern times that has devoted so much time and energy to the Middle East since its first moments in office. And we have seen even recently with the visit of former prime minister, Tony Blair and former special Middle East envoy, Jared Kushner to the White House, that even now, you see layers within layers within layers of activity and engagement and diplomatic engagement to try and come up with solutions that are outside of the limelight of what is a very contentious and very well-trodden diplomatic path. I do believe that we can see how this chaos will end. I don't know whether it will end in the near term or if we will ever get there, but you can see some elements of what the region is looking for.
So first, we will see some sort of humanitarian solution to provide the long-suffering Palestinians of Gaza with the food, education and medical care that they so desperately need to resolve what is rightfully a stain on our generation. And this is an enormous challenge because we now have some years of a population that have been denied these capacities, which has transformed the nature of this society. And I don't think we yet understand what this means as to who they will become.
What does it mean when you have teenagers who have not been to school for three or four years, who have not had education, internet, medical care, and have watched the world around them go in this direction? Who do they become in three to five years if they immigrate to other countries? Who are these people?
And I think we're going to see some solution involving the Gulf States and involving Gulf funding. And you're going to see Saudi Arabia and the Emirates in particular, provide education reform for the Palestinian authority or its successor. A reform of the engagement of the government, of the Palestinian entity with these people and its population so payments are made that don't support militancy and that human reform in terms of hiring is done that doesn't promote militancy.
And last, you're going to see some sort of capacity against corruption. Because that has, in essence, undermined the effectiveness of the Palestinian authority. You've got some problems here. You've got the issue of what do you do about the Palestinian authority, which was only supposed to be around for a few months and is led by someone who is terribly unpopular and doesn't seem to want to leave?
How is he handled in that political construct in the future? That issue will have to be resolved. You'll have some replacement entity created, perhaps involving the Palestinian authority or a successor. would think if I were creating this as an Arab-European construct with American leadership, you would want to have this supported by Israel, but not as an Israeli idea, but not blocked as an Israeli idea.
You're going to have to have something done to handle problem of settlers and the West Bank issue so that a viable political entity is at least a construct in people's heads. But in the short term, the idea of a Palestinian state is something that is very popular to talk about by people who, in essence, have the time to talk about it at coffee shops and in think tanks. But don't have to say, "Well, how do you do this on the ground in a Gaza or in a West Bank without, in essence, creating the same mess we have today?" That is years from happening.
So I think creating a state-like structure and then building towards a state at some point in the future where the adults on the ground are going to say, "We'll let the political actors or the people with time in their hands yak about a state, but we just want to get things working so that we can feed people and give them a life and then build toward that state." I think what I've just talked about in this messy way, those elements are all going to appear. But we're not there yet because the violence of Gaza remains a process. And the Israeli government is committed to a military solution. It doesn't seem to have an end game yet for what it sees in Gaza. Hamas appears to be moving hostages into Gaza City itself because it sees that as a way of putting more pressure on the Israeli government. So, we are still in this crucible of blood and violence for the near term, unhappily.
Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? There is no better place to get clear perspectives from deeply experienced national security experts.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.
