OPINION — Describing the conditions that set the stage for history’s largest, most costly war, Winston Churchill wrote in The Gathering Storm, “The malice of the wicked was reinforced by the weakness of the virtuous.” We are confronted with similar circumstances today.
The leaders of a malicious Axis of Autocracies challenging the U.S. and its allies on multiple fronts have been encouraged in their aggression by a string of American failures. Those national security calamities have, at once, fueled and been fueled, by a growing impression of American weakness and irresolution that has demonstrably eroded our ability to dissuade and deter our adversaries from their depredations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine in 2022, was certainly encouraged by the disgraceful U.S. flight from Afghanistan. Likewise, Iran’s decision to unleash its Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi proxies – and ultimately its own drones and missiles – in an assault on Israel and in the case of the Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea; likely would not have happened, or would not have taken the form they did, absent Afghanistan and Ukraine.
Now, the most important and dangerous member of the big three in that Axis – China – is exploiting the international chaos engendered by its allies to ramp up pressure on Taiwan and on the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Whether Xi Jinping will ultimately opt for a direct invasion of (or begin with a sea and air quarantine around) Taiwan remains unclear. I think he will settle on the latter, at least as a first step. What is clear, is that for the Chinese leader, an attempt to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland is a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’.
Our adversaries have been encouraged by events that have caused many in the U.S. to question their country’s values and institutions.
Having long recognized Americans’ faith in their founding democratic principles as the true strength of our country, U.S. adversaries have surely looked on with pleasure at the traction gained by disinformation themes such as the discredited Russia collusion narrative, as well as the societal chaos and distrust engendered by the release of a virulent virus from a Wuhan lab.
The hard men in Beijing, Moscow and Tehran are doubtless bemused by American pursuit of the illusory goal of defending a rules-based order that is itself, an illusion. At the same time, they know – and fear – the possibility that a renaissance of American spirit and national power akin to that which occurred when President Ronald Reagan took office in 1981, might repeat itself. Consequently, the chief variable for all of them in determining their next moves, is unquestionably who wins the White House in November.
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Likewise, our allies must be looking on with increased alarm at the manifest uncertainty and irresolution they have seen coming out of Washington. Beyond the impressions formed by their recent interactions with our leadership, and U.S. professions of continuing commitment to its allies and friends notwithstanding, there is doubtless great unease as to what course Washington will take in future.
This is undoubtedly the case in Tel Aviv, Kiev and Taipei, all of which must harbor deep concerns given their own circumstances – that they will re-learn the lesson espoused by Henry Kissinger in a 1968 phone call with William F. Buckley – that should America fail to support South Vietnam, “the word will go out to the nations of the world that it may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
The period of greatest potential danger for the U.S. is the period between the election and the inauguration.
If the current administration; who our adversaries clearly assess as increasingly enfeebled and governing a deeply divided country; is returned to office, adversaries probably expect they will continue to see more of the same in the future. In such a circumstance, with the U.S. pursuing a policy of managing, or failing to manage, international crises rather than moving decisively in responding to them, our adversaries will likely be willing to continue along their present paths in Ukraine and Taiwan in the near term; keeping in mind that Xi and Putin – both in their 70’s – are driven by actuarial calendars in their commitment to ‘resolve’ each of these issues.
Tragically, with respect to Ukraine, it appears the Russians are slowly winning the war on the ground in a typically for them – grinding fashion; with firepower and flesh. Putin doesn’t want to fight NATO directly. Such an eventuality is not in keeping with his stated war goals. But more importantly, Putin also knows that he likely cannot win a conventional conflict with NATO.
Consequently, the Russians have been careful not to strike provocative targets (i.e. trains from Poland into Ukraine) for fear of hitting westerners, while at the same time, warning of a willingness to use nuclear weapons in extremis.
Instead, much like the Germans before U.S. entry into WWI, Moscow has sought to counter Western backing for Ukraine through propaganda and sabotage. This could change if the war keeps escalating. For now, however, Putin likely believes that what Lincoln called the “awful arithmetic” of war means that he will eventually be able to dictate or negotiate a settlement that he can call a ‘victory’.
The situation for our Israeli allies is more complicated. Israel cannot allow the status quo to evolve into stasis as it is currently unable to ensure the defense of its own territory and people. And a country that cannot defend its own borders and citizens, soon ceases to be a country.
In Gaza, the Israelis must eliminate Hamas as a military and political force. Likewise, with some 80,000 of its citizens displaced in the north by Hezbollah rocket attacks, Israel must move to punish Hezbollah militarily and push its forces back from Israel’s border with Lebanon. And sooner or later, Israel will have to deal with Iran directly, particularly with its nuclear weapons manufacturing capabilities.
How quickly they can finish with Hamas and when they move on to Hezbollah will be dictated not only by the military factors at play, but that decision will also be greatly influenced by the anticipated and actual outcome of our Presidential election.
Tel Aviv has – mostly quietly – evidenced irritation, and sometimes anger, at the equivocal support it has received from Washington since it experienced its own 9/11, and almost certainly would welcome the possibility of unequivocal backing from a new Administration.
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Should former President Trump return to the White House, it could present an opportunity for the U.S. to reverse current trends and restore our capacity and will to deter the malicious acts of our adversaries. We cannot, of course, know how they would react to his return to power. But we do know what they did not do during his previous term.
The fact that Putin did not seize Ukrainian territory, and that Iran was more constrained in its aggression against our allies in the middle east during that time, suggests that they will be wary of him because of his unpredictably and would be uncertain how he might respond to their actions.
This is a force multiplier that can help in deterring Tehran and moving towards an end to the war in Ukraine. One cannot, for instance, envision a situation in which the man who took out Iran’s IRGC Chief Qassem Soleimani, would long tolerate the Houthis being allowed to continue attacking commercial shipping that’s putting U.S. Navy ships and sailors at risk for months on end – without bombing them forward to the Stone Age.
Likewise, it is hard to envision achieving even a ceasefire in Ukraine without the U.S. and its Western allies entering into security arrangements that ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while by extension, rejecting recognition of Russian control over seized Ukrainian territory.
That being said, the situation could be particularly fraught with respect to Taiwan should the former President win. Xi, knowing he will take a harder line against China on a full range of issues, may be tempted to act against the island in the period between election and inauguration. Signaling from an incoming Administration regarding the potential negative consequences of any such action by Beijing would be crucial.
Whatever the outcome of our November election, however, we must commit ourselves to restoring and reasserting American strength, unity and resolve, lest the wicked of the world continue to interpret our failure to do so as weakness and continue to act maliciously.
Should we fail to do so, we should not – to paraphrase Churchill – “Suppose that” the national security calamities we have seen in recent years are “…the end. This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.”
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