Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

NatSecEdge
cipherbrief

Welcome! Log in to stay connected and make the most of your experience.

Input clean

Ordinary Russians are Paying for Putin's Poor Alaska Performance

OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – The Russian state media's triumphant coverage of Vladimir Putin's August 15 meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska tells a familiar story: the great leader Putin has once again outmaneuvered the West, broken his international isolation, and secured recognition as an equal on the world stage. The reality, however, tells a different story entirely.

While Putin's propagandists work overtime to spin the Alaska meeting as a diplomatic victory, the facts reveal a Russian president who traveled thousands of kilometers only to return home empty-handed, his war machine no closer to achieving its objectives in Ukraine than it was before the meeting.


Thanks to what appears to be U.S. planning documents accidentally left on a hotel printer as reported by National Public Radio, we have a clearer picture of what Putin may have hoped to achieve in Alaska, and what he spectacularly failed to secure. The original itinerary included an expanded working lunch with senior U.S. economic officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Steve Lutnik. Their presence would have signaled American willingness to discuss sanctions relief and expanded trade, the economic lifeline Putin desperately needs as his war economy strains under international pressure.

Instead, Putin found himself in abbreviated meetings with a U.S. president who refused to offer any meaningful concessions without concrete steps toward ending the war in Ukraine. No private tête-à-tête, no economic discussions, no promises of sanctions relief - just the same message the Kremlin has been hearing from the West for over three years now: end the war, then we can talk.

The contrast between Putin's return journey and Trump's is particularly telling. While Trump spent his flight consulting with European allies and announced that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would visit the White House just days later, Putin's "diplomatic triumph" consisted of a factory visit in provincial Magadan, and a phone call with his Belarusian vassal Alexander Lukashenko. For a man who once commanded attention on the global stage, this is a remarkably diminished itinerary.

Need a daily dose of reality on national and global security issues? Subscriber to The Cipher Brief’s Nightcap newsletter, delivering expert insights on today’s events – right to your inbox. Sign up for free today.

The Kremlin's attempts to highlight increased U.S.-Russia trade since Trump's return to office only underscore Putin's weak position. These modest increases pale in comparison to the massive economic damage inflicted by three years of sanctions and international isolation.

Russia's economy remains fundamentally distorted by military spending, its demographic crisis deepened by mobilization and emigration, and its technological sector crippled by export restrictions.

What Putin received in Alaska was not recognition of Russian strength, but a final diplomatic opportunity that he appears to have squandered through his continued insistence on maximalist demands in Ukraine. Trump's willingness to meet, despite significant domestic political risks, represented exactly the kind of face-saving diplomatic opening that a more pragmatic Russian leader might have seized upon to begin extracting his country from an increasingly costly quagmire.

Who’s Reading this? More than 500K of the most influential national security experts in the world. Need full access to what the Experts are reading?

Instead, Putin's intransigence has left him more isolated than ever. His remaining international partners -China, India, Turkey, and the UAE - continue to engage with Moscow primarily for their own economic interests, not out of respect for Russian power or Putin's leadership. But even these relationships are increasingly transactional, with partners carefully avoiding actions that might trigger secondary sanctions.

The most damaging aspect of Putin's missed opportunity in Alaska is not what he failed to achieve internationally, but what his empty-handed return signals domestically.

Three years into a "special military operation" that was supposed to last days, the Russian president has little to show his population beyond mounting casualties, economic hardship, and diplomatic isolation. His inability to secure meaningful concessions from the United States, even from a president theoretically more sympathetic to Russian concerns, exposes the fundamental weakness of his position.

Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? There is no better place to get clear perspectives from deeply experienced national security experts.

Putin's war has not made Russia stronger or more respected; it has made the country a pariah state dependent on increasingly costly relationships with authoritarian regimes. His Alaska journey, rather than marking Russia's return to great power status, instead highlights how far the country has fallen from its post-Soviet aspirations to rejoin the community of civilized nations.

The tragedy is that Putin's stubbornness is prolonging a war that is devastating not just Ukraine, but Russia itself. Every day the conflict continues, more Russian families lose sons and fathers, the economy becomes more distorted by military spending, and the country's international isolation deepens. The diplomatic window that Trump opened in Alaska may not remain open indefinitely, and Putin's next opportunity for a face-saving exit may come at an even steeper price.

For ordinary Russians watching state television celebrations of their president's "diplomatic victory," the question should be simple: if Putin won so decisively in Alaska, why is the war still grinding on, why are sanctions still crushing the economy, and why is Russia more isolated than ever? The answer, unfortunately, is that there was no victory at all - only another missed opportunity for a leader increasingly disconnected from both international realities and his own people's interests.

Disclaimer: All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. Government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. Government authentication of information or endorsement of the author's views.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.

Watch Now

Related Articles

​The Weekend Interview: Former CIA Station Chief on Strategic Global Hotspots

​The Weekend Interview: Former CIA Station Chief on Strategic Global Hotspots

WEEKEND INTERVIEW: The signing of a peace framework between the President of Armenia and the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan on Friday at the White [...] More

Ukraine’s Defense may Hinge on Offensive Operations

Ukraine’s Defense may Hinge on Offensive Operations

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – Russia has been bombarding Ukrainian cities with massive aerial assaults, two days after U.S. President Donald Trump pledged [...] More

How Trump Can Be the Winning President in Ukraine

“To each there comes in their lifetime a special moment when they are figuratively tapped on the shoulder and offered the chance to do a very special [...] More

NATO Lures Trump Back - at a Cost

NATO Lures Trump Back - at a Cost

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – The stakes at this week’s NATO summit were sky-high – support for Ukraine, a shoring up of Europe’s defenses, and the [...] More

As Negotiations Over Ukraine Drag On, What Can Putin Stand to Lose?

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE - “How Many Divisions has the Pope Got?” Josef Stalin’s sarcastic, contemptuous dismissal of an appeal by Pope Pius XI to a higher [...] More

What Comes After Istanbul Will Define Ukraine

Never give in—never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense. [...] More