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The Cornered Putin Problem

Belgrade, Serbia – October 16, 2014: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Serbian President Tomislav Nikolić during the military parade “March of the victorious” in Belgrade. President Vladimir Putin of Russia arrived in Belgrade to commemorate the city’s liberation by the Red Army and Yugoslav Partisans in 1944. during World War II.
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Posted: March 14th, 2022

By The Cipher Brief

Bottom Line:  As the Russian invasion of Ukraine presses into its third week, Western leaders continue to focus on the Russian President’s state of mind as an important indicator of what he may do as the battle in Ukraine continues.  The Russian mission in Ukraine is showing signs of desperation as The Financial Times reports that President Putin is now turning to one of the only countries left that supports him – China – with a request for military equipment. 

Russia’s uneven prosecution of the war, coupled with bracing punitive actions by the Western alliance, have created what one senior U.S. official called, “the cornered Putin problem.”  Former Canadian National Security Advisor Richard Fadden told The Cipher Brief that Putin is going to need a way out. With the campaign continuing and moving dangerously close to Poland’s border, what does U.S. Intelligence assess about Putin’s state of mind, and whether he will look for an exit in Ukraine or double down?

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