The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

In this episode of The Cipher Brief’s State Secrets podcast, host Suzanne Kelly sits down with retired U.S. Army General Bryan Fenton, former commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, for a wide-ranging conversation about the changing character of war — and what the United States will need to stay ahead on the battlefield of the future.

After 38 years in uniform and a career spent across the special operations community, Fenton brings a unique perspective on how warfare is evolving. He explains what he sees more clearly now from outside government, including the growing role of America’s private sector in developing technologies and capabilities that could prove critical to national security.

Drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine, Fenton describes a future battlefield where exquisite, billion-dollar military systems operate alongside enormous numbers of cheaper, attritable systems. From autonomous drones in the air to uncrewed vehicles on land, on the surface of the ocean and underwater, he explains why scale, autonomy and the ability to integrate these technologies could fundamentally reshape how militaries fight.

Kelly and Fenton also explore what a special operations force built for this new era might look like, how artificial intelligence, cyber and space are changing the equation, and whether the long-held special operations principle that “humans are more important than hardware” can survive in an increasingly autonomous world.

The conversation expands beyond the battlefield to China’s growing economic, diplomatic and military power, competition in the gray zone, foreign information operations and the role special operations can play below the threshold of conventional conflict. Fenton also makes the case that America’s economic strength, private capital, manufacturing base and culture of innovation are inseparable from its national security.

At the center of it all is deterrence. For Fenton, the ultimate measure of military strength isn’t whether America can fight the next great power war — it’s whether the United States and its allies can remain capable enough that an adversary decides not to start one in the first place.

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