The Cipher Brief’s Trend Line Report January 2020 is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI.
The Middle East and North Africa
Protests and violence trended in the Middle East and North Africa last quarter. Iraq and Lebanon experienced vast citizen demonstrations. Iraqi protests have occurred over the controversial Iranian-backed paramilitaries. The United States’ raid on Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi led to increased rocket attacks in Iraq, which targeted areas where U.S. soldiers and diplomats were stationed. In Israel, strikes from the Gaza strip increased since the death of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) senior commander, Baha Abu Al Ata. Protests broke out in Lebanon calling for political and economic reforms following government plans to charge a fee for WhatsApp. Despite the resignation and replacement of multiple officials, demonstrators continue to gather in opposition against the Lebanese government and of course, the killing of Iranian Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani set the US – Iranian relationship on a whole new path.
Cipher Brief Expert Perspective
Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017. As NIM-I, he was the principal Intelligence Community (IC) official responsible for overseeing all aspects of national intelligence policy and activities related to Iran, to include IC engagement on Iran issues with senior policy makers in the National Security Council and the Department of State.
"From North Africa to Iran, the region continued to experience widespread protests driven by deep dissatisfaction over corruption, sectarianism, and failed governance. Governments dealing with the unrest appear generally unwilling to make the broad changes which would satisfy protestors, in part because the unrest has yet to seriously threaten established power centers," said Roule. "Continued unrest remains highly likely with a likelihood for increased violence, especially in Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran. The threat against the U.S. presence in Iraq remains high."
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
"Iran remains the single most disruptive regional actor although its most significant on-the-ground operations in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen receive little media coverage. US forces in Iraq came under increased mortar and rocket fire. Iran continued to seek sanctions relief using increasingly bellicose rhetoric and actions aimed at pressuring the international community to offer sanctions relief. Tehran and its proxies continue to claim a desire to punish the United States over the U.S. killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militant Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis, particularly as part of a campaign which aims to curtail the U.S. presence in Iraq."
"The United States’ raid which ended in the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi inflicted a significant blow against ISIS but appears to have had only a limited impact on ISIS operations. In Israel, strikes from the Gaza strip have increased since the death of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) senior commander, Baha Abu Al Ata," said Roule.
OSINT Global Headlines
Iraq: Attacks Against Bases with U.S. Soldiers Rise
- October 26: A U.S. military raid in Syria killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. An Islamic State spokesman warned the United States to “beware vengeance [against] their nation and their brethren of infidels and apostates.” CNN Reuters
- November 8: The Qayyarah West Airfield base in Iraq was attacked with 31 rockets. The base contained U.S. soldiers, although no injuries were reported. NPR
- December 3: The al-Asad base in the Western Anbar province was attacked with 122-mm rockets. “That’s a bit different than one or two rockets that are harassing fire.” said a U.S. military official, referring to rockets regularly launched into Baghdad’s Green Zone, where the American Embassy is located. NPR
- December 9: Rockets were fired near a State Department-run security compound in Iraq. At least five Iraqi counterterrorism forces were wounded. A U.S. senior military official said, “I think that attack is a part of a broader trend that is attacking the U.S. and coalition presence in Iraq, as opposed to the episodic harassing fire that we’ve become used to.” NPR
- December 12: Rockets struck Baghdad’s international airport compound, but there were no casualties reported. U.S. officials commented the attacks have escalated both in frequency and potential lethality. NPR
- December 16:S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper expressed his “concern about the optics in attacks on bases in Iraq where U.S. troops and material might be” in a call with ongoing Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi. Al Jazeera
- January 3: The U.S. targeting and killing of Iranian Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani by a drone strike in Baghdad prompted a series of seemingly escalatory statements and actions throughout the Middle East. The Cipher Brief
Israel: Escalated Attacks Following the Death of Baha Abu al-Ata
- November 5: Israeli forces launched dual assassination attempts on Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leadership in both Palestine and Syria. BBC
- November 12: Israeli forces killed Baha Abu al-Ata in targeted strikes. A subsequent Israeli attack killed two Palestinian citizens and injured ten in a strike against another PIJ leader. BBC
- November 12-13: Pro-Palestinian forces fired nearly 400 rockets toward Israel from the Gaza strip. Hamas said Israel bore “full responsibility for the consequences of this escalation” and warned that the killings would “not pass without punishment. BBC
- November 14: An unofficial ceasefire was agreed upon with Egypt serving as a mediator. Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that “quiet will be answered with quiet.” Al Jazeera BBC
- November 15: Israel resumed strikes on targets linked to the Islamic Jihad militant group in Gaza after members of the PIJ fired rockets into Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett warned Gaza militants “A terrorist who tries to harm Israeli citizens will not be able to sleep soundly, not in his home and not in his bed and not in any hiding place.” Associated Press
- December 19: PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al-Nakhalad stated his organization will join forces in the next round of fighting between Israel and Hamas. Jerusalem Post
Lebanon: Anti-Government Protests Persist throughout First Quarter
- October 20: Demonstrators indicated economic reforms will not be enough to dismantle the protests. “[The politicians] are not giving us anything, they took everything, and we don't have anything here. Since 2005 they have been promising us, but then nothing happened,” a protestor in Beirut said. Al Jazeera Financial Times
- November 17: A consensus by multiple political parties to nominate former Finance Minister Mohammad Safadi as the new prime minister was met with protests, leading him to withdraw his candidacy. Al Jazeera The New York Times
- December 20: Former Education Minister Hassan Diab was tasked by Lebanese President Michel Aoun with forming Lebanon’s new government. The appointment of Diab failed to quell protests as hundreds of civilians gathered in Tripoli and Beirut to oppose his appointment. Al Jazeera The Guardian
The Americas
Protests and cartel violence trended in the Americas last quarter with Bolivia and Chile experiencing vast demonstrations. Bolivian protests over election fraud eventually forced out President Evo Morales, who ultimately sought exile in Argentina, while protests in Chile forced the government to cancel its hosting of the climate summit. Cartels in Mexico continued on a rampage of violence, most notably killing several members of an American family near the border. In response, President Donald Trump considered naming Mexican cartels terrorist organizations before Attorney General William Barr met with Mexico’s president.
OSINT Global Headlines
Bolivia: Protests and Voting Irregularities Force Out President
- October 23: Bolivian President Evo Morales stated he had won the presidential election, despite the questionable vote filled with irregularities and violent clashes. The Guardian The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- October 26: Thousands protested in La Paz following the announcement that Morales will serve a fourth term. BBC The New York Times
- October 30: Bolivian Foreign Minister Diego Mary announced the Organization of American States will begin a “binding” audit. ABC News Reuters The Washington Post
- November 11: Morales resigned after the Organization of American States, which had conducted an audit of the October presidential vote, said it found “clear manipulations” and that the results should be annulled. Morales offered to hold new elections but resigned shortly after army chief urged him to step down as president. BBC Bloomberg NBC News The Washington Post
- November 12: Morales accepted Mexico’s asylum offer after resigning the presidency. Morales was granted asylum “for humanitarian reasons and in light of the urgent situation Bolivia is facing,” Mexico’s foreign minister said. Morales resigned his post after irregularities were found in the election process. BBC The Guardian The New York Times
- November 13: Senator Jeanine Anez Chavez named herself president and addressed the country, urging citizens to return to normalcy and vowing “reconstructed democracy.” CNN The New York Times
- November 20: Anez announced she would send a bill to congress requesting a new election. The bill would annul the results of the October 20 elections. DW The New York Times
- November 23: Anez appointed Walter Oscar Serrate Cuellar as Bolivia’s ambassador to the United States. BBC
- December 5: A report by the Organization of American States showed “overwhelming evidence” of vote rigging in the October election in favor of former President Evo Morales. The Guardian Reuters
- December 12: Morales was granted refugee status in Argentina. Al Jazeera The Guardian The New York Times
- December 18: An arrest warrant was issued for Morales as the interim government accused the former president of provoking unrest in the country after his ouster from government. Al Jazeera
Chile: Protests Cause Unrest Forcing Government to Abandon Hosting Climate Summit
- October 21: Thousands continued to protest high living costs and an increase in transit fare after a violent weekend of looting, arson, and clashes with security forces that killed 11 people, injured 200, and saw approximately 1,500 detained. Bloomberg The New York Times NPR The Washington Post
- October 25: President Sebastian Pinera introduced legislation to Congress aimed at quelling protests, but the move was not enough as protests continued as protestors clashed with police in Santiago. Reuters
- October 28: Protests continued in Chile the day after Pinera announced he would change eight cabinet members. Reuters
- October 30: Chile withdrew as the host of the November Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and the COP25 international climate change conference, citing the need to focus on restoring law and order. Bloomberg CBS News The Guardian The New York Times Reuters The Wall Street Journal
- November 7: Pinera announced a wave of new measures to strengthen security and impose greater penalties as the riots and protests continue into their third week. DW Reuters
- November 15: Chile announced it would hold a referendum in April. The referendum will ask voters if they support forming a new constitution and if current officials should serve on the constitutional commission. Al Jazeera The Guardian The New York Times
- November 19: Legislators introduced a motion to begin impeachment of Pinera “due to the grave, repeated, generalized, and systematic violations of the fundamental rights of people carried out by agents of the state in the past month.” Al Jazeera
- December 14: The United Nations released a report stating Chilean police used unnecessary force in response to the demonstrations. DW The New York Times
Mexico: Cartel Violence Continues as United States Considers Terrorist Designation
- October 18: Sinaloa cartel gunmen forced a patrol of Mexican forces to release Ovidio Guzman Lopez, son of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, after his recent capture. BBC News The Independent The New York Times
- November 5: Three women and six children were killed in an attack by a suspected drug cartel gunman while driving in northern Mexico. BBC News NBC News The Washington Post
- November 26: President Donald Trump said in an interview that he is planning to designate drug cartels in Mexico as terrorist organizations. “I will be designating the cartels,” Trump said. Bloomberg The New York Times
- December 5: Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he had a “good meeting” with U.S. Attorney General William Barr. The Los Angeles Times Reuters
Western Europe
The United Kingdom served as the epicenter for Western European developments as the British Isle held a snap general election and hosted the meetings around NATO's 70th Anniversary. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson failing to pass a Brexit deal by the October 31 deadline, parliament voted on October 29 and 30 to hold a snap general election on December 12. Promising to push Britain’s European Union departure, Johnson’s Conservative Party won 365 of the 650 parliamentary seats. The conservative victory resulted in a small number of protests by leftists but was widely accepted by most Brits. Furthermore, the United Kingdom hosted the 70th NATO Anniversary meetings as diplomatic tensions emanating from allies Turkey and France dominated the conference’s conversation. Ankara, throughout the quarter, continued to move away from the interests of the alliance, most notably in Turkey’s incursion into Northern Syria and efforts to designate Kurdish fighters as a terrorist organization. French President Emmanuel Macron added to NATO insecurity, claiming the alliance is experiencing “brain death” in response the United States and European allies’ failure to cooperate on the Ankara issue.
Cipher Brief Expert Perspective
Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Fishwick also spent three years on a secondment to UK Customs, specialising in international drug enforcement and tax evasion issues.
Nick Fishwick, Former Senior Member, British Foreign Office
“From the British perspective the clear Conservative victory in the December 10 election means that the U.K. will definitely leave the European Union. Boris Johnson is a strong Atlanticist who will try to maintain close relations with European partners, as over Iran; his defeated opponent, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, had a long record of opposition to the US, NATO, Israel and the British nuclear deterrent. So, Mr. Johnson’s victory means a welcome continuity in British security policy.There have been some discouraging signs coming out of Ankara, but I would advise against viewing developments too bleakly. It has long been clear that President Erdogan has values that differ from those of most Americans and Europeans, but don’t underestimate how closely and deeply linked much of Turkish society, economy and culture remain to the west. Turkey will always see Kurdish independence as a red line and will always flirt with regional powers we deeply distrust. But it should remain a vital NATO partner.”
OSINT Global Headlines
United Kingdom: Snap General Election Results in Conservative Victory
- October 29-30: The British parliament passed the Early Parliamentary General Election Act of 2019 with a 438-20 vote in favor of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s motion. The snap election was scheduled for December 12 with all 650 parliamentary seats up for reelection. The Guardian The New York Times
- November 19: Prime Minister Boris Johnson and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn competed in the first election debate. Associated Press
- November 29: Johnson suggested President Trump not get involved in the British election ahead of the NATO summit to be held in London the following week. Reuters
- December 12-13: The United Kingdom held its general election with 65 million citizens eligible to vote for all 650 seats in the British parliament. Johnson’s Conservative Party won 365 seats while opposition leader Corbyn’s Liberal Democrats claimed 203 parliamentary positions. Corbyn announced he would be stepping down as the Labor Party leader following the substantial defeat. BBC NBC News NPR The New York Times
- December 14: Anti-government protests erupted across London following the Conservative Party’s victory. Prime Minister Johnson plans to push Brexit through after regaining conservative control of the Parliament. BBC The Guardian
United Kingdom: France, Turkey Cause Diplomatic Unrest ahead of 70th NATO Anniversary meetings in London
- October 8-9: Turkey begins an offensive into Northern Syria, aiming to establish a zone of control to resettle Syrian refugees back in their home country. President Trump and NATO condemned the actions as Ankara emphasized the threats posed by Kurdish forces. BBC France 24
- November 7: French President Macron stated he believes NATO is experiencing “brain death,” concerned over the lack of cooperation between the United States and European allies regarding Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria. DW Euro News France 24 RFE/RL
- November 19: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced he would be meeting with French President Macron following Macron’s criticisms of the alliance. The best way to address any differences “is to sit down and discuss them and to fully understand the messages and the motivations,” Stoltenberg stated ahead of the meeting. DW
- November 26: Ankara announced Turkey will not allow consensus over Baltic security issues within NATO until other members of the alliance recognize Kurdish fighters as terrorists. DW Reuters
- December 2-5: NATO leaders met in London for meetings around the 70th Anniversary of NATO. Turkey’s President Erdogan said allies must back Ankara’s efforts in Syria, while France, Germany, the United States, and Britain reinforced the notion that no consensus has been reached on the issue. France 24 The New York Times RFE/RL Reuters
- December 8: Moscow’s defense minister said Russian-NATO relations are “degrading every day” following the conclusion of the NATO meetings in London. NATO leaders at the London meetings reinforced their commitment to mutual defense, naming Russia as a security threat to the alliance. RFE/RL
- December 12: The United States Senate passed a resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide, in another blow to Turkey’s standing within NATO. The legislation defined the Turkish campaign as, “the killing of an estimated 1,500,000 Armenians by the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1923.” Ankara maintains its actions do not constitute genocide. A Turkish official stated the congressional resolution is potentially damaging to Turkish-American relations. CNN France 24 The New York Times
Central and Eastern Europe
Russia remained the dominant force influencing Central and Eastern European events this quarter. Despite U.S. resistance, Moscow is well on its way to completing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — a system of offshore natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany. Russia and Ukraine made monumental steps toward normalizing relations in December when the leaders of the two countries met with the leaders of France and Germany in the Normandy format, agreeing to implement a “full and comprehensive” ceasefire and exchange all prisoners by year’s end. With the United States’ withdrawal from Syria, Turkey and Russia agreed to share control of the country’s northeastern region.
Cipher Brief Expert Perspective
Paul Kolbe is Director of The Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Prior to this, Kolbe led BP’s Global Intelligence and Analysis team supporting threat warning, risk mitigation, and crisis response. Prior to joining BP, Kolbe served 25 years as an operations officer in the CIA. He was a member of the Senior Intelligence Service, and is a recipient of the Intelligence Medal of Merit and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Kolbe served in Russia, the Balkans, Indonesia, East Germany, Zimbabwe, and Austria.
Paul Kolbe, Director, Intelligence Project, Harvard University's Belfer Center
"With the United States distracted by the impeachment of President Trump and the approaching 2020 Presidential Primaries, and Europe looking inward with Brexit, Russia continues its steady and patient strategy of exploiting wedge issues to advance its agenda in Eastern and Central Europe. On the economic front, the construction of the Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream gas pipelines highlights Russia's ability to advance dual-use energy projects which promise long running revenue streams, but also sets allies against each other. In Ukraine, Moldova, and increasingly in the Balkans, Russia retains the ability to dial violence up or down to suit the needs of the moment. Russia's recent political success in forging an alliance of convenience with Turkey in spite of fundamental differences must be mostly chalked up to U.S. and European inconsistency and missteps over Syria, Kurdish issues and refugees. Finally, Russia will continue its practice of directly and indirectly supporting extremist political agendas on the left and right, amplifying noise, discord and disunity. Absent a coherent and consistent campaign by the U.S and its allies to counter these activities, Russia will continue to enjoy success in advancing its western flank agenda."
Russia: Moscow Proceeds with Nord Stream 2 Project Despite U.S. Resistance
- October 3: Moscow announced it is ready to bypass Denmark and consider alternative routes for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, if Denmark refuses to approve construction in Danish territory. Reuters
- October 30: Denmark granted Russia a permit to construct a section of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline on the Danish continental shelf southeast of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea. Associated Press The Washington Post
- November 8: Poland’s anti-monopoly authority imposed a $44 million fine on one of the five European firms responsible for financing the project. Reuters
- December 10: Congress passed a bill sanctioning companies involved in the Russian-sponsored gas pipelines: the Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. RFE/RL
- December 21: AllSeas Group SA, a company that operates ships laying sections of the German-Russian pipeline, said it would halt operations on the Nord Stream 2 after President Trump approved sanctions targeting the project. The Kremlin stated the sanctions will not impede completion of the pipeline. Associated Press Bloomberg Reuters
- December 26: Russia's energy minister says, despite U.S. sanctions, Moscow will proceed to finish the Baltic Sea pipeline as Germany is dependent on imports for 92 percent of its gas needs. DW Reuters
Turkey: Ankara Increases Operations in Syria
- October 5: Turkey reinforced army units at the Syrian border hours after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared intent to launch a cross-border military operation against Kurdish militants in northeast Syria. Bloomberg Reuters
- October 9: Turkey launched offensive ground assaults and airstrikes against Kurdish fighters in northern Syria after U.S. troops withdrew from the area. CBS News The New York Times
- October 22: Russian and Turkish leaders made a deal to share control of Syria's northeast territory, allowing Turkey to maintain control of areas it pushed into launching its offensive into Syria earlier in October and giving Russian and Syrian troops to control the rest of the border. Presidents Putin and Erdogan also agreed that their troops will conduct joint patrols of the border. CBC The New York Times
- November 1: Turkey and Russia held their first round of joint patrols in Syria as part of a deal that forced Kurdish forces away from Turkey's border. Military Times Reuters
- December 23: President Erdogan urged Russia to stop the attacks in Syria's northwestern Idlib province saying Turkey could not handle the influx of refugees being forced to flee the Russian strikes. Al Jazeera CNN
Ukraine: Kiev and Moscow Strive to Normalize Relations
- October 1: President Volodymyr Zelensky and pro-Russia separatists signed an agreement accepting the Steinmeier Formula, a procedure for implementing the Minsk “accords,” and Putin’s main precondition to holding a summit in the “Normandy” format. Ukraine promised local elections will be held in separatist-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine and separatist leaders pledged to withdraw troops from two locations in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Bloomberg DW RFE/RL
- October 31: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg demanded that Russia end its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine and called on it to withdraw all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory and return three Ukrainian Navy vessels that were seized in the Kerch Strait off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula last year. Kyiv Post RFE/RL
- November 15: The leaders of France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine announced a meeting between the leaders of the four countries in the Normandy format to be held in Paris on December 9 in an attempt to advance efforts for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The New York Times Reuters
- December 9: Russian leader Vladimir Putin met Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky met in Paris to discuss measures to end conflict in the eastern Ukraine. The meeting resulting in the two countries agreeing to implement a “full and comprehensive” ceasefire and exchange all prisoners by the end of 2019. BBC CNBC
- December 18: Representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the separatists failed to reach an “all for all” prisoner exchange agreement after several hours of tense talks in Minsk following a tentative agreement reached during Ukraine peace talks in Paris last week. Zelensky expected all 72 Ukrainian prisoners held by the separatists to return home before the year's end. Miami Herald Ukraine Today
- December 23: Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists agreed to a prisoner exchange to take place by the end of the year. Al Jazeera
Asia
News around China continued to dominate the region last quarter along with the United States degrading relationship with North Korea and the resumption of peace talks in Afghanistan. China commissioned its first domestically built aircraft carrier while Western nations seem to be following the United States’ lead by diminishing Huawei’s role in 5G development. Additionally, the United States agreed to a trade deal with China and put the Chinese owned TikTok app under a national security review. The situation remains complex in Afghanistan as Zalmay Khalilzad restarted peace talks with the Taliban in the midst of a document dump outlining American missteps. Lastly, North Korea resumed development and testing of missile technologies, as their relationship with the United States appeared to deteriorate.
Cipher Brief Expert Perspective
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani is former Special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea and the U.S. Representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization (KEDO), as well as former CIA director of East Asia Operations. He later served as the Associate Director of National Intelligence and Mission Manager for North Korea and the Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center, while also serving as a Special Adviser to the Director of National Intelligence.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Director, National Counterproliferation Center
"Despite the progress made with China on trade issues, with the January 15 signing of the "phase one" trade deal with China, and the removal of China from the list of currency manipulating countries, there remains concern that implementation of this partial trade agreement will be difficult to monitor, with a significant number of ongoing tariffs still operative until a "phase two" agreement, which will require even more difficult negotiations, is reached. In addition to ongoing trade dispute with China, other issues are affecting bilateral relations, to include: Banning Huawei from the U.S., China's militarization of islands in the South China Sea, intellectual property theft, restricted market access, the harsh treatment of Uighurs in Xinjiang, developments in Hong Kong, recent election in Taiwan, lack of transparency on China's military modernization program and a myriad of other irritants affecting relations. These and other issues will require even greater effort on the part of Beijing and Washington to resolve or at least come to some agreement on how these issues will be dealt with, so as to not to contribute to a further deterioration of bilateral relations, which are at a low point."
"North Korea's leader, Kim Jung Un, at the December Plenum of the Party Congress, made it clear that the North will resume its nuclear and missile programs, while continuing to focus on economic development," said DeTrani. "Kim did, however, leave the door open for continued negotiations with the U.S., noting that although his relationship with President Trump was still friendly, North Korea demanded that the U.S. be more responsive to the North and change its calculus for negotiations, if they expect negotiations to resume. Pyongyang has taken this more negative approach since the failure of the Hanoi Summit, when the North proposed the suspension of activities at their Yongbyan nuclear facility, in return for the lifting of sanctions. The Summit ended abruptly when the U.S. would not agree to this proposal and countered with a more comprehensive suspension of all nuclear and missile programs, to include the North's uranium enrichment program. Since that failed Summit, and a subsequent brief DMZ meeting of Trump and Kim and a meeting in Stockholm between the lead negotiators from the U.S. and North Korea, which also ended in failure, North Korea has launched over a dozen sophisticated short range ballistic missiles, while criticizing the U.S. and threatening to cease negotiations if the U.S. doesn't comply with their demand. It's likely that we'll have at least one working level meeting with the North in 2020. This would permit both sides to determine if continued denuclearization talks are still viable. Although China and Russia want North Korea to denuclearize, they believe the U.S. should be more flexible on the issue of sanction relief for the North, to reciprocate for positive denuclearization moves from the North."
Afghanistan: Peace Talks Resume and United States Mulls Further Troop Drawdown
- October 5: Taliban officials met with American envoy Zalmay Khalilzad in Pakistan for the first time since President Donald Trump canceled a meeting scheduled for Camp David last month. The New York Times TIME The Washington Post
- October 21: The United States reduced its troop level by 2,000 soldiers over the last year the commander of U.S. and NATO forces said. “Unbeknownst to the public as part of our optimization … we reduced our authorized strength by 2,000 here,” the general said. Currently, 13,000 remaining troops are deployed in Afghanistan. The Washington Post
- October 29: Afghanistan’s National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib said the Taliban must declare a one-month ceasefire before the start of peace talks to prove that the Taliban leaders have control over the group. Ava Press Dawn The New York Times
- December 8: The Washington Post released a trove of U.S. government documents outlining mistakes and cover-ups concerning the conflict in Afghanistan. The Washington Post
- December 11: The Taliban attacked a medical facility outside the southern portion of Bagram Airfield killing two people and wounding at least 73. A car bomb penetrated the medical facility and the ensuing attack lasted 12 hours. The perimeter of the base was not breached. Al Jazeera Military Times The New York Times
- December 16: Senator Lindsey Graham said U.S. troops could be reduced to 8,600 beginning after the new year. Military Times
- December 19:S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said he would like to see a drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan to focus on other missions. “I would like to go down to a lower number because I want to either bring those troops home, so they can refit and retrain for other missions or/and be redeployed to the Indo-Pacific to face off our greatest challenge in terms of the great power competition that’s vis-a-vis China,” Esper said. Military Times
China: Controversy Continues over Huawei and the Development of 5G
- November 6: The United States stated it worries China could use its edge in 5G wireless technology to create “two different internets,” according to the U.S. FCC chairman. The end result being a U.S.-China split with a highly censored version created by the Chinese. South China Morning Post
- November 20: The Commerce Department announced that it has eased some export restrictions that will allow some U.S. suppliers to resume shipping to Huawei. The Wall Street Journal
- December 3: At least eight Russian universities and research centers have announced partnership with Huawei in the last six months as the Chinese tech company looks to replace lost U.S. partnerships. South China Morning Post
- December 8: The Chinese government has ordered all foreign computer equipment to be removed from government offices within three years. The move is similar to U.S. action to rid the government of Chinese equipment and the U.S. ban on Huawei. The Guardian
- December 11: Telefonica Deutschland announced it will partner with Huawei and Nokia to build 5G in Germany pending security certification. DW South China Morning Post
- December 16: Germany says security concerns will determine whether or not to allow Huawei to be part of its 5G infrastructure. Bloomberg
- December 19: Spanish telecommunication firm Telefonica announced it will reduce its purchases from Huawei citing concerns over Chinese espionage. Huawei purchases will continue to decrease “until they disappear around 2024.” Japan Times
China: First Domestically Built Aircraft Carrier Put into Service and Changes Made to SCS Training
- October 29: Satellite imagery of the Jiangnan Shipyard shows China’s production of its Type 002 class aircraft carrier. China expects to have five or six large carriers in service by 2030. Business Insider Economic Times
- November 17: China sailed a carrier group, including the new Type 002, through the Strait of Taiwan. DW Navy Times Japan Times
- December 16: Chinese state media reports Beijing has altered its South China Sea training from “passive to proactive” to prepare for “unexpected confrontations.” South China Morning Post
- December 17: China commissioned the Shandongi in a ceremony at a Chinese naval base in Sanya on the southern island of Hainan. Asia Times CNA The Japan Times The New York Times Nikkei Asian Review South China Morning Post
- December 19: Beijing’s Naval and Merchant Ships magazine reported that China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier would be used in tandem with the Soviet era carrier for military operations concerning Taiwan. International Business Times South China Morning Post
China: TikTok Undergoes Security Review in the United States
- November 4: TikTok, a Chinese owned platform, has come under a national security review. Military Times
- December 16: In response to the national security review a TikTok spokesperson said that the company “has made clear that we have no higher priority than earning the trust of users and regulators in the U.S. Part of that effort includes working with Congress.” CNBC
- December 23: The U.S. Navy directed its personnel to delete the TikTok app from government supplied devices. The decision was based on “national security assessments.” USA Today
China: Phase One Trade Deal Agreed to with the United States
- October 12: President Donald Trump said he hoped a phase one deal would be finalized in November. CNN NPR South China Morning Post The Wall Street Journal
- November 6: French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the agreement to several trade deals in Beijing worth $15 billion that cover aeronautics, energy, and agriculture. DW France 24 South China Morning Post
- December 8: Chinese Exports fell in November, reaching 12 months of decline. Exports were down slightly more than 1 percent from last year, and exports to the United States fell 23 percent. BBC
- December 12: President Donald Trump approved the terms of a trade deal between the United States and China that will end some tariffs on China and increase China’s purchase of U.S. agricultural products. BBC The Wall Street Journal
- December 14: The U.S.-China trade deal is expected to be signed in early January. “This is totally done. Absolutely,” the U.S. trade representative said. CNBC The Wall Street Journal
China: Hong Kong Protests Continue, Reaching Six Months of Unrest
- October 23: Hong Kong formally withdrew the controversial extradition bill that sparked the protests. BBC Channel News Asia CNBC TIME
- October 24: Vice President Mike Pence criticized U.S. businesses and the NBA for failing to speak against the Chinese government regarding protests in Hong Kong. Foreign Policy NPR USA Today
- October 31: China released a plan to “safeguard national security” concerning the protests in Hong Kong. The plan was constructed during a four-day meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee. The New York Times South China Morning Post
- November 19: The U.S. Senate passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. The support would come in the form of sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials who commit human rights abuses during the protests. The New York Times
- November 21: China threatens to enact countermeasures against the United States if President Trump does not veto the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Al Jazeera CNN South China Morning Post
- November 25: Pro-democracy candidates made large gains in District Council elections. Public broadcasting called the election a “staggering victory for the pro-democracy camp.” CNN
- December 8: About 800,000 protesters took to the streets as the protests reach six months. Al Jazeera DW South China Morning Post
North Korea: Tensions Persist with the United States as Missile Development Continues
- October 10: North Korea’s Foreign Ministry released a statement warning that nuclear testing and long-range missile tests could resume. Al Jazeera The Hill
- October 21: China and South Korea agreed to a joint effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. “China’s constructive role, along with South Korea’s efforts, is crucial for the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and the establishment of a permanent peace,” South Korea’s Defense Ministry said. South China Morning Post
- October 26: North Korea said it is growing impatient with the United States’ recent diplomatic actions on nuclear talks and set an end-of-the-year deadline to reach an agreement. The Guardian Japan Times TIME
- November 13: The North Korean government warned the United States that planned exercises with the South Korean military would damage its relationship. The U.S. and South Korean militaries routinely conduct joint exercises. Al Jazeera The Hill
- November 17: Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announced that joint exercises with South Korea will be cancelled. Esper said the cancellation was not a concession to North Korea, but rather a “decision as an act of goodwill to contribute to an environment conducive to diplomacy and the advancement of peace.” NBC News The Washington Post
- November 18: North Korea’s Foreign Ministry adviser Kim Kye Gwan released a statement saying that North Korea does not want to hold “useless” meetings with the United States. The statement comes a day after President Donald Trump posted a tweet directed toward Kim Jung Un saying “see you soon” suggesting another potential U.S.-North Korea summit. ABC News Al Jazeera CNN Global News
- November 21: Pyongyang announced that Kim Jung Un will not be attending the ASEAN Summit, saying his attendance would be “pointless.” Korea Times Reuters
- November 25: An artillery drill ordered by Kim Jung Un occurred on the west coast of North and South Korea. The drill took place while Kim was inspecting a military unit on Changrin Islet. The New York Times Stars and Stripes
- December 1: North Korea launched two rockets from Yonpo, a city on its east coast, according to South Korea. The rockets traveled approximately 236 miles before splashing into waters between North Korea and Japan. Military Times Stars and Stripes
- December 7: North Korea announced a “very important test.” Analysts said North Korea likely conducted a ground-based test of an engine for a ballistic missile. BBC DW The New York Times
- December 14: North Korea announced it had conducted a “crucial test” for nuclear deterrence, however it was unclear as to what the test was. BBC The Washington Post
- December 23: Imagery reveals the construction of a long-range missile construction facility possibly responsible for developing mobile missile launchers. ABC News The Hill
Sub-Saharan Africa
Last quarter, Sub-Saharan Africa saw a rising Jihadist movement in the Northwest, continued asymmetric violence in the Congo, and continued conflict in the Sudanese region between government forces and rebels. In Central-Northwestern Africa, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger saw persistent Islamic State attacks, with terrorist-led violence killing over 180 since November. The Democratic Republic of Congo was able to successfully combat the spread of Ebola with the assistance of the World Health Organization; however, rebel violence continued to threaten eradication of the disease. Members of a rebel group killed four World Health Organization workers in Eastern Congo while they attempted to contain the Ebola outbreak. In Sudan and South Sudan, civil conflict and political unrest continued. In Sudan, the two leading political factions made progress on peace accords, however South Sudan witnessed increased violence as the formation of a unity government was delayed.
OSINT Global Headlines
Central-Northwest Africa: Continued Rise of Jihadist Extremism
- November 2: Islamic State attack in northern Mali kills 53 soldiers and one civilian. Al Jazeera BBC The New York Times
- November 6: Islamist insurgents ambush three busses transporting mine workers in eastern Burkina Faso, killing 37 civilians and injuring 60 others. BBC CNBC Reuters
- November 18: Islamic State attack on a patrol convoy in the Gao region of Mali kills 24 soldiers and wounds 29 others. BBC Reuters
- December 11: An ambush on an army outpost in western Niger by Islamic militants kills 71 soldiers. Associated Press
Democratic Republic of Congo: Ebola Rates Fall While Violence Against Health Providers Increases
- October 10: The executive director of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program states that the Ebola crisis has been “squeezed into a much smaller geographical area.” Al Jazeera
- November 12: The European Commission approves an Ebola vaccine to be administered by the World Health Organization in the area of concern. VOA News
- November 13: The World Health Organization says armed groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo are impeding progress in the fight against Ebola, especially in former hotspots that are at risk for reintroduction if health workers are unable to access them due to security concerns. VOA News
- November 28: Four World Health Organization workers are killed in an attack by a rebel group in eastern Congo while working to contain the current Ebola outbreak in the region. UPI UN News
Sudan: Transitional Government and Revolutionary Front Peace Talks Make Progress
- October 17: The Sudan Transitional Government (STG) announces a ceasefire following the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) withdrawal from the talks as a confidence building measure. Gulf News
- October 21: The STG agrees to allow humanitarian aid to the regions represented by the SRF (South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur) for the first time in 8 years. Reuters
- November 29: The STG fulfilled two major demands of the SRF, including overturning the criminalization of certain women’s clothing and the consumption of alcohol, as well as disbanding the parting of former president al-Bashir. Egypt Independent TIME
South Sudan: Violence Increases as Unity Government is Delayed
- November 7: South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar meet to resolve outstanding barriers to the formation of a unity government. Both sides agreed to delay the unity government until both sides meet all stipulations. Reuters
- November 25: The United States recalls its ambassador from South Sudan over concerns regarding the delay in implementing the negotiated peace deal. Reuters VOA News
- December 6: The United Nations deploys troops to quell violence that left 75 dead and over 100 injured in the northern Lakes region of South Sudan. The Guardian
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