SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE — As the first 2024 US presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump approaches (a debate that may prove to be one of the most consequential showdowns of this unusual campaign) The Cipher Brief wanted to know what was top of mind for our network of national and global security experts. Many of them have served in positions that report directly to the president, others have spent their careers working undercover in difficult locations around the world, some have led analysis efforts that inform policy makers and others have served as deep subject matter experts on the regions of the world that matter most right now.
We asked all of them what issues they thought were most important in today's complicated global security environment and in particular, in this debate. Their answers - collectively - tell us what's top of mind for some of the most experienced national security experts in the world, and what they are looking to hear from the candidates vying to serve as the next president of the United States.
So, what will they be listening for?
"Recognition of the continued need for U.S. leadership in the face of unprecedented global challenges, including support for Ukraine and an enduring presence in the Middle East, as failure to do that will undermine deterrence in the Indo-Pacific (undermining the perception of our willingness to use our forces and capabilities)."
"I will be listening for three things. Top of my list is attitude of the two candidates toward China – in particular, the level of support for Taiwan if tensions rise. A very close second is support for Ukraine; that, in my view, should be robust. (And by the way, both president Xi and President Putin will likewise be listening very carefully for those two elements of the debate.) Third, I’m curious if either candidate is willing to commit to stopping the Houthi attacks on the global supply chain and American sovereign warships which have decreased traffic through the Suez Canal by 80% thus far. Doing so will require a far more aggressive stance toward Iran. So I’m listening for where the candidates stand on Taiwan, Ukraine and Iran."
"I’m just intrigued in what both sides have to say about the value of alliances. Alliances are a feature that the free world enjoys and that autocratic regimes envy and fear. Will whoever is elected understand their value to the free world in general and to America in particular?"
"I’ll be looking for positions on sustaining key collective security organizations like NATO. I’ll also be looking for positions on improving the defense industrial base. Last, a recognition that violent extremist organizations remain alive and well, and are in a period of growth."
"Both candidates will tout their approach to stopping the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Neither currently has an approach that will solve the problem. In one case, capitulation will simply allow the belligerent to refit and better prepare for the next attack. In the other case, our options are overly deterred by fear of Mr. Putin’s threats of nuclear weapons and a widening war. We need better options."
"What are they each doing on the issue of information quality—the foundation of free and open societies in the digital age and the underpinning of all advances in AI? And given that more and more activities of our adversaries and competitors fall outside the norms and laws that were established when all conflict was physical—activities that we now loosely lump into 'Gray Zone Warfare' — what are their plans to establish norms in those now contested spaces before they escalate?"
"Because I think Ukraine is the pivotal event in international relations right now, I’ll be curious to see if Trump gets it – or if he’s still stuck on what a great guy Putin is."
"This debate is pivotal—very consequential. I am concerned, of course, about the usual suspects—Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and their evolving “axis of convenience.” Will we stay the course in Ukraine? With Gaza, Dave Petraeus’ famous rhetorical question applies: “Tell me how this is going to end.”
"I'll be watching for what both say about NATO and Ukraine. Will Biden finally take ownership of making sure that Ukraine wins this war? Biden has now twice said that he wants Ukraine to win, but there is no plan, and the United States is still imposing restrictions on aid, which holds Ukraine back. For his part, will Trump take credit for saving the aid package for Ukraine when it was stuck in Congress? Or will he allow doubts about his support for Ukraine to continue? And will either say we need to bring Ukraine into NATO as part of how we end the war?"
"What’s the plan to ensure that Iran, now a nuclear threshold state, does not deploy a nuclear weapon? And how is the U.S. planning to deal with this century’s axis of tyranny? What are the implications of Russia’s alliance with North Korea, Iran and China–which encourage those nations to be more aggressive?"
"I have always had a bit of sympathy for intelligence officers abroad charged with analyzing U.S. politics. Like our allies and adversaries, I will be watching the debate for signals on the future of U.S. leadership in the international order. This is not only a question of willingness, but fiscal direction and military capabilities."
"I’ll be looking at two major issues – with no preconceived notions, since everything is on the table, issue-wise, in this election year. First, where do the two candidates stand on the future of NATO, to include NATO membership for Ukraine? Will the U.S. role in NATO be one of leadership or one of detachment? Second, in the Middle East, what should be done about Bibi (Benjamin Netanyahu) and his coalition government which appears hellbent on widening the war with HAMAS to include Hezbollah? And how should the U.S. capitalize on Saudi Arabia's renewed interest in partnering with the U.S., and potentially with Israel?"
"What will the two candidates do about Ukraine? Will they seek to help Kyiv drive invading Russian forces back eastward, or will they seek to convince Ukraine to accept the current level of Russian occupation as a fact on the ground? Secondly, what will the candidates do about the threat posed by Iran to Middle East and Gulf regional stability?"
"The Western ecosystem was built on the backs of what we term as the Greatest Generation. It allows us to make a stand against authoritarianism and the corruption it brings. It allows us to be a global market leader, enables us to borrow money freely and creates a light of democracy that others can aspire to. It allows us to lead in ways that other countries will follow (both by our example and our power.) Abandoning this relationship, built on the backs of our Greatest Generation, would be the most spectacular “own goal” that any of us could imagine. I am watching carefully to see if we are so short-sighted and inattentive that we let the foundational principles of what our nation means to the world, and the benefits we receive as a consequence, slip away. Another issue is that we have the opportunity to lead the world in is the transformational technology of the accelerating digital age. I'm watching to see if either candidate boldly embraces this opportunity, or takes counsel of their fears. The second spectacular “own goal” would be to fail to embrace a transformation that will be the core of our national security competitiveness, economic competitiveness, as well as science, social and technology prowess. Are we going to lead the world in technology or not?"
"I am more worried now than in the past 10-15 years of a possible directed or coordinated terror attack on U.S. soil. I’m also concerned about the persistent cyber and counterintelligence threats. I intend to focus on what each candidate has to say about foreign policy and immigration. Specifically, what is their plan to strengthen international partnerships and increase intelligence collection in order to better protect the U.S.? I will also be focused on what their plan is for better understanding who has come to the U.S., and how we identify those who may pose a potential threat to the homeland."
"It would be good to know how the candidates will deal with President Vladimir Putin, his senseless war against Ukraine, and Russia’s malign influence globally. Sometimes, a detailed question can be revealing: President Trump started a new tactical nuclear weapon program called the “Sea Launched Cruise Missile – Nuclear” (the SLCM-N). President Biden canceled it in his nuclear posture review. If you win the election, what will you do and why?"
"The upcoming NATO Summit the Allies must finally organize for victory in the way that FDR and Churchill did at the ARCADIA Conference in January 1942, and the CASABLANCA Conference in January 1943. Make it our strategic aim that we help Ukraine defeat Russia first, which will in turn isolate Russia’s allies, Iran and North Korea. This will also deter China when it sees that the West has the political will, industrial capacity, and military capability to do all of this. It should also help Americans understand why NATO is essential to our security and our prosperity."
"Russia's new enhanced alliance with North Korea poses a greater threat to South Korea, Japan, Northeast Asia and the U.S. How did it get so bad with North Korea, after 30 years of negotiations and their leaders from Kim il-sung, Kim Jong il and now Kim Jong Un, all saying they want a normal relationship with the U.S., although persisting with their request to accept them as a nuclear weapons state, as we did with Pakistan? Wasn't there enough to work with, given our tool kit of diplomacy, economic assistance, military might, to at least keep them at the table and not become an ally of a revanchist Putin, who just wants North Korea's military support for their war in Ukraine and beyond."
"Three big issues: China, China and China. It will be easy for Trump to pound the table, without specifics, on how he would respond to a potential invasion of Taiwan as well as the overall threats posed by Chinese surveillance and technology — but as President, Biden will be constrained and yet want to sound equally clear-eyed about the threat."
"I’ll be highly tuned into the degree of American First isolationism sentiment that stands to threaten our global alliances and partners. I’ll also be interested to see which, if any, candidate can accurately describe the international geopolitical reality of a re-emerging and more complex and dangerous Cold War-like environment pitting liberal democratic powers against revanchist autocratic ones."
"I’m concerned with the prospect of an existentially risky Trump unilateralism which could weaken our collective defense and embolden Russia and China."
"What will your policy be if the Israeli Government seeks to annex the West Bank and abandon a two-state existence with the Palestinians? Under what circumstances do you believe federal military forces may properly be deployed in response to domestic disturbances, including anti-government protests? How do you view the independence of the Attorney General in relation to your authority as Chief Executive? Do you believe a President has the authority to pardon himself?"
"Will Trump commit to staying in the NATO alliance? Will Trump (and Biden) commit to supporting Kyiv against Putin? Who will run Gaza in the future and under what constitutional mandate?"
"For me, it’s pretty simple. Do they have a sense of urgency about the need to re-arm? And do they have the ability and are they willing to expend the political capital necessary to persuade the American people of the need to greatly increase our defense expenditures?"
"I’d like the candidates to state clearly their views on; The future of U.S. democracy; the NATO alliance; Russia; China; Iran; Israel; Border security; Economic security and Energy security."
"The U.S. and NATO have provided significant economic, military and humanitarian support to Ukraine in response to Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion. This support has helped Ukraine protect its sovereignty and defend its people from attacks aimed at doing the greatest possible damage to civilian targets. U.S. leadership has been crucial and decisive up to this point. The candidates’ positions on support to Ukraine will send a broader message to both allies and adversaries about our commitment to our allies and global democracies and our dependability as a global leader and partner. Russia will be watching closely, as will China, given the implications for US support to Taiwan. The U.S. global leadership role: Will we lead a global effort against authoritarian regimes or will we take a more isolationist approach? Great power competition isn’t just about the role of the U.S. in the world; it is also about promotion of democratic values, global stability, global trade and economic development, and respect for the sovereignty of all nations. The U.S. approach to China (and Taiwan): The candidates’ statements on how we approach China (trade, strategic deterrence, protection of US companies and technologies, and other key issues) will send strong signals to both China and Taiwan. Both will be paying close attention. U.S. priorities for counterterrorism: There is disagreement on the state of the terrorism threat from Afghanistan and the surrounding region. Experts have sounded the alarm on ISIS threats to the US. The candidates’ views on counterterrorism priorities for the next administration will be important."
"Despite concerns about the "America First" rhetoric and U.S. domestic fissures, our friends abroad seem to have generally coalesced around containing the "Axis of Disorder," whether in Ukraine, the East China Sea, or the Eastern Mediterranean. But non-aligned and Global South countries continue to sit on the sidelines and "shop for the best deals." What is your vision to dissuade these mineral-rich nations and their swelling youth populations from joining the "Axis of Disorder" – or, better, benefitting from the post-World War II liberal economic order?"
"Immigration, Immigration, Immigration. Plus a bit of Russia and Ukraine, and standing up for our Allies and Friends."
"I will be looking for the candidates to address how they will restore Americans’ faith in their institutions; revitalize the U.S. economy as a new arsenal of democracy; reverse the perception of U.S. irresolution and weakness on the international stage; repair the reputation of the U.S. as a reliable partner in supporting its closest allies in extremis; and reestablish control over our national borders."
"It would be useful to hear each candidate comment on their views of how to restore a sense of deterrence against aggressive world actors. Russia, China, and Iran are acting aggressively in an unprecedented manner. International institutions have little capacity to restrain these actors. U.S.-led partnerships have assisted with defense, but have not deterred aggression. Traditional partners increasingly question U.S. reliability and leadership. What steps will each candidate take to correct an alarming trend? (If a specific case is required, I would welcome comments on the Red Sea, where an Iranian militia has cut one of the world's most important trade arteries and months of U.S. military action – despite the splendid performance of our military – has not halted Houthi attacks."
"My primary concern relates to a new narrative where Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are reshaping global norms and diminishing the influence of democratic states. This is creating a significant threat to U.S. national security interests and puts us in a position where we must navigate supporting allies such as Ukraine and Israel while managing tensions in the Indo-Pacific region (e.g. China’s actions around Taiwan.) I want to better understand how each candidate is going to walk this line. I am also concerned about Russia, China and others utilizing disinformation campaigns and cyber operations aimed at sowing discord and spreading false information. The overarching goal of these efforts is to weaken the United States’ global influence, destabilize its political system, and promote a geopolitical environment more favorable to Russian and Chinese interests. And it is working. I would like to better understand how each candidate is going to defend against these actions while preserving the integrity of democratic processes. And I really want to understand the real roadblocks to better manage border security. Why is this so hard? And what is the plan that preserves our economic stability, public health, and overall national security interests?"
"I will be most interested in hearing what steps can be taken to accelerate support to Ukraine to end the Russian invasion and to mitigate the increasing threat to national security and global stability represented by Putin and Russia."
"I am most interested in two macro categories. The first is the strategic plan (if any) for dealing with technological competition (inclusive of AI) with China and if there is any policy in the works beyond the status quo. Second, like everyone, I want to know whether there will finally be a plan to mitigate the border crisis? Three years of an open border will harm the U.S. for decades. What is the plan?"
"I have no doubt that they’ll talk about China and Taiwan, Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, Iran and the Middle East. But I expect the more interesting discussion will be about economic security, how we remain the preeminent global economic player that we must be while managing China’s predatory trade practices, IP theft, intimidation of neighbors, etc."
"There are a few issues that I’ll be listening for in these debates. How each frames the challenge of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, Putin’s representation of it as a war against the West, and continued U.S.-NATO support for Ukraine and preparation for potentially more serious Russian action against NATO. Challenging China while still avoiding confrontation and ensuring U.S. interests in the Western Pacific and those of our allies. Confining the current conflict in the Middle East beyond just continued support for Israel, including containing Iran and its proxies. And American efforts to maintain the fraying international order and push back against autocracy."
"How do we ensure that rapidly advancing US-based innovation in the artificial intelligence realm is adequately protected from our adversaries who will do whatever it takes to steal it?"
"I will be looking for both candidates' thoughts on the national priority and roles of government and private industry in detecting and combating disinformation as well as defending our networks from cyber attacks. Also how do we forge and maintain international alliances to combat disinformation and defend against cyber threats."
"While there is no one correct view or solution to the continuing conflict in Gaza that has created a humanitarian crisis, it is essential that the US take a leadership role in driving some form of compromise that brings an end to hostilities. What is the roadmap - and to what extent is the US willing to commit to a leadership role - in driving resolution?"
"The potential divergence of opinions on the way ahead for U.S. support of Ukraine may be the most consequential. Decision son Ukraine, from both a national and global security perspective, will cascades on a global scale if we fail in our support. Moreover, it sends a message to our Allies, Adversaries, and fence-sitters as to the reliability of the US as a national security partner and global leader."
Updated to add quotes from Sir Alex Younger; Jon Darby, The Hon. Susan Gordon, Stephanie Bellistri, Ambassador Kurt Volker, Lt. Gen. Bob Ashley (Ret.)
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