A missile fired by Yemen’s Iranian-supported Houthi rebels and targeting the Saudi capital Riyadh for the second time in seven weeks suggests such an attack won’t be a one-off. While the Saudis again say they were able to intercept the rocket, this might mark the beginnings of a pattern that thrusts the Kingdom into the center of a proxy war between Washington and Tehran.
The technological makeup of the Burkan H2 missile, the same kind used in the Nov. 4 attack, leaves little doubt about its Iranian origin, as Yemen doesn’t have such manufacturing capabilities. And despite decades of experience in guerrilla warfare, it is unlikely that the Houthis have been able to acquire the necessary military training and expertise to use such strategic weapons on their own. Instead, they most likely acquired their know-how from Iranian military advisors on the ground in Yemen.
The Dec. 19 missile allegedly was aimed at a residential area, according to the New York Times, which cited the state-run Saudi Press Agency. The Houthis said they were targeting the Yamama Palace in Riyadh, where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was due to present the Kingdom’s annual budget, the Times reported.
The timing of the attack, too, hardly seems coincidental. It marked 1,000 days since the Saudi-led coalition intervened in March 2015 to reinstate the internationally recognized government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who had been deposed by the Houthis in September 2014 after they captured the capital of Sanaa.
Perhaps more importantly, the attack came a day after President Trump presented the U.S. National Security Strategy, in which he identified Tehran as Washington’s primary strategic adversary within the broader Middle East. The strategy was published amid uncertainty over whether the Trump-administration will walk away from the 2015 nuclear deal aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), came in for further criticism in the new document. And just last week, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, cited remnants of the Nov. 4 missile and other parts as evidence of Iran’s use of proxy forces in the region, including the Houthis.
While the merits of the JCPOA continue to be debated in Washington, it was the ability to obtain sanctions relief coupled with the right to acquire aircraft from Boeing and Airbus that made the agreement worthwhile for Iran.
Should Washington scrap the JCPOA, or short of that, refuse to grant Iran the necessary licenses to obtain Boeing airliners Tehran might seek to retaliate. With the war in Syria winding down, Yemen could become the theater where Tehran chooses to escalate against Washington by targeting Saudi Arabia. Given that Russia remains a key player in Syria, and that President Vladimir Putin has forged pragmatic relationships with Turkey, Israel, the Arab states and Iran, it seems unlikely that Tehran would challenge the Russian-supported status-quo in Syria, especially now that the tide has turned in favor of the regime of Bashar Al-Assad.
On the same day as the Houthis’ latest missile strike against Riyadh, Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Swiss ambassador to Tehran to protest Haley’s recent remarks about Iran and the Houthis. The Iranian condemnation to the Swiss ambassador, which represents the U.S. in Iran in the absence of direct diplomatic relations since the Iranian revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis, underscores that formal lines of communications between Washington and Tehran remain in place and that Switzerland potentially could help carry messages between the two sides at a time of escalating tensions.
Switzerland also remains a trusted partner of Saudi Arabia, which might explain why Swiss officials recently announced that they had reached an agreement with Riyadh and Tehran to represent Iranian consular interests in Saudi Arabia and Saudi consular interests in Iran.
Within the triangular relationship between Washington, Riyadh and Tehran, Bern could become the key interlocuter to prevent miscalculations with potentially devastating consequences.
Oman also could play a role to help establish an intra-Yemeni reconciliation process: Amid deepening divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council over the Qatar crisis, in a recent summit meeting, the GCC nevertheless remained united in its support for the U.N. peace process for Yemen. The recent killing of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, however, has complicated the already difficult diplomatic process.
Oman, through its historic relationship with all of Yemen’s competing political actors coupled with its neutrality in the present war between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis, could help revitalize Yemen reconciliation efforts.
While Swiss and Omani officials would play different roles, their collective experiences pursuing peaceful diplomatic solutions in the region may be exactly what the Gulf needs at this volatile time.
Sigurd Neubauer is a senior analyst at SOS International, a U.S. defense consultancy, and a Non-Resident Fellow at Gulf International Forum. Follow him on Twitter @SigiMideast.
