To optimists, it may appear that Iran is headed in a new direction. During the past year, Iranian leaders reached a landmark nuclear deal with the P5+1 and moderates emerged victorious in the country’s most recent elections in February. Yet the international community remains wary of Iran’s provocative behavior and skeptical of Iranian policies actually changing for the benefit of global security.
Iran’s lukewarm reception on the international stage can be attributed to its two-pronged strategy spearheaded by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
On the one hand, the Iranian government appears to have thus far stuck to its side of the nuclear agreement. “I am pleased to report that…Iran implemented all of its key nuclear-related commitments necessary to reach Implementation Day,” testified Ambassador Stephen Mull, the U.S. State Department’s Lead Coordinator for Iran Nuclear Implementation, before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs in February. Implementation Day, which occurred on January 16, was the day that the International Atomic Energy Agency determined that Iran had curbed enough of its nuclear program to begin receiving sanctions relief.
Further, the Iranian government seems to have peacefully accepted the results of the February elections, which saw moderates achieve their greatest number of representatives in the Iranian parliament since 2004. This contrasts Iran’s 2009 post-election environment in which the Iranian government cracked down on protestors challenging the reelection of former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was contentiously named victorious over his moderate challenger Mir-Hossein Moussavi.
However, on the flip side, the Iranian government continues to defy international bans on its ballistic missile program, approved a chant of “Death to America” as an official political slogan last fall, regularly expresses its desire to wipe Israel off the map, continues to back President Bashar al-Assad in Syria despite his numerous war crimes, and remains the premier supporter of terrorist groups worldwide.
Iran’s latest act of aggression occurred earlier this month when it test-fired two ballistic missiles each marked with a sentence in Hebrew reading “Israel must be wiped off the Earth.” Yesterday, Ayatollah Khamenei defended his county’s missile ambitions, declaring “Those who say the future is in negotiations, not in missiles, are either ignorant or traitors.”
So the burning question remains: where is Iran headed?
Dr. Shaul Bakhash, a Cipher Brief expert and professor at George Mason University, cautions that while Iran’s participation in the nuclear agreement and the results of its recent election may be achievements to note, it does not appear that these events will signal a shift in Iranian foreign policy or domestic politics moving forward.
“Irrespective of the composition of the new parliament, the instruments of power remain in the hands of the conservatives and hardliners; this suggests that no significant expansion of political freedoms at home or change in Iran’s foreign policy on vital issues abroad should be expected,” writes Bakhash.
One factor worth watching is the deteriorating health of hardliners such as Ayatollah Khamenei, who is now 78, as well as the rapid aging of several other senior Iranian clerics who have held leadership posts since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Khamenei is the country’s second Supreme Leader since the Iranian Revolution, and his successor will be selected by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member committee that received an influx of moderates following Iran’s February elections.
According to Ambassador John Limbert, a Cipher Brief expert and former member of the U.S. embassy staff that was held hostage in Tehran, the Islamic Republic is currently at a crossroads and the next few years represent a critical juncture for the country’s future. “Iran remains torn among competing factions, ambitious individuals, and different visions of politics and society,” explains Limbert. “In the next five-to-ten years, Iran will have to achieve a balance between its often overblown rhetoric and the realities of its situation,” he says.
In an attempt to turn over a new leaf, U.S. President Barack Obama has sought to engage with Iran throughout his time in office. “As President, I decided that a strong, confident America could advance our national security by engaging directly with the Iranian government,” stated President Obama a day after Implementation Day. But while such overtures may bear some fruit, Iran’s future ultimately lies in the hands of the next generation of Iranian leaders. What has yet to be determined is whether they will pursue policies that help stabilize the international community or uphold – and expand on – the status quo.
Bennett Seftel is the Deputy Director of Editorial at The Cipher Brief.
