CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — As the Mali government grapples with political turmoil, a splinter faction of the militant group ISIS, known as ISIS-GS or ISIS in the Greater Sahara, has almost doubled the territory it controls in the West African country according to a United Nations report.
According to the authors, continuous attacks and bloodshed initiated by the group have weakened the authority of signatories to the 2015 peace deal – the government, a pro-government militia and an amalgam of groups pursuing autonomy in the north.
The report also finds that ISIS-induced violence has empowered and positioned al-Qaeda affiliate Jam’at Nusrat Al Islam Wa Al Muslimin (JNIM) as a more capable protector, as the ISIS and al-Qaeda outfits continue to fight for territory.
The spike in brutality comes three years after Mali’s president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was forced out in a coup, which led to a second coup orchestrated by Army Colonel Assimi Goita, who assumed the transitional presidential title in June 2021, despite widespread international condemnation.
“The Sahel has been a hotbed for militant activities, mainly JNIM and I.S. Sahel, in recent years. These groups, driven by various ideologies and motivations, continue to wreak havoc and destabilize the region,” said retired Air Force Lt. Col. Rudolph Atallah, who worked Africa counterterrorism issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, before retiring and becoming CEO of White Mountain Research “The consequences of their actions are far-reaching, resulting in the displacement of millions of innocent civilians who are forced to flee their homes in search of safety.”
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If the situation wasn’t grim enough, UN peacekeepers who deployed in 2013 as part of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) are on a stringent timeline to withdraw from the country by the end of this year, even as terrorist factions expand their footprint.
Deemed the deadliest UN mission in the world, with more than three hundred peacekeepers killed, the end of the 15,000-person force MINUSMA comes after officials in Bamako ordered the UN out in June. The UN Security Council subsequently voted to terminate the mandate, much to the chagrin of the UN panel, which has since stressed that the mission “played a crucial role” in instituting the agreement and mediating talks between the factions. More than one thousand peacekeepers are already reported to have left and the uptick in fighting has prompted UN officials to accelerate the withdrawal process.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, United States Ambassador to the UN, told the 15-member Security Council that the departure was a “recipe for disaster” that she said has “already triggered renewed violence on the ground,” which many fear will worsen as peacekeepers abandon six bases across the north, north-eastern and central pockets of the country by December 15. The U.S. Department of State also issued a statement in August, expressing “deep concern” of the “worsening violence,” particularly the attacks targeting peacekeepers.
“It is in the interest of U.S. allies in North Africa, Europe and the Middle East to contain and eliminate ISIS in the Sahel and Africa. Instability and insecurity have a ripple effect throughout Africa and Europe, such as terrorism, migration, refugee crisis, crime, narcotics trafficking, gun smuggling, and human trafficking,” said Royce de Melo, a Canada-based Middle East and Africa analyst and security and defense consultant. “And there is always the worry about the spread of Islamic extremism throughout the region and beyond.”
Also a cause for increased concern in Washington circles, is the influence of Russia’s Wagner Group, whose leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash, two months to the day after leading a rebellion against Moscow.
After taking over the Presidential position more than two years ago, Goita forged close ties with the Russian mercenary group, which has played a pivotal role in propping up government forces. While it remains ambiguous about the role Wagner will now play in Mali, Moscow’s presence in the country is expected to remain strong. And without a MINUSMA presence, the international community will be hamstrung to shield civilians caught in the crossfire.
The UN and Human Rights Watch (HRW) have extensively documented abuses by the Malian security forces and Wagner operatives throughout counterinsurgency operations in recent years. Last year, the joint forces were accused of slaughtering more than three hundred people in a single town, which the government denied.
In its report, the UN panel emphasized that “violence against women and other forms of grave abuses of human rights and international humanitarian law are being used, specifically by the foreign security partners, to spread terror among populations.”
“With Wagner mercenaries on the scene and helping to run the show in Mali, expect more atrocities and war crimes. But I fear that if or when, these crimes happen, they will not be reported or underreported, especially with the UN leaving, French troops gone, anti-West sentiment, and nothing there in place for the accountability of President Assimi Goïta, his military forces and Wagner. Remember that Wagner has a very good propaganda and media department, and they know how to control what news gets out,” said de Melo. “And we all know that when government forces carry out strong-hand tactics and atrocities on the civilian population by committing war crimes, people on the receiving end will react by often joining the terrorist groups the government is combatting.”
The alleged Wagner and government abuses are just the tip of the iceberg.
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HRW says it has chronicled extensive killings, rapes, and looting across northeast Mali this year at the hands of Islamist armed groups forcing thousands to leave their homes. The watchdog organization highlighted “mounting abuses” from July onward, echoing the sentiment that the wind-down of MINUSMA has only added to the bloodletting, and noted that the two bands “use a strategy of displacement to demonstrate their power and impose their authority.”
Atallah also emphasized that the withdrawal of peacekeepers has devastating effects on the local population in Mali. Thousands of individuals previously employed in support roles, are now left without jobs, amplifying an already dire economic situation.
“This sudden void has swiftly been filled by a combination of Wagner troops, FAMA (Malian Armed Forces), and militant groups. The presence and collaboration of these three entities are highly detrimental to the well-being of the country and its people,” he explained.
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The deteriorating security situation, exacerbated by a porous border and feeble economy, is further aggravated by the recent military coup in neighboring Niger.
“Since the coup, ISIS in the Greater Sahel has launched numerous attacks across the country,” Atallah said. “Refugees from Mali who sought refuge in Niger now have nowhere to go.”
De Melo also highlighted that while the coup might have given the terrorists in Niger a chance to catch some air and regroup, borders mean nothing to the terrorists.
“They go where they can, when they can and expand when they can,” he stressed. “Any chaos or government weakness is an opportunity for the terrorists; so, because of their shared borders, what happens in Niger with regard to the terrorist groups, will affect terrorism and terrorist activities in Mali and vice versa.”
All this makes the possibility of another war in the region a very real and jarring consideration, with the UN.panel saying that the 2015 peace deal, which largely safeguarded civilians against an Islamist insurgency, could crumble without U.N. arbitration.
They also say that what happens in West Africa, likely won’t stay in West Africa.
“The threat for the United States and Europe emanating from West Africa, including Mali, is currently growing. Although it is correct to argue that both ISIS and al-Qaeda are basing their local influence and social support on already existing local grievances, ISGS and JNIM continue to subscribe to the extremist terrorist ideology of ISIS and al-Qaeda, respectively,” said Dr. Hans Jakob-Schindler, Senior Director of the Counter Extremism Project (CEP). “One core aspect of either one of these terrorist ideologies is the obligation to attack those that are seen as enemies, for which in the al-Qaeda variant, the West is prioritized, and in the ISIS variant relates to everyone else outside ISIS, including targets in the West. Therefore, with the growing influence of these affiliates in West Africa and with the consolidation of their influence in the region, we have to expect increasing efforts in this regard.”
Jakob-Schindler said the destabilizing situation in Mali significantly increases the number of refugees fleeing the conflict zone and trying to reach Europe.
“As in the past, there is a risk that ISIS and/or al-Qaeda will misuse this situation to send terrorist operatives towards Europe in preparation for attacks,” he said. “Finally, the massive strengthening of ISIS and al-Qaeda forces in West Africa also increases the risk of radicalizing individuals in Europe and the U.S. as sympathizers of ISIS and al-Qaeda perceive the situation in West Africa as a success for their terror networks.
Andrew Lewis, President of the operational and intelligence services firm The Ulysses Group, says that without the UN presence, U.S. interests are hindered by a lack of monitoring and countering the reach of ISIS, as well as losing insight into Chinese activity in the region.
“Despite this, we allocate very little funding, personnel or assets to this AOR so it will get worse,” he said. “With respect to ISIS and similar groups, a concern is and has been disrupting their ability to get to the U.S. We have identified human smuggling operations and networks spanning from Yemen across the Sahel into Colombia and up through Latin America to the U.S. This goes back to at least 2015.”
Atallah says immediate action by the U.S. and its partners is needed to reinforce peacekeeping efforts, including exploring opportunities to deploy additional peacekeeping forces or collaborate with regional organizations to fill the security void left by the withdrawal.
“This will help alleviate the suffering and vulnerability of the local communities and refugees. And as conditions worsen, many refugees are compelled to seek a better life by attempting to migrate northward towards Libya. However, this journey exposes them to exploitation by human traffickers who prey on their vulnerability. The E.U. in particular is at risk of a rude awakening as this influx of desperate refugees opens up avenues for slave labor, sex trafficking, organ harvesting, and even ritual killings,” he added.
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