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As we watched every headline regarding the coronavirus seem to hit new highs this week, we focused on the military’s likely role in the short and long-term as states plea for logistical support and hospital beds to deal with an overwhelming number of Americans needing medical attention in New York and Washington state.
What follows is a portion of this week’s briefing with Cipher Brief Expert Lt. General Guy Swan III (Ret.) General Swan currently serves as Vice President of the Association of the United States Army and is the former Commanding General of US Army North and Director of Operations for US Northern Command.
The Cipher Brief: As a former military officer, how do you look at the spread and the containment of COVID-19 differently than the rest of us do?
General Swan: That's a good question. As a career military officer, aside from the tragic crisis we're facing at the individual level, the healthcare side of this, the public health issues, this is also a period of opportunity for our adversaries to take advantage of this pandemic and threaten our national security. A lot of people in the defense department and in the Intelligence Community are watching this period very closely because just like after 9/11, or during hurricane Katrina, when the general public is focused on the day-to-day emergency, there are others who are looking for gaps and seams that they can take advantage of. You're already seeing some of that with attempts in the cyber world to interdict some of our systems, so there are concerns about that. And terrorism is always a potential threat for us in these situations while we are so focused on taking care of one another.
The Cipher Brief: Let's talk about New York. The Mayor has already called for military assistance in setting up more hospital beds as that state, and more specifically New York City, prepares to deal with even larger numbers of coronavirus patients. This is one of the ways that the military is trained to support civilian authorities during times of crisis. What are some of the other ways the military is ready to help?
General Swan: There have been several measures taken by the military, and by the Department of Defense. One is to deploy the hospital ship Comfort to New York Harbor to help out with the response there. The Army Corps of Engineers is also now helping the City of New York and the mayor, as you mentioned, with developing additional bed space. In fact, in the Javits Convention Center in Manhattan they're already working to add an additional 1,000 beds in that facility. That will take pressure off the existing hospital system in New York for primarily for ambulatory or non-Coronavirus patients that could be handled in a secure space and then the facilities that are in place can deal with those affected by the virus.
The Cipher Brief: Members of the military are also uniquely vulnerable to this threat. States can't find enough supplies to keep healthcare workers safe. How does the military protect its ability to assist and not allow this virus to spread through its ranks as it's following its mission orders?
General Swan: That's a great question and that is a major concern right now. The number one priority in the army and across the entire military, is caring for our service members and their families, that is job one. That is closely followed by being able to continue our national defense mission. Those two things work hand in hand. Obviously, you can't have a functioning ready military with a lot of people affected by this. So, commanders around the world are taking steps in conjunction with the CDC's guidance to make sure that their service members, their soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines are as safe as they can be under these circumstances. It's very, very difficult because as you well know, these units train in close quarters, they spend a lot of time with one another. The potential for spread is there, so this is very high priority right now for commanders around the world as you would expect.
The Cipher Brief: The secretary of defense recently implemented travel restrictions for off-base travel and the military is keeping its uniform personnel either on or near military bases. How unusual is this?
General Swan: This is very unusual. My own son is caught up in some of those travel restrictions. He's at Fort Stewart and was getting ready to move to another assignment that's been put on hold at least through the middle of May. He's also restricted to the local area around Fort Stewart, so we can't get him home for leave. But most importantly, is overseas travel. Both inbound and outbound service members are precluded from traveling right now. This is highly unusual as you would expect, but necessary under the circumstances. Another area that's been affected is affecting new recruits and new people coming into the military. That has been slowed and stabilized so people are basically staying in place for the next several weeks.
The Cipher Brief: When you look at military or intelligence failures over the years, and the word failures can be a bit harsh, but when the US has failed to achieve a desired level of safety or security, it is true that the after action reports reflect a failure of imagination of one kind or another. What are some of the lessons learned as you're sitting back and watching the almost unbelievable events develop day after day.
General Swan: You're exactly right. This is about imagination and creativity, things that aren’t always associated with the armed forces. But that's exactly what we need now in our schools, in our war colleges, we need to be challenging the status quo. Even in this modernization effort that's underway in the US army and the other military services.
There is a recognition that we can't go back to the way it was. We need to look forward. So, you're seeing more realization that warfare is going to be, as we say, multi-domain. It's now going to transcend just land and air and sea. It's going to include space and cyber and whichever nation can harness all those domains and operate in all of them simultaneously and interdependently is going to have a great advantage over its adversaries. I think that's where we need to be and a lot of that is going on right now. I think some would say we can't go back as we've done frequently in our history, to refight the last war. We did lose some skills in certain areas while we were focused on counterinsurgency. But we can't go back to the old ways of doing business. We now need to leap ahead and look at this new world that we're facing.
The Cipher Brief: As we close, what's concerning you the most right now? Give us some parting thoughts.
General Swan: I've spent a lot of time in the Homeland defense and Homeland security world. Both in uniform and after. So, I'm familiar with the processes in place that are being used now to rally the whole of government, whole of nation effort here. One area that I would just like to clarify is when we hear these calls to activate the military, or mobilize the military, that is a broad term. I want to reassure folks that the military is already definitely engaged. Right now, it’s primarily the national guard, at the state level. The national guard is the best military tool right now and the three States; California, Washington, and New York, three of the hardest hit states right now, have full access to their national guard organizations. So, I assure you that the military is already activated and involved and it has capacity, not excessive capacity, but it does have capacity to help in this crisis.
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