With no firm commitment to a two-state solution, U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled a potential shift in U.S. policy in the Arab-Israeli conflict. It was the first meeting between the two leaders since Trump took office.
"I'm looking at two states and one state,” said Trump. "I can live with either one." Netanyahu, meanwhile, said he wanted to focus on "substance" and not "labels."
There have been no substantive negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis since 2008. But peace talks between the two sides have largely been based around a two-state solution, which would create a Palestinian state that would coexist side-by-side with Israel.
Haim Malka, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, suggests there are few other options for a lasting peace. “It took decades for the idea of a two-state solution to be accepted by a majority of Israelis and Palestinians,” he says. “It is difficult to see how denying Palestinian aspirations for statehood in a way that preserves Israel’s unique identity can lead to an agreement which produces stability and security for either side.”
But Malka says, the comments gave the Israeli leader “something he can sell back home.”
“By dismissing the idea of a two state solution President Trump handed Netanyahu a major gift that the prime minister will use against his unruly right wing coalition,” he says.
Trump did, however, also ask the Israeli prime minister to “hold back on [building] settlements a little bit.” Israel has approved thousands of new homes in the West Bank and East Jerusalem since the beginning of the year.
Before taking office Trump showed no clear objection to settlement activity. But earlier this month, the Administration signaled a shift in tone when White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer issued a statement on Israeli settlements, saying they "may not be helpful" in achieving peace between Israelis and Palestinians. But unlike previous U.S. positions, he did not see current settlement activity as “an impediment to peace.”
But on Wednesday, Netanyahu stood his ground on his other long-standing demands for peace. “The Palestinians must recognize the Jewish state.” he declared. “Israel must retain the overriding security control over the entire area west of the Jordan River,” he added saying otherwise “we’ll get another radical Islamic terrorist state.”
Asked about his campaign pledge to move the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv, Trump replied “I'd love to see that happen."
“We're looking at it very, very strongly. We're looking at it with a great care, a great care, believe me. And we'll see what happens," he added.
The status of Jerusalem and whether it will be split between Israeli and Palestinian authorities is one of the core issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A move would signify official U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, threatening prospects of a two-state solution.
“Let’s be clear, if the embassy is moved to Jerusalem, you can probably hang a ‘closed-for-the-season’ sign on the peace process for a while,” said Aaron David Miller, Vice President at the Wilson Center who has advised Republican and Democratic administrations on Arab-Israeli negotiations, during an interview with The Cipher Brief last month.
A move could also inflame Arab-Israeli tensions across the region. Jordan and Egypt, the only two Arab countries with peace treaties with Israel, were quick to warn against the move.
On a visit to Washington this month, a statement from King Abdullah II of Jordan “stressed the need to consider the ramifications of such a decision and the anger it could cause among Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims." It added that a move would not only risk a two-state solution, but “it might end up being used as a rallying cry by terrorists.”
After his inauguration, Spicer tempered expectations saying the administration was “at the very early stages of that decision-making process” of an embassy move.
The meeting between Netanyahu and Trump could be the much-desired reset for both countries. U.S.-Israeli relations were particularly strained in the final months of the Obama Administration.
The two countries reached a landmark deal last fall, where the U.S. will provide $38 billion in defense aid to Israel over ten years. But the Obama Administration failed to veto a December UN Security Council Resolution that condemned the construction of Israeli settlements, which was met with fury by the Israeli leadership. In December, former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry gave a 72-minute speech harshly critical of Israeli settlement activity, fueling further divide between the U.S. and Israeli governments.
But with his arrival in Washington, Netanyahu undoubtedly wants to turn a new leaf, and so far, the Trump Administration appears to be receptive.
Leone Lakhani (@LeoneLakhani) is executive producer and reporter at The Cipher Brief, and Bennett Seftel (@BennettSeftel) is deputy director of editorial.
