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EXPERT Q&A – In what many Cipher Brief Experts are calling one of the most significant events in the year-long war in Gaza, the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on Thursday is prompting questions about what comes next.
More than 100 hostages, kidnapped by Hamas in the brutal terrorist attack of October 7, 2023 remain captive and the line of potential successors to replace Sinwar isn’t promising when it comes to hopes of negotiating their release.
The Cipher Brief spoke with Norm Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI and an expert on the region, about how he sees Sinwar’s death impacting power dynamics in the region.
Our conversation has been lightly edited.
The Cipher Brief: How do you see the death of Yahya Sinwar impacting the Gaza conflict?
Roule: After recovering from the systemic failure of October 7, 2023, Israel’s security establishment has now destroyed Hamas and Hezbollah as strategic threats and has killed a generation of their most important and experienced leaders. Iran’s power projection in the region has been severely reduced.
In some ways, one is reminded of the U.S. intelligence and military achievements that utterly destroyed Saddam Hussein’s vaunted military and security institutions. The humanitarian impact on the Palestinian and Lebanese people has been devastating. But like post-invasion Iraq, Israel now faces the consequences of the collapse of proxy leadership that leaves thousands of armed fighters continuing the conflict amidst the rubble. Israel – and the international community – have yet to provide a vision for a post-Hamas Gaza, let alone a clear idea of how they will create safe areas where Gazans can begin to rebuild their lives. The coming days will tell whether the Gaza war may wind down or whether it is beginning a new phase of grinding violence.
The Cipher Brief: Is Sinwar’s death as consequential as some suggest? How do you see this playing out in coming days?
Roule: The architect of the October 2003 massacre and Hamas’ murderous reign of terror is dead. As with the deaths of al-Qa’ida’s Osama bin Laden or Lebanese Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and their senior lieutenants, the ideological DNA of Hamas has now been changed. Sinwar’s death removes an adamant and blood-thirsty opponent of compromise on the cease fire talks. Diplomats will certainly test whether hostage talks can restart. The prospect of Palestinian Authority governance of Gaza now seems a bit closer. Likewise, we seem to be approaching the point where we will see if it is possible to break the social hold of Hamas’ ideology much as the world did with al-Qa’ida. But the hard truth is that it is too early to tell.
In terms of the future of the Gaza conflict, much will depend on who takes Sinwar’s place in Hamas’ military architecture and that person’s stature among Palestinians. We will likely see fissures appear as hardline Hamas members compete with those willing to accept defeat as the price for survival. We can’t rule out that a new generation of Palestinian militants may rise in the ashes of Hamas, much as Da’ish appeared after the defeat of al-Qa’ida. In any case, my sense is that the violence in Gaza will continue for some time, although its intensity and geography may change. Intelligence organizations will be pressed hard for reliable collection on this evolution.
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We should have a better idea of the direction of the group within a week or so. It is likely still too early to say that this event will bring about a ceasefire, but diplomats will prepare to seize this opportunity if it happens. If the signs are positive, look for news of diplomats traveling in the region, evidence of a collapse of Hamas’ military opposition, a reduction of Hezbollah attacks on Israel, and proof of debate within Israel’s government on a ceasefire. The absence of these signs will likely indicate the Gaza conflict will continue on its current trajectory.
We should worry about reprisals against the remaining hostages. Israel’s intelligence and military will no doubt have redoubled their efforts to locate hostages given this potential threat. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already issued a statement offering that any hostage taker who ends armed resistance and releases hostages will be allowed to live and leave Gaza. It is impossible to predict whether this offer will be effective.
The Cipher Brief: Who is likely to take Sinwar’s place and will a successor be able to reassert control over Hamas?
Roule: Sinwar’s death opens both Hamas’ political and military wings to new leadership. Remember that Sinwar replaced Ismail Haniyeh as head of the political wing in August. Haniyeh’s deputy, Salah al-Arouri, was killed by Israel in January, removing him from the succession process. The Hamas Shura Council – or at least those outside of Gaza – will likely meet to discuss the group’s next leader.
Political wing successors could include Hamas founders Mousa Abu Marzouk and Khaled Meshaal or perhaps Khalil al-Hayya, the political bureau deputy. All of these actors have experience engaging foreign interlocutors, making them at least known commodities to Western diplomats seeking to revive hostage talks. But none have Sinwar’s iconic stature and ability to influence the Gaza and West Bank population.
Replacing Sinwar as Hamas’ military leader will be more difficult, but this may not matter. At his death, Sinwar’s ability to direct operations was modest. The survival of the Hamas military wing in Gaza will require an experienced militant with name recognition. Mohammed al-Sinwar might be a possibility.
The Cipher Brief: What do we know about him, other than he is the brother of Yahya Sinwar?
Roule: Quite a bit and all of it should concern us. In short, if Mohammed Sinwar becomes the accepted head of Hamas, a compromise that produces a ceasefire and release of hostages is extremely unlikely. About a dozen years younger than his brother Yahya, Mohammed shares his brother’s deep hatred for Israel and commitment to violence. He spent a brief time in Israeli and Palestinian prisons as a suspected terrorist, gravitating to the hardline Hamas military wing upon his release. As time passed and with the name recognition that came with being a brother to Yahya, Mohammed rose to senior levels of the Hamas military hierarchy. He led multiple terrorist and kidnapping operations against Israelis and Palestinians and even reportedly armed pro-ISIS extremists to attack Egypt in exchange for their help smuggling weapons from Egypt to Gaza. Israel reportedly unsuccessfully targeted him for elimination on several occasions. He played a significant role in ensuring his brother Yahya was included among those released from Israeli prisons in 2011. About a decade ago, he faked his death, gaining the nickname “The Living Dead.” Even within Gaza, his reputation is dark, with reports of his involvement in the torture of prisoners and child abuse. Mohammed is considered one of the architects of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. With the death of Hamas leader Mohammed Deif earlier this year and now Yahya Sinwar, he has become perhaps Hamas’ most senior military official. But this said, the ability of any Hamas official to exert broad control over the group’s thousands of militants is unlikely, given the intensity and success of the Israeli onslaught.
The Cipher Brief: What does this mean for Hezbollah?
Roule: Sinwar’s death is another defeat for Hezbollah. The Lebanese group finds itself locked into the seemingly endless devastation that comes with joining Hamas in a losing war against Israel. If new Hamas leadership accepts a ceasefire or acknowledges its defeat, Hezbollah will likely seek a ceasefire with Israel if only to survive and protect its position in Lebanese politics. If Sinwar’s successor continues to fight, Hezbollah will likely feel compelled to do so, at least in the near term.
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The Cipher Brief: What does the death of Sinwar mean for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government?
Roule: In the short term, Netanyahu and his hardline government have achieved a signal victory: the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership. The Prime Minister’s political survival looks strong in the near term. If this success produces a dynamic that frees hostages and the disarming of Gaza, Netanyahu will have achieved a historic success and overcome many of the political consequences of the Hamas attack of 2023. But if the hostages remain in Gaza and the war drags on, the glow of this success will quickly fade. Ideally, conditions in Gaza would improve to the point where Israel could feel safe to declare an end to the conflict, and an international security force would arrive in Gaza to assist a reformed Palestinian Authority begin the long road to recovery. Hezbollah would then have a face-saving opportunity to stand down to recover while retaining its power in Lebanon. Iran would likely support a cease-fire, if only because it would allow both Hamas and Hezbollah to survive. Unfortunately, this scenario would require a series of complementary decisions in Gaza, Doha, Jerusalem, Beirut, Tehran, and Washington. Arranging such a constellation will be challenging, to say the least, while the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts rage on and Washington passes through a difficult election period.
The Cipher Brief: How does this look from Tehran? What does this mean regarding the anticipated Israeli military attack on Iran in retaliation for Iran’s missile barrage?
Roule: Let me answer the second question first. The Sinwar death does nothing for Israel’s requirement to convince Iran that it faces unacceptable punishment for any future attack on Israel. The Israeli attack, therefore, remains highly likely and could happen at any time. It is likely to be robust and innovative and may play out over days with different tools in different arenas. We should have some humility in our ability to predict the consequences of this strike within Iran as well as Tehran’s likely response. Before the attack, Iran will continue to posture defiance and confidence to its population while using its foreign minister and other representatives to complicate the international posture toward an Israeli attack. It will do this through a combination of messages that Tehran is willing to end the current round of violence if Israel does so while simultaneously threatening to expand the conflict regionally if the attack is severe or involves other actors.
Regarding Sinwar’s death, Tehran likely saw this as inevitable. Nonetheless, one can imagine the fury and despair that Iran’s leadership and Revolutionary Guards must feel as they watch Israel eradicate their closest partners and dismantle decades of investment. Tehran will likely play the long game. The Quds Force has not gone away. Until it does so, Iran’s malign regional adventurism will remain a constant. Its hold in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen remains. Tehran probably expects that Hamas and Hezbollah will survive to be rebuilt, in part because neither the Lebanese nor Palestinian political systems are capable of replacing them in their respective societies.
Read Might Sinwar Killing Lead to peace in Gaza in The Cipher Brief
This brings us to the question of what the U.S. and the international community should be doing. Absent dramatic progress, no U.S. administration since 1945 has left the office with the Middle East consumed by such turbulence. In many ways, the Middle East is now a contested territory with the role of the U.S. undefined while at the same time, thousands of U.S. personnel face lethal threats from Iranian missiles and drones, and the Pentagon expends billions defending partners without achieving deterrence to our adversaries.
Despite the demands of China and Russia, the next administration must invest considerably more diplomatic and policy resources to restore stability in the Middle East and avoid a broader war. The issues that must be addressed will be complicated in the near term. What policy will compel Lebanese and Palestinian politicians to adopt the reforms to win local and international support? How do we empower Lebanese and Palestinian security forces to take on the thousands of gunmen and militant splinter groups roaming their respective countries? Is it possible for the West and regional states to offer financial inducements to convince militants to transfer their loyalty from terrorist groups to traditional governments? Israel will understandably want to ensure its security, but its population -like those of the Palestinian territories – is so traumatized that it is difficult to see how representatives from either side can be expected to make progress toward peace.
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