
The Possibilities – and Perils – of a Trump-Putin Meeting
EXPERT INTERVIEWS – President Donald Trump is defied diplomatic norms with a pair of conversations this week over bringing an end to Russia’s war in […] More
EXPERT INTERVIEW — Russian President Vladimir Putin received his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, in Moscow on Friday to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty.” Russian and Iranian officials say the 20-year treaty aims to bring Moscow and Tehran closer in all areas – from trade and military cooperation to education and culture. Putin called the agreement a “real breakthrough, creating conditions for the stable and sustainable development of Russia, Iran and the entire region.”
Russia and Iran have supported each other for decades — Moscow has provided support to Iran’s nuclear program, and Tehran has sent missiles and drone weapons support to Russia for its war against Ukraine. The two have also strengthened ties with China and North Korea, fellow members of what some call the “Axis of Authoritarians” — geopolitical bedfellows drawn together by their animosity towards the U.S. and other western powers, and by a desire to evade sanctions imposed by the West against their regimes.
The Cipher Brief turned to former senior CIA Intelligence Officer Paul Kolbe to assess the new Russia-Iran treaty and what it means for the Russia-Iran relationship. Kolbe said this deal was largely a case of “form over substance,” and noted the timing of the announcement – coming on the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration and soon after the fall of Russia and Iran’s ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria. “The fact of that loss and the repercussions of that are driving the countries more closely together,” Kolbe said. “The timing of the agreement serves to bolster each and serves as a bit of a salve for that wound.” The Trump timing, Kolbe said, was another element in this “calculated” attempt by Russia and Iran to project a position of strength and power.
Kolbe spoke with Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity. You can also watch the full discussion on our YouTube channel.
Nagorski: Obviously, the Russia-Iran alliance itself is not a new thing. What’s important in your mind in terms of this latest iteration in the partnership, this so-called “comprehensive treaty” that they’ve signed with great fanfare in Moscow?
Kolbe: This relationship based on mutual interests goes back decades. Russia has been helping Iran both militarily and with its civilian nuclear program, providing fuel and providing expertise. But this so-called alliance is driven by the primary mutual interest of animosity, hatred of the United States and a mutual desire to do everything that they can to weaken the U.S. strategically, politically, economically and militarily.
This latest iteration has been portrayed by both sides as an inflection point, a great leap forward in their relationships, but it really is all about form over substance. As you look into the text of what is actually agreed, it’s underwhelming in its detail. I’ll use one example. It’s been portrayed as a mutual defense treaty. And while security issues are addressed, their mutual defense obligations are limited to agreeing not to help the other sides’ adversary in a conflict. So, if Russia were to get into a conflict with NATO or the United States or with Kazakhstan or with whomever, Iran simply then agrees not to help the other party fighting Russia. That’s not particularly a strong defense alliance.
Nagorski: Others were also pointing out it doesn’t go nearly as far as what the Russians and North Koreans have recently agreed to.
Kolbe: Right. And while Iran has been sending Shahed drones to Russia to use against Ukraine for quite some time – hundreds of them – and ballistic missiles, they’re not sending IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) troops and soldiers to fight on the front lines in Kursk and Donetsk.
Nagorski: Do think they’ve been asked?
Kolbe: I don’t know. I think [the Russians] probably don’t want to ask a question that they know the answer is going to be “No” to. Iran’s got enough troubles on its own plate domestically and in its region, particularly with Syria, that they’re probably not going to further weaken their position by sending a bunch of cannon fodder to fight against Ukrainians.
Nagorski: I assume part of this also is a result of the fact that these are two heavily sanctioned countries. How are they helping one another get around the various troubles they have in that regard?
Kolbe: Russia was able to look at Iran’s playbook for circumventing, avoiding, undermining U.S. sanctions over the last years and was able to apply that with regards to Ukraine when the U.S. imposed sanctions there. I’d also note that China is learning from that same playbook and taking the lessons learned from both Iranian and Russian experiences. And all three of them are actively participating in very practical measures for circumventing the sanctions; the so-called “shadow fleets” of tankers that are roaming the globe, the hundreds of decrepit oil tankers, floating environmental disasters waiting to take place, are being used by Russia, China and Iran to move hydrocarbons between their various economies and countries.
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Nagorski: You’ve mentioned that Russia gets the benefit of the [Iranian] drones and the missiles for their war against Ukraine, but not manpower. What else is an actual benefit that the Iranians provide the Russians?
Kolbe: Let’s take a step back and look at the region right now. Syria, Bashar Assad just fell; [it is] a major diplomatic, political, military setback for Russia. Syria was Russia’s primary partner in the Middle East. The loss of that decade-long civil war is a severe blow both to Russia and to Iran, more so to Iran because of its interests with Hezbollah and its use against Israel. But the fact of that loss and the repercussions of that are driving the countries more closely together. The timing of the agreement serves to bolster each and serves as a bit of a salve for that wound.
I don’t think it has much practical effect in terms of enhancing the stability of an Iranian regime. But it does help portray to the world that Russia is still a player in the Middle East, that they’re still active, that they’ve got a set of relationships that are opposed to the United States. It gives them greater opportunities on either side to try to circumvent sanctions and try to intertwine their economies in ways that aren’t touched by U.S. and European sanctions. And it can serve as a basis for another thread in the blanket that knits together Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
Nagorski: Is there also a benefit to Russia in terms of reaching some of the ports in Iran?
Kolbe: Anything that was going to be taking place in that regard was already happening on a sort of an ad hoc basis. This treaty just serves more of a political purpose and more of a foot stamp on the eve of President Trump’s inauguration and following their collapse in Syria. Each of them are trying to solidify their respective positions a bit.
Nagorski: I think it was the Kremlin spokesman who said, the timing had absolutely nothing to do with Donald Trump’s inauguration. What’s your take on that? Not a coincidence?
Kolbe: No, of course it’s not a coincidence. The timing was very carefully calculated. And if they thought it was not going to send the appropriate message, they would have either done it sooner or delayed it till later.
Nagorski: The Russians have relations with Saudi Arabia, with the UAE. Is that part of the equation here in terms of the Russians not agreeing to a mutual defense arrangement with Iran, because they’ve got to worry about their other friends in that part of the world?
Kolbe: I think that the weakness of the language of a so-called alliance treaty in which the word “ally” or “alliance”, as far as I can tell, is not mentioned, does indicate that there’s a balancing act going on. Russia stands to gain a lot more from relationships with the Gulf [states] and already does so in terms of its financial issues. So of course, they’re trying to balance that.
Nagorski: Does [Russia and Iran’s] relative weakness help the United States at this moment? How should the new administration be dealing with these countries?
Kolbe: I think with each of them, the most important piece is to use every tool at our disposal to modify and limit their egregious behavior. Iran, with its activities through its proxies in Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, who have all been sowing instability and violence throughout the Middle East for years and decades — that needs to be addressed much more forcefully, certainly on the economic sphere. And the same thing with Russia. While indeed there were lots of sanctions put in place early on in the war and throughout, it’s important to strengthen those and particularly to target the hydrocarbons for both producers, both Iran and for Russia. That’s the real pain point for them.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
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