The Arab world woke up to a new U.S. President-elect after an election race many had closely followed. The Cipher Brief’s Executive Editor, Fionnuala Sweeney spoke to network member Rob Richer, the CIA’S former Associate Deputy Director of Operations, to ask about government reaction in the Arab world and what concerns or otherwise there may be.
The Cipher Brief: What is your general reaction in the Arab world?
Rob Richer: No-one in the Arab world expected the results, so the reaction has been pretty significantly one of concern, and it’s a concern depending on where you are in the Middle East. The Saudis now see a Republican dominated legislature and Republican Executive. They are worried about what came to pass under the Obama administration, by that I mean the 911 law holding the Saudis accountable for 9/11, which was put on the back burners once people realized the implications. The Saudis are very concerned this will now go full course against them. They see an anti-Arab bias in the President-elect, and they also see a Republican-controlled Congress which could mean that 911 bill will get more support and will never be modified. The Saudis view this as a serious bilateral concern and they see it as a potential liability concern.
They are also worried with how President-elect Trump has characterized Islam, whether you call it extremist Islam or radical Islam. They are worried that if that rhetoric continues it will galvanize more conservative Muslims and cause future problems particularly in terms of the Arab world’s dealings with the West and the United States.
TCB: What are the implications for Syria and ISIS?
RR: The reaction among our coalition friends who are fighting ISIS is more of a mixed reaction; a number of them don’t believe that the current administration has been aggressive enough about going against ISIS. In that regard, they are hoping that the claims by the president-elect to have a more aggressive ISIS plan may change the conflict. There is some hope on that; the mixed part is that Mr. Trump has stated he wants to work with the Russians, which gives the Saudis and the Jordanians great pause because the Syrian Free Army, backed and trained by the U.S., is in the crosshairs of the Syrian and Russian armed forces. The Syrian Free Army is worried the Trump-Putin relationship is going to undermine their efforts.
TCB: What are the implications for Israeli-Palestinians process?
RR: A driving concern is Jerusalem. President-elect Trump is on the record as supporting Israel’s claim to Jerusalem. He is known to be an admirer of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli right. He has never visited an Arab country or had a substantive discussion with an Arab leader. From the Arab perspective, Mr. Trump supports the people on the other side of the table, in this case, Israel, which just got a 38-billion-dollar deal for defense support for the next ten years. Arabs are very concerned about the perceived lack of U.S. impartiality on the Israel-Palestinian peace process or even trying to get the peace process moving.
TCB: What happens with refugees?
RR: A number of countries in the region—Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan—can no longer take refuges so they have them stacked up at their borders waiting to get in. The campaign platform for the President-elect was “no more refugees” period – that they can go to other places. So where do they go? Europe’s not going to take them. We now have reached a situation which is what are you going to do with a 150,000 – 200,000 more refugees? Jordan has about 200,000 refugees sitting across their border trying to get in. Lebanon has got more than that. Where do they go? And if there’s no answer for them, then that in itself is an answer.
TCB: Any other thoughts?
RR: The uncertainty is amazing and concerning. Part of it is the fact that there has been no dialogue from the Republican side about the Middle East and no exposure to the Middle East. If you want me to give my takeaway from this election and its impact on reaction in the Middle East, it’s the uncertainty. Between Jerusalem, the refugee crisis, the relationship with Putin and in turn, his relationship with Assad, combined with a lack of Republican knowledge about the region, make the Arab world’s concerns palpable mainly because there’s no information out there. People in the region are already asking who’s going to be in various administration positions? It’s of concern to them who is going to be Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State. No-one knows what President-elect Trump’s administration will look like or what his policies will be in the first 90-180 days, or if he will keep his campaign pledges. Presidents don’t keep their campaign pledges once in office, but if Mr. Trump does because he has a Republican House behind him, there could be a real problem in the coming year.
