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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

There Will be Unseen Costs to be Paid over the War in Iran. Who is Weighing Them?

As Negotiations Enter an ‘Operational Pause’, the Devil of any Deal is still in the Details.

TOPSHOT-IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-TRANSPORT-HORMUZ

EXPERT INTERVIEW – With an interim agreement expected as early as today between the U.S. and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping [...] More

Middle East Iran Brad Christian
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The Open Source Report

IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-DAILYLIFE Iranians enjoy the seashore as vessels are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. The US President signalled on August 9 that he was prepared to let economic pressure mount against Iran, apparently backing away from more military strikes after Tehran issued a list of demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz. His remarks came after Iran issued over the weekend a list of conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained largely closed since the start of the Middle East war in late February. (Photo by Atta KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) /

Global Intelligence Report for Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Four crew, two rescuers killed in Red Sea Houthi attack as U.S. forces strike vessel in Gulf

Iran said to have known intimate details of Trump’s stay at NATO summit in Turkey

German Cabinet greenlights controversial intelligence service reforms amid hybrid threats

North Korea conducts another missile launch ahead of key South Korea-U.S. military drills

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

How Ukraine Is Changing the Way the U.S. Army Fights

Walter Pincus

“To me, the biggest way that we're doing this is introducing technology into the [U.S. Army] formations that is not fully baked. And so all of us who were in the Army in the 90s, the 2000s, even the 2010s, you were issued [...] More

Walter Pincus Fine Print
Opinion

America, North Korea, and the Search for Peace

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani

The South Korean Buddhist monk, the Venerable Pomnyun Sunimin, in his book “What is Happiness?” introduces us to his philosophy of life: “Everyone born into this world has the right to be happy … and being helpful to the [...] More

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani
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News & Analysis

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

Editor’s note- Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the character of warfare, proving that autonomous and attritable drones are no [...] More

Tech/Cyber Xen

Opinion

The Houthis’ External and Internal Crises Converge: Can a Tactical Solution Fix a Strategic Problem?

Ari Heistein

The Houthis’ External and Internal Crises Converge: Can a Tactical Solution Fix a Strategic Problem?

As they fire dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles against Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemeni government-controlled areas, the Houthis are [...] More

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Book Reviews

Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience
Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience

Sects, Lies, and Statecraft
Sects, Lies, and Statecraft

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The Best National Security Gossip

GERMANY’S SPIES GET PERMISSION TO SPY: The Guardian reports that the German cabinet has approved legislation dramatically expanding the powers of the country’s foreign intelligence service, the BND, and domestic security service, the BfV — including the authority to hack computer systems, disrupt foreign cyber operations and use spyware and AI to analyze data. The reforms (which must still pass parliament) would also allow German intelligence to take active measures against threats, including secretly neutralizing explosives. That provision comes amid growing concern over hybrid operations, including last week’s discovery [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Recorded on location in Kyiv, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery joins Suzanne Kelly for a timely State Secrets conversation on how Ukraine is reshaping the future of warfare.

Editor's Note: We caught up with Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery in Kyiv just as President Zelensky announced the firing of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, prompting a wave of protests. Since this interview was recorded, additional developments - including changes in Ukraine's military leadership - have overtaken parts of that discussion. The strategic insights on Ukraine's battlefield innovation, however, remain as relevant as ever.

From Ukraine's increasingly effective long-range drone campaign against Russia's military infrastructure to the growing strain on Kyiv's air defenses, Montgomery explains why this war is becoming the world's most important laboratory for military innovation. He also shares firsthand observations from his latest trip to Ukraine - including conversations with commanders on the front lines - and discusses what the U.S., NATO, and Taiwan should be learning before the next major conflict.