A JCPOA on Life Support

By Jason Brodsky

Jason M. Brodsky is currently the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), where he manages its research and writing portfolios. He is also a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program. Previously, he worked as a senior Middle East analyst and an editor at Iran International TV. From 2013-16, he served in a variety of capacities at the Wilson Center, including as special assistant (research/writing) to the Director, President and CEO former Congresswoman Jane Harman; as a research associate in its Middle East Program; and as special advisor to Distinguished Fellow Aaron David Miller. Earlier in his career, Jason served as a fellow at the White House in the Executive Office of the President. His research specialties include leadership dynamics in Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Shiite militias, and U.S. Middle East policy. Jason holds a B.A., summa cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa, from Brandeis University; a J.D., cum laude, from the University of Miami School of Law; and an LL.M., with distinction, from the Georgetown University Law Center.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran is on life support.  Despite the pledges of allegiance to its implementation, Iran is now likely to undertake its fourth phase of reduction in commitments on or around November 5.  A familiar circular firing squad of recriminations will then commence: the United States will protest and sanction; Europe will release a statement expressing its deep concern; and Iran will insist its violations are reversible only if it receives an economic bang for its nuclear buck.

But as we enter this latest episode of nuclear brinksmanship with Iran, we may be in for more of a breakdown rather than a breakthrough for three reasons: the next phases may be different from all other phases; the coming months will test the staying power of the JCPOA; and regional stakeholders are beginning to think that the Trump administration is all hat and no cattle, emboldening Iran even further.

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