From its base in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) has morphed into a worldwide jihadi network. Casting a vast net is part of ISIS’ grand strategy, which focuses on using terrorist tactics to establish an Islamic Caliphate across Muslim lands and attacking Western targets as part of its apocalyptic vision.
“The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has become the preeminent terrorist threat because of its self-described caliphate in Syria and Iraq, its branches and emerging branches in other countries, and its increasing ability to direct and inspire attacks against a wide range of targets around the world,” wrote Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in his 2016 Worldwide Threat Assessment released in February.
On Monday, this sentiment was echoed by Lisa Monaco, a top counterterrorism official at the White House, who stated that that terrorist threat today “is broader, more diffuse—and less predictable—than at any time since 9/11.”
When offering their assessments of the campaign to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIS, some U.S. officials, including Brett McGurk, the Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, are quick to point out that “ISIL has not had a significant battlefield victory {in Syria and Iraq} since May 2015 and over a dozen major cities have been liberated from ISIL since the start of the campaign.” Such statements indicate that the U.S.-led coalition is making headway in its effort to eradicate ISIS.
Despite territorial losses to its self-declared caliphate, ISIS remains committed to spreading its ideological message, harsh rule, and terrorist objectives to new outposts. “ISIL has reacted to these losses in Iraq and Syria by lashing out overseas – conducting the kinds of terrorist attacks that Beirut and Paris witnessed in November and Istanbul and Jakarta witnessed in January,” explained McGurk in his testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee last month. “The Islamic State has indeed been diverting resources for the larger cause,” writes The Cipher Brief expert Aki Peritz.
And this strategy appears to be working. While much attention has been directed at battling ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the terrorist group has also been able to solidify key strongholds in Libya and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. During the past few months, ISIS has sent several of its leaders to Libya in an effort to avoid the U.S.-led aerial bombardment, and ISIS’s offshoot in the Sinai continues to conduct smaller scale attacks.
ISIS’s metastasis does not stop there. The group has worked to cultivate branches in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Somalia, West Africa, and the Caucasus. Earlier this month, estimates placed the number of ISIS global affiliates at 43, up from the 34 reported last December. Since ISIS’s ascension to the spotlight of the global jihadi scene two years ago, several terrorist organizations, most notably Boko Haram in Nigeria and certain elements of al-Shabab in Somalia, have switched their allegiance from al Qaeda’s emir, Ayman al Zawahiri, to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.
Furthermore, ISIS continues to grab headlines for attacks outside of Syria and Iraq. Earlier this week, ISIS militants launched raids along the Tunisian-Libyan border, killing several members of Tunisia’s security forces. Last week, Jordanian authorities foiled an ISIS terrorist plot near the Jordanian-Syrian border, killing seven militants. On Monday, Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner and senior counterterrorism coordinator in the UK, Mark Rowley, warned that the UK authorities should be on alert for an “enormous and spectacular” terrorist atrocity planned by ISIS.
Thus, “as ISIS faces an uncertain future, regular setbacks in Syria/Iraq motivate them to expand into other areas,” writes The Cipher Brief expert Dr. Michael W.S. Ryan. Ousting ISIS from its headquarters is critical for curbing the group’s momentum and exposing its weaknesses, but an effective counter-ISIS strategy must also take into account ISIS affiliates outside of Syria and Iraq as they continue to threaten regional and global security.
Bennett Seftel is the Deputy Director of Editorial at The Cipher Brief.
