Expert Q&A: Trump is Hurting Canada – and Hurting the U.S. in the Process

EXPERT INTERVIEW — Canada is a longtime U.S. ally, its U.S.’s second-largest trading partner and a fellow NATO member, but relations between the two countries have hit a low point since the second Trump administration took office. The U.S. has imposed tariffs against Canada and President Trump himself has threatened to make the country the “51st state,” following his repeated accusations that Canada maintains an unfair trade imbalance with the U.S. and turns a blind eye to migrant crossings and the traffic in the narcotic fentanyl. (While Trump has claimed that ​​“the fentanyl coming through Canada is massive,” U.S. Customs reported that just 43 pounds of the drug entered the U.S. from Canada last year; the figure from Mexico was more than 21,000 pounds). 

Last week, Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters that “the old relationship we had with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperations, is over.” He added that the U.S. tariffs were forcing Canada to readjust its economy and turn to more “reliable” trading partners.

On Friday, Trump spoke with Prime Minister Carney, and the call appeared to soften the rhetoric somewhat.

The Cipher Brief spoke about the U.S.-Canada crisis with Richard Fadden, who served as Canada’s National Security Advisor and director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. Fadden warned that irreparable damage was being done to the relationship. “Mr. Trump is throwing out the baby with the bathwater,” he said. “He could have accomplished a number of the things he wants to accomplish without all of the unintended consequences. And I think that’s what worries us more than anything – the lashing out of the U.S. government, not just against Canada, but against any number of countries, without thinking about the consequences, not just for these countries, but for the United States itself.”

Fadden spoke with Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity. You can watch the full discussion on The Cipher Brief YouTube channel.

The Cipher Brief: What have the last few months been like as you have watched not just the tariffs, but the general tone and tenor of statements and actions from Washington?

Fadden: To some degree it’s like going through the stages of grief. Shock, surprise, anger. Then realizing that this is not just about Canada, but it’s about the world, and then trying to figure out what we’re going to do about it. Everybody talks about how Mr. Trump is damaging the rules-based international order. We here are just as concerned that he’s devaluing and destroying the U.S. national rules-based order. The two of course are linked and we don’t see a great deal of encouragement – not much to look forward to over the next little while.

The Cipher Brief: When you say that Canada is trying to figure out what to do about it, that’s a huge question for any country. You’re a national security person. Through that lens, what goes through your mind in terms of a response?

Fadden: At one level, what Mr. Trump is doing in his own inimitable fashion is much the same as previous presidents have done. They’ve noted that we have not been pulling our weight on the national security front. I’ve been arguing this for a long time. Aside from dealing with tariffs, we’re going to have to up our spending on defense, on security, probably on foreign affairs more broadly. And I think this is now beginning to register. It has been registering for a while. 

The regrettable part is that, as I wrote recently in an op-ed, Mr. Trump is throwing out the baby with the bathwater. He could have accomplished a number of the things he wants to accomplish without all of the unintended consequences. And I think that’s what worries us more than anything – the lashing out of the U.S. government, not just against Canada, but against any number of countries, without thinking about the consequences, not just for these countries, but for the United States itself.

The Cipher Brief: What are the national security implications? Or are they all about the point you made at the outset, about the devaluing of the rules-based order?

Fadden: I think one of the great strengths of the United States over the decades is that it has recognized the power of alliances. Our strategic adversaries have no such thing. If you look at the media, if you talk to people around the world, it’s very clear that allies of the United States that have been allies for decades are now realizing that the United States commitments to its treaties and its alliances are not what they once were. And that’s going to hurt the United States, because that multiplier effect of alliances is going to go away. 

Mr. Trump argues that once he’s got everything sorted out, this will all come back to the way it was. I don’t think that’s the case. I think we’ve passed the Rubicon on this. It’s going to take a long time for the U.S.’s traditional allies to appreciate the way the world has changed, to adapt to it and come to a new relationship with the United States, which hopefully will not be to the benefit of Russia and China and others.

The Cipher Brief: In Trump’s first administration, he pulled out of a lot of global arrangements and deals that had been made, and then the Biden team worked to get back into those, with different degrees of success. Let’s say for argument’s sake that the pendulum swings back politically in this country; do you think that the damage will be such that it’s not going to be easily repaired?

Fadden: I don’t think it will be, because Mr. Trump’s approach, which has been an across-the-board reordering of international institutions, is going to take a while. Cutting funding from WHO, cutting USAID funding – these have a clear national security link. And the fact that a number of people are going to die or become very ill because of those two examples, people are not going to forget this overnight. 

Is it recoverable to a certain extent? Absolutely. We live in a world where we have to be realistic. The United States is the premier world power and we’re going to have to learn to live with the United States. But I think the nature of the relationship is going to change. From Canada’s perspective, we’re going to inject a lot more attention to defense, security and foreign affairs. I think that will be all to the good, but it will change things about how we deal with one another within the Five Eyes, within NATO and more broadly.

The Cipher Brief: One practical impact that we have looked at involves  intelligence sharing. Canada is in the Five Eyes intelligence sharing arrangement. What impact, if any, do you see with that going forward?

Fadden: People are going to begin to wonder about what they can share. But I would distinguish between two kinds of intelligence. The first kind, and the one that I think we will continue to share, is intelligence about threats to one another. I cannot imagine Canada ever not passing on to the United States information and intelligence that we might have about threats to the United States. I’d very much like to hope that would be the same with the U.S. vis-a-vis its allies. 

All the other kinds of intelligence – they may be very useful, and very helpful, but the world will continue to turn if there are cuts here and there. And I do think it’s going to cause everybody to think about what can be shared, and how quickly it can be shared. At the operational level, during Mr. Trump’s first term, things carried on much as they were, even though at the political level there were problems. I don’t think it’s going to be this simple this time. But as long as we share operational threat intelligence on an ongoing basis, that will maintain a bridge to our broader intelligence sharing, which I hope will be resurrected over time.

The Cipher Brief: You’ve advised prime ministers in your country. What sort of advice might you give the government in Canada now, about everything we’ve been talking about?

Fadden: The first thing I would say is, they have to take national security seriously on an ongoing basis and not just when there are crises. This means paying attention. It means developing new relationships and alliances across the board, in particular with Europe. I think Prime Minister Carney’s already started doing that, but it will mean more resources on defense, on security and on foreign affairs. And most important is to take a realistic view of our relationship with the United States. The United States is not going to go away. The United States is important to us, but I think the world is going through a rather tough time right now. A lot of people in Canada are hoping that your midterm elections will reinstitute one of the guardrails of your constitution. We shall see.

The Cipher Brief: Then let’s imagine you’re in this country, and you had 10-15 minutes in the Oval Office. What message might you bring from Canada?

Fadden: I think it would be to consider carefully their priorities, to consider the unintended consequences of what they’re trying to do and how they’re doing things. And to note that in particular with Canada – yes, I understand Mr. Trump’s fixation with tariffs, but it’s hard to argue in the world today that the import of Canadian steel and aluminum presents a threat to United States national security. So I’d ask them to rethink what they want done and how they’re doing it. I think most governments would admit that they need to shake up their bureaucracies every now and then. And I think that’s what Mr. Trump is trying to do. Our initial reaction is that it’s how he’s doing it, and the extent to which he’s doing it. 

But I think it would also be to realize that the United States’ strength is found in alliances and in allies. This is not going to help United States’ long-term interests.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

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