Background:
- CIA Director William Burns testified last week before the House Intelligence Committee that few in Putin’s inner circle challenge him. "I think he's far more insulated from other points of view and people who would challenge or question his views, but in my opinion, that doesn't make him crazy, but it makes them extremely difficult to deal with because of the hardening of his views over time and a narrowing of his inner circle."
- Testifying at the same House hearing, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines was asked about Putin’s announcement that he was elevating the readiness status of Russian nuclear forces. Haines said it was “very unusual” and added, “We obviously take it very seriously when he's signaling in this way.” This signaling, Haines said, suggested, “that he's attempting to deter” NATO from direct involvement in Ukraine. “That’s been his main purpose in doing so.”
- Fiona Hill, a long-time observer of President Putin and a former NSC official in the Trump Administration, was asked in a New York Times interview about Putin’s next steps, “First of all, he’s going to double and triple down on the military side of things. And he has very deliberately put his nuclear card on the table. That’s a way of playing it, right, because it certainly gets everybody thinking — whoa, he’s in a corner, what’s he going to do?” Asked how credible a nuclear threat is, Hill responded, “I think we have to take it seriously.”
- Former State Department regional medical officer and psychiatrist Dr. Kenneth Dekleva wrote in The Cipher Brief that while Putin has long been regarded as a ruthless and calculating leader, his recent statements and actions have spurred speculation that “something is off,” or that Putin is “erratic,” “different,” or has “gone off the rails.” But in addition to a psychological or medical issue, Dekleva wrote, he and his inner circle may be the victims of a massive intelligence failure.
- Senator Marco Rubio told CNN what U.S. intelligence is trying to discern about President Putin’s demeanor, behavior, and state of mind, “We should not assume that the Vladimir Putin of 2022 is the same guy that he was 10 or five years ago. His risk calculus is very different… because he's older now and his time is running out on this earth.” Rubio said, “He views it as a historic legacy to restore greater Russia. And you can't do that unless Ukraine is something that you control and have at least a vassal state.” Concerning Putin’s well-established reputation for emotional control, Rubio observed, “…the sort of anger that you've seen is an indication that we're dealing with a different guy. And I'll tell you why that's important. It's not a curiosity,” adding, “he may be willing to take escalatory steps now that the old Vladimir Putin would not. That's important for policymakers to keep in mind. There are some real dangers here of escalation.”
The Cipher Brief tapped former CIA Chief of Central Eurasia Division, Robert Dannenberg, former CIA Station Chief Dan Hoffman and former member of CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service Steven Hall for their individual thoughts on the Russian leader’s state of mind.
The Cipher Brief: Understanding there is no clear view into what Russian President Vladimir Putin is thinking – what do you think Ukraine and the West should be prepared for – based on his actions and behaviors to date?
Dan Hoffman, Former CIA Chief of Station
He’s gone all in like he did with Grozny and Aleppo. It’s scorched earth. His plan was to subdue the Ukrainian population, decapitate the government by trying to find, fix and kill President Volodomyr Zelensky. I’m not that sanguine that there’s an off-ramp for him. Even more importantly to Putin in the near term, is his inner circle. They’re going to see that he went to brinkmanship and then he went overboard and risked everything. He went from playing chess to poker with a pair of twos. He had a lot of hubris to think he could pull this off.
The Cipher Brief: What we know about his inner circle and what is the likelihood that some of his inner circle might turn on him?
Steven Hall, Former Member of Senior Intelligence Service, CIA
I think the dressing down of the SVR chief, Sergei Naryshkin, was an excellent example of two things. First, of Putin acting in an uncharacteristic fashion, not only to a member of the security elite, but also in the presence of his inner circle. Everybody saw that humiliation and if they didn’t see it directly, they certainly heard about it afterwards. When the people who are capable of conducting a coup against Putin are arriving at the conclusion [that Russia as we know it could disappear], then I think that dramatically increases the likelihood that they are at least considering, “Okay, do we actually have to think the unthinkable? Do we have to get rid of Putin because he just becomes so isolated and so cornered that there could be a worst-case scenario.” At some point he could say, “I’m going to use the nuclear option.” And I think when they start thinking along those lines, that increases the likelihood that they would say, “We got to do something to make this stop.”
Robert Dannenberg, Former CIA Chief of Central Eurasia Division
Though [Putin’s] speeches and actions in recent months have appeared to many as irrational and suggest he is unwell and/or mentally unstable, I argue that he is convinced of his strategic genius and is executing a plan long in the making which — in his mind —will have rebuild the world order into a bi- or multi-polar world with Russia restored to its place at the top of one of those poles, presumably alongside the US/EU and China. The decision to move again into Ukraine was not made by a madman, but rather by a leader supremely confident is his strategic vision and in the preparations for conflict made by his military, intelligence services, and the steps he took to protect Russia’s economy from the costs of the coming conflict. Many who have met Putin argue that he has changed in the past few years and describe him as being “different” than he was before. This may be true. He likely feels less need to engage in diplomatic niceties and may be engaging in more aggressive behavior as an intimidation tactic. Let’s not forget that he has ruled the world’s most powerful nuclear power for over twenty years and has made himself one of the richest men on the planet in the process. These are not necessarily indicators of a crazy man. Putin has rolled the dice. Even if there were an “off ramp” he will not take it now. His only option is escalation.
Cipher Brief Analyst and Researcher Ken Hughes contributed to this report.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
