U.S. – Angola relations have never been easy. Even after the end of the Cold War mindset, the Angolan regime’s memory of U.S. support to the armed opposition, and some lack of interest from Washington, ended up frustrating more recent attempts to establish a “strategic partnership dialogue” under then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Despite this heavy past, the last couple of years were able to show, through much work by the U.S. Ambassador Helen La Lime, a softening of speech from Luanda, and more concrete, although discreet, accomplishments.
Still, the expectation that Wednesday’s presidential elections, which Defense Minister João Lourenço won, signify the end of an era – one of absolute control over politics and society in Angola, after 38 years of President José Eduardo dos Santos – is only accurate to an extent. President dos Santos did carefully plan his stepdown, but the political and electoral systems remain completely controlled by the regime, and it therefore comes as no surprise that his successor is also a fellow MPLA party member. The new President does not signal a new regime.
The new President should not, however, be underestimated. An experienced politician and general, he bridges most of the factions within the MPLA, bringing his own personal credibility to the population. In a way, the “little known safe choice” for a successor has turned out to have his own support base, building on public dissatisfaction – without endangering the status quo. His career in the Armed Forces and the security sector is politically recognized by his peers and an older generation, who esteem Lourenço. He will probably still have to protect, at least publicly, dos Santos’s interests, but it’s unlikely that the new President, with the support of the Armed Forces, will endure “impositions” by his predecessor for long.
Adding to this, João Lourenço is discreet, understands national priorities, and when facing one of the nation’s biggest challenges – the country’s economy – has one key asset: his wife’s knowledge and deep understanding of development policies and financing. Let’s not forget that Mrs. Lourenço was Alternate Director at the executive board of the World Bank.
Opposition parties may change places or increase their representation in Parliament, but the largest challenge the President will face is not civil war; it’s a financial crisis and “development war.” The younger generation in Luanda believes it is time to call the “liberation debt” – money provided to Angolan liberation veterans – paid. It is now felt on the streets that there will be no quick solutions for the lack of foreign currency or internal production, but likewise there will be no tolerance for postponed signs of development. Employment and rural infrastructure, even if slowly, will have to be seen. Politics no longer drives the citizen, but policy results do.
In this way, the U.S. now has a once in a decade, if not once in a generation, opportunity to advance both its values and its interests in the region. A new world in Luanda is opening up for the U.S., but relations are built by dialogue, mutual understanding, and support – not necessarily direct development aid. In this case, development investment may be the best option. Oil prices are not recovering soon, and therefore neither is the Angolan economy nor unemployment rates.
In past years, mismanagement and corruption, led the economy in Luanda. Money from the oil industry was too much, too fast. In the very near future, the new President will have to ask the International Monetary Fund for help, and the currency (kwanza) will have to devalue by at least 40 percent.
But big challenges prompt political will for better solutions. The agriculture and agro industrial sectors have extraordinary potential in Angola. The U.S. State and Treasury Departments might actually be able to advance anticorruption practices, and international financial standards, by linking these objectives to the safety of American investment in much needed labor-intensive sectors, like agriculture and industry.
In a way, the best help the U.S. can offer the new President, the population, and America’s own interests is to make sound investments, to develop the market in Angola, and to make a buck while doing it.
