Despite territorial losses to its self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq, ISIS remains committed to spreading its ideological message, harsh rule, and terrorist tactics to new outposts.
“This phenomenon is probably because committing terrorist operations abroad is embedded in the organization’s DNA,” wrote counterterrorist analyst Aki Peritz in The Cipher Brief last week. “In this respect, the Islamic State’s global ambitions are similar to their largest competitor for the worldwide jihad, al Qaeda,” he continued.
At this juncture, however, it appears as though ISIS has supplanted al Qaeda as the face of the global jihadi movement.
“ISIS has some competitive advantages over al Qaeda that make it currently more dangerous to American interests and security… including the powerful imagery of the Islamic Caliphate battling the forces of tyranny and corruption in the fires of the end-times and a mastery of online social media platforms to deliver its messages and establish its global brand,” explained Dr. Michael W.S. Ryan, a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. “ISIS has also exceeded al Qaeda in its mastery of Islamic religious apologetics,” he added.
ISIS’ ascension has often been linked to its robust social media capabilities that enable it to reach individuals in all locals. While “the world has witnessed the spread of al Qaeda affiliates for years… the global reach of the Islamic State’s message, however, means that its affiliates have spread much faster and have encouraged extreme levels of indiscriminate violence along the way,” wrote Jack Berger of The Soufan Group.
Along with its aptitude for social media, ISIS’ technological drive is what separates it from the rest of the terrorist pack. Assistant Attorney General for National Security, John Carlin, recently stated that ISIS is “actively attempting” to acquire destructive cyber capabilities. Previously, ISIS purchased personal information stolen via cyber means and published this information on social media, urging its followers to target those individuals. Achieving further cyber capabilities could present a new kind of – and possibly much more lethal –threat to the U.S. homeland.
Adding to ISIS’ aura is the increasing number of terrorist groups that have pledged allegiance to ISIS over the course of the past two years. Earlier this month, estimates placed the number of ISIS global affiliates at 43, up from the 34 reported four short months ago.
Some terrorist organizations, such as Boko Haram in Nigeria and certain elements of al-Shabab in Somalia, have even switched their allegiance from al Qaeda’s emir, Ayman al Zawahiri, to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, a proclamation that may signify the passing of the baton from the older generation of jihadists to the new.
Militarily, ISIS has been able to secure key strongholds in Libya and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. During the past few months, ISIS has sent several of its leaders to Libya in an effort to evade the U.S. led aerial bombardment in Syria and Iraq. This has helped ISIS’ affiliate in Libya become the group’s most lethal branch, as it regularly attacks Tunisian security forces along the Libyan-Tunisian border and has bombed several Libyan oil terminals causing severe damage the country’s oil infrastructure. ISIS’s offshoot in the Sinai also frequently conducts smaller scale attacks against Egyptian forces and remains firmly on the international radar after its bombing of a Russian airliner last fall.
And ISIS’ metastasis does not stop there. The group has worked to cultivate branches in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Somalia, West Africa, and the Caucasus.
Yet The Cipher Brief expert, Brian Jenkins, offers a glimmer of hope, pointing out that ISIS affiliates may not actually be as cohesive a network as they appear. “Thus far, the Islamic State’s terrorist campaign outside of Syria and Iraq has been decentralized, probably more symbolic than operational,” wrote Jenkins.
As the U.S. continues to focus on ousting ISIS from its headquarters, an effective counter-ISIS strategy should also emphasize disconnecting ISIS from its various affiliates outside of Syria and Iraq. Prying these groups away from ISIS will dim its appeal and help weaken its stature as the new face of global jihad.
Bennett Seftel is the Deputy Director of Editorial at The Cipher Brief.
