TAIPEI, TAIWAN —Taiwan’s annual military exercise launching this week, will be its largest ever, mobilizing more than 22,000 reservists in response to what officials describe as escalating military pressure from Beijing.
The Han Kuang drills are expected to last 10 days in concurrence with civil defense drills. It’s another indicator that beneath the surface calm of Taiwan’s vibrant cities, a more profound change is taking shape and in government halls, military installations, and civil society groups. A growing sense of urgency is quietly emerging.
China’s preparation for a potential invasion is no longer a distant possibility but a reality rapidly coming into focus —and defense planners are grappling with a pressing question: how and when will Washington act?
“Taiwan is incredibly reliant upon U.S. support for both deterrence against China, as well as a war-fighting invasion scenario,” Kitsch Liao, associate director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, tells The Cipher Brief. “The U.S. is the sole arms supplier for Taiwan because China has coerced every other country into not selling Taiwan any weapons.”
Taiwan, a democratic and technologically vital island of 24 million people, faces increasing military, economic, and political pressure from Beijing. As China accelerates its gray zone and overt military activities around the island, from AI-generated deepfakes and disinformation targeting political candidates to drones breaching airspace and the use of fishing vessels operating under PLA guidance, Taiwan’s defenses—and America’s credibility as a regional power—are being tested.
Xi’s Calculus: When Will He Move?
While Chinese President Xi Jinping publicly speaks of “peaceful reunification,” some analysts see his strategy shifting dramatically toward preparation for a potential war. In December, the People’s Liberation Army launched its largest naval operation in the Taiwan Strait since 1996, simulating a blockade and attacks on foreign ships. Amphibious landing drills, maritime pressure campaigns, and cyber operations have intensified.
“Relations are pretty bad, especially as China’s economy struggles,” Taiwanese legislator and Kuma Academy founder Puma Shen tells The Cipher Brief. “If the economy falters, ideology becomes more important. Xi Jinping has chosen nationalism and the goal of ‘Great China’ as the main ideology, with taking back Taiwan as a key step.”
In 2021, Admiral Phil Davidson, then Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China might seek to take Taiwan by 2027. Others predict a longer timeline, possibly into the 2030s. Yet most experts agree on one thing: an invasion is no longer a question of “if” but “when.”
“If I had to give a range, I’d say possibly between 2032 and 2040,” Alexander Huang, Special Advisor to the Chairman and Director of International Affairs for the opposition KMT, tells The Cipher Brief. “There’s this unscientific estimate floating around that Xi might want to accomplish something ‘big’ before turning 80. That makes the next decade a period to observe.”
Even if a full-scale invasion is delayed, Taiwan still faces near-term risks, including cyberattacks, blockades, disinformation, and surprise strikes.
“A war with Taiwan would not be localized. Missiles would likely hit Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines,” Scott Huang, a researcher at Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council, tells The Cipher Brief. “These countries would get involved. That’s why China has been hesitant to initiate real war.”
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China’s Pressure Campaign: War Without Invasion
Beijing’s strategic ambiguity mirrors its doctrine of political warfare. As Liao points out, “China observes no rules and offers no restrictions in conducting influence and espionage operations against the Taiwanese public.”
“We are talking about everything from ostensibly religious organization exchanges, charity support, to funneling illegal campaign contributions, and utilizing local Mafia for blackmail and potential assassinations,” he continued. “The CCP United Front and espionage effort has been able to increase existing societal contradictions, such as Taiwan’s ever-difficult identity issues, driving wedges into political issues, and convincing the Taiwanese population that they cannot possibly fight the Chinese.”
Beijing has been using cyberwarfare and information operations against Taiwan’s population ahead of any potential military action. With Taiwan’s strategic location and its centrality in the global supply chain—especially in semiconductors—China understands that victory does not need to come solely through kinetic means.
Semiconductors and Strategic Leverage
For Washington, the stakes are immense. Taiwan’s TSMC manufactures approximately 90 percent of the world’s advanced semiconductors, powering AI, military systems, and the global economy. Washington has been trying to change that.
TSMC’s decision, made more than five years ago, to build fabrication plants in the United States—most notably a $40 billion investment in Arizona—has been hailed as a move to bolster supply chain security and reduce dependence on East Asia. The project includes two advanced chip facilities in Phoenix, one of which is expected to manufacture cutting-edge 3-nanometer chips by 2026.
But Chen’s comments reflect a deeper strategic reality: the most advanced nodes of chip manufacturing, engineering talent, and supply chain infrastructure remain deeply entrenched in Taiwan. The Arizona expansion may provide redundancy, but some experts believe it cannot fully replace the island’s dominant role in global chip production. For Beijing, that leverage adds to the strategic calculus. For Washington, it highlights why Taiwan’s security is inextricably linked to America’s economic and national security interests.
“Semiconductors are Taiwan’s major strategic asset. But whether the recent investment in Arizona was TSMC’s idea or happened under U.S. pressure is unclear,” Liang-Chih Evans Chen, an associate research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, tells The Cipher Brief. “It could be seen as Taiwan trying to spread its risk by diversifying manufacturing. That’s a reasonable strategy, but it’s not realistic to completely move TSMC out of Taiwan.”
Beyond economics, the Taiwan Strait is also a maritime artery.
“About 80 percent of ships in Asia pass through the Taiwan Strait,” Shen notes. “Taiwan also produces key technology components, like chips, that power global industries. A conflict would impact housing prices and economies worldwide.”
America’s Unfinished Playbook
Despite lacking formal diplomatic ties or a defense treaty with Taiwan, the U.S. remains the island’s primary arms supplier and strategic partner. While President Trump’s current remarks favor ambiguity—he’s declined to specify if he’d defend Taiwan. His administration approved major arms sales to Taiwan and oversaw the highest-level U.S. visit in decades. The mixed signals complicate planning, but signal continuity in support.
Five months ago, the State Department quietly removed language that distanced the U.S. from supporting an independent Taiwan. In March, the G7 issued a firm rebuke of China’s coercive tactics toward Taiwan, omitting the “One China” language for the first time.
Vice President J.D. Vance has called China the “biggest threat” to Washington. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently warned that “the threat China poses is real. And it could be imminent.”
Still, ambiguity persists at the highest levels. Trump has declined to specify whether he would defend Taiwan, stating, “I don’t want to ever put myself in that position.” He has also said, “Taiwan should pay us for defense.”
Internal divisions and a slow-moving bureaucracy continue to be critical challenges.
“We still don’t have a confirmed Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia. Same with the Pentagon’s Indo-Pacific Security Affairs post. That leaves a massive vacuum in communication,” stressed Alexander Huang. “There’s no alliance treaty, no joint exercises, no shared doctrine, no direct communication network. How can they help? We don’t even have interoperability — no Identification Friend or Foe system.”
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Taiwan’s Military and Civil Preparedness
Taiwan has approximately 200,000 active-duty personnel. China’s military dwarfs it, with an estimated two to three million personnel and theater commands focused on Taiwan.
“Although they wouldn’t mobilize their entire force, they have specific theater commands focused on Taiwan… and China could easily redirect forces from other regions if needed,” observed Chen.
Taiwan is rapidly investing in submarines, drones, and advanced U.S.-made fighter jets. Yet delivery delays and domestic political gridlock complicate readiness.
“Despite being eager to purchase more American arms, Taipei has struggled to receive its purchases in a timely fashion—harming long-term readiness,” Jack Burnham, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, tells The Cipher Brief.
A $6 billion defense budget cut by the KMT-majority legislature earlier this year further strained capabilities, experts lamented, prompting pressure from President Lai for the frozen funds to be “unfrozen” in June. Still, the waiting game has many on edge.
“The first indigenous submarine was supposed to undergo trials this October, but it’s already behind schedule,” Chen said. “With budget cuts, we don’t know what will happen with submarines two and three.”
Experts also warn that most civilians remain unprepared for large-scale conflict.
“We’re prepared in the same way we turn on Netflix every night and say, ‘Oh, poor people in Ukraine or Gaza—but not us!’” Alexander Huang points out. “We think we’re the chosen ones, living on a beautiful island.”
Should China act, Taiwan will require resupply from the U.S.—missiles, fuel, medical kits, and more. Escorting convoys, running blockades, and challenging Chinese air superiority will almost certainly demand U.S. military intervention. Analysts underscore that the time for preparation is narrowing.
“During an invasion scenario, Taiwan will eventually require resupply for everything from missiles to critical medical supplies,” Liao surmises. “Escorting such supply convoys and running a Chinese blockade would require U.S. intervention. There are very few scenarios where Taiwan can win alone.”
But experts agree that if Taiwan falls, the global consequences will be felt far beyond the Taiwan Strait.
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