The Ukraine Diaries is a series of personal writings by national security experts who joined The Cipher Brief’s recent visit to Kyiv as part of a delegation led by Gen. David Petraeus (Ret.) This latest trip follows two earlier visits to Ukraine this year by The Cipher Brief team, including The Cipher Brief’s Kyiv Economic & Security Forum that launched in May 2023.
THE UKRAINE DIARIES — When I first visited Ukraine with The Cipher Brief in May, just ahead of the much-anticipated third Ukrainian counteroffensive, western commentators and media had raised expectations for dramatic Ukrainian breakthroughs. By contrast, Ukrainian military and civilian leaders were confident of success, but more muted in expectations. They did not predict or expect a Russian rout. Rather, knowing what they faced and that the going would be tough, they saw this as one phase of a long campaign.
Reflecting on that realization of a long war to come, it is clear now that Ukraine is in the midst of a physical and mental adjustment from the adrenaline-fueled sprint that followed the onset of the Russian invasion to the marathon of what promises to be an extended struggle.
Perhaps a race is a poor analogy, but I’ll run with it anyway. A marathoner has the luxury of deliberate and extended preparation, gradually building up miles and stamina before race day. But Ukraine has had to transition without pause from a desperate sprint to the ultra-marathon needed to win the war. The nation is steeling itself for a long fight.
To push a much larger and more heavily-armed Russian army out of Ukrainian territory, Ukraine must fight with greater smarts, speed, and precision than its Soviet model adversary. Amazingly, it is doing just that, despite terrible losses.
The costs of war for Ukrainian families and society are horrific. Casualty, strain, and fatigue are the inevitable results of fighting the largest European land war since Hitler was defeated in 1945. Nevertheless, I heard from all levels, a steady determination to fight until the invaders are defeated. There is no diminution of will or goals – to retake all sovereign UKR territory and end the war on terms which ensures it will not be repeated.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making deliberate, and deliberately slow, progress. Russia had time to build extensive defensive preparations – complex minefields and trench systems, backed by still significant artillery and dug in infantry. Those defenses, and lack of air superiority, means that Ukraine’s armed forces have had to significantly adjust tactics.
Follow Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly for a series of Behind-the-Scenes images from The Cipher Brief’s Trip in Ukraine on LinkedIn
NATO doctrine for offensive operations has not yet caught up with the type of warfare now taking place in Ukraine. World War I trench systems combined with ubiquitous, persistent, and lethal drone coverage makes for a conflict never before fought by the US or its allies. Russian air superiority over the battlefield further complicates Ukraine’s effort to break through Russian lines.
Adapting on the fly, Ukraine has turned to small unit assaults, painstaking minefield clearance, inadequate counterbattery fire, and follow-on armor to successfully push back Russian forces 300-500 meters at a time. There is a rhythm. UAF infantry assaults a trench or tree line and holds it against Russian counterattack and artillery. The units are then reinforced and rotated, more mines are cleared, and the cycle repeats. It is painstaking work, and Ukraine is doing everything it can do minimize casualties while still making progress.
Russia still has a manpower advantage with approximately 450,000 troops in occupied area across a 600-mile-long front. Russia has air superiority, more artillery, and can broadly match losses with conscription and stealth mobilization of 20-25 thousand new troops a month. Another larger mobilization campaign is likely this fall or winter.
Russia is undertaking unsuccessful offensive operations near Kupyansk, and barely holding on near Bakhmut, while steadily losing ground around Robotnye. Russia northern offensive operations are looking more and more like a diversion, without significant territorial success, and are failing to draw off Ukrainian forces from the south.
In Bakhmut, the cauldron into which Russia poured wave after wave of Wagnerites and mobiks, the Russians are pinned down, have lost the flanks, and continue to suffer high casualties. Ukrainian commanders believe their strategy of defending Bakhmut and bleeding the Russian forces has paid off in enormous Russian casualty counts and decimated, demoralized units. Russia has been left without the mass to mount a major offensive and must draw upon precious reserves to hold the line.
Nevertheless, the Bakhmut fight and delays in launching the Ukrainian counteroffensive gave Russia time to build the deep defenses which are proving so problematic now. Plenty of blame for the delay is being slung around, including complaints about Western arms deliveries which were too little, too late.
Read The Future of Cyberwar is being Shaped in Ukraine by Cipher Brief Senior National Security Analyst Walter Pincus
How an earlier, less well equipped and trained Ukrainian offense would have fared against a less developed Russian defense can be argued ad infinitum. A key Ukrainian learning is that it must sustain pressure and keep Russia on the backfoot. Expect UAF to stay on the move longer than anticipated, into the winter, pushing steadily on Russian forces, even if at a reduced pace and without any big break throughs.
The gains in the Zaporozhe region are steady and meaningful. Significantly, Ukraine needs to advance only another 15-20 km or so before Russian land bridge lines of communication to Crimea come within range of Ukrainian artillery fire. Ukrainian forces do not need to reach the sea to begin to seriously interdict Crimean supply lines, a key strategic goal of this counteroffensive.
The deep drone war will continue on both sides. Russia continues to strike Ukrainian port and grain storage facilities and will renew its campaign to attack energy infrastructure once weather starts to turn colder. Ukraine will step up the pace of drone attacks on military, infrastructure, and political targets inside Russia. Surprises on this front await.
The new UKR Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is an experienced politician, Member of Parliament, and a Muslim Crimean Tartar. He is articulate, polished, and strategic. Immediately upon assuming office, he outlined his priorities as defense coordination, transparent procurement, soldier well-being/recruitment, and leadership development.
Umerov will help with outreach and relations with Turkey, the Middle East and will help counter Russia’s attempt to coopt nations in Africa, Latin America, and Asia which have studiously avoided taking sides. With the war stretching into years and creating disruption in global food, energy, and transportation markets, Ukraine must win friends and influence beyond Europe and the United States. Not coincidently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with Saudi Arabia’s Mohamad bin Salman just after Umerov’s appointment.
Early US fears that delivery of deep strike weapons would meet with Russian escalation have proven unfounded. Nevertheless, continued delays and restrictions on critically needed weapons systems mean that Ukraine’s combat power is limited in crucial ways. They desperately need more heavy munitions, long-range weapons, air defense, drones, intelligence systems, mine-clearing capabilities, and armor.
Ukraine’s single point of failure right now, is the risk of the US going wobbly in its support.
We heard from all quarters, effusive appreciation for US leadership and aid, along with acknowledgment that without it, Ukraine could not have resisted this long. One senior military official remarked that he is acutely aware that it is American teachers, truckers, and farmers who are supporting Ukraine’s fight. At the same time, we fielded numerous Ukrainian questions on this visit about whether politics at home would squeeze or interrupt the supplies that Ukraine needs to win.
Read It’s Time for the West to Embrace Ukraine’s Way of War, Not Doubt It by Non-Resident Russia Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War Nataliya Bugayova
Is Ukraine a vital US interest? If it wasn’t seen as such before Russia’s invasion, but it must be seen as such now. The US has committed itself to Ukraine’s victory, anything short of this will be a win for Russia.
A Russian victory would send a signal, not least to China, that wanton aggression pays. A Russian victory would cement its narrative of democratic and rules-based states on decline, and on the authoritarian model of restored empire on the rise. A Russian victory would demonstrate that mass murder, child abductions, attacks on global food supplies, and nuclear intimidation works. And a Russian victory would demonstrate that the US has let down a friend it pledged to support.
Ukraine is not looking for - and does not want - the US or anyone else to fight. But it does need to know that we have Kyiv’s back for as long as it takes.
If 9/11 shaped the world and the following two decades of geopolitics, the war in Ukraine promises an even more profound impact on the US and the rest of the world. Russia knows that it can only win in Ukraine if it can peel off US support. The President, Congress, and citizens across the country must play defense to make sure this doesn’t happen.
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