Hezbollah - an Iran-backed militia that controls southern Lebanon - boasts a medium-sized army and a whopping arsenal of up to 150,000 rockets and missiles. Now, as certain fronts of the Syrian civil war begin to stabilize along "de-confliction zones" sponsored by Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the possibility that Hezbollah's thousands of fighters in Syria may return to southern Lebanon and redirect their attention towards Israel has policymakers in Jerusalem worried. The Cipher Brief’s Fritz Lodge spoke with David Schenker, Director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy, about what could spark a new war between Israel and one of the most powerful sub-state actors in the world.
The Cipher Brief: What is the current balance of forces between Israel and Hezbollah along the southern Lebanese border, and how does it compare to the balance of forces that we saw before the last major conflict in 2006?
David Schenker: Well, it’s pretty similar. Hezbollah has something like a total of 15,000 active duty forces and 10,000 or so reserves. They have about 7-8,000 now stationed in Syria, and they are rotating so they’ll go there for a month and then come back. But that leaves 7-8,000 of these hardcore Hezbollah full timers on the border of Israel at any one time. But the order of battle is actually more impressive than in 2006. Hezbollah was able to continue to fire hundreds of rockets everyday into Israel for 34 days during that conflict. Since then, it has been able totally rearm and more, so the group now has 150,000 estimated rockets and missiles. These are of varying quantities and ranges and sophistications but it’s a significant number.
They have also upgraded the quality of the missiles, one of which we believe hit the train station in Haifa, killing a number of Israelis. And the rockets and missiles that have been used to target the Israeli Ministry of Defense, for example, in Tel Aviv are highly accurate, and Hezbollah has plenty of them, as well as longer ranges. So they can hit everywhere in Israel and that includes land to sea capability, which we saw during the 2006 war when a Chinese designed C-802 anti-ship missile nearly sunk the INS Hanit – an Israeli corvette that was 10 miles off the coast of Lebanon. They also now have Russian land to sea missiles that could basically prevent any ship from going into Israel in the event of a conflict.
This is a broad array of capabilities, which could not only shut down the airport, but also shut down sea lanes and cover all of Israel. However, Israel has the most advanced conventional military in the region. They are largely dependent on reserves but they have something like 130,000 active duty, of which probably one third are combat soldiers, tip of spear. My guess is, given the calm nature of relations with Egypt and Jordan, at least half of these combat troops are stationed in the north, which is the hottest border Israel has.
TCB: How worried is Israel about the Hezbollah successes?
Schenker: Israel has really worked on its counter-missile, counter-rocket technology. They have the Arrow missile defense system, which is meant to shoot down long range missiles coming in from Iran. Israel also has developed the Iron Dome to help track and destroy incoming rockets. That system is able to discern the trajectories of these incoming threats and target them when appropriate. Still, the number of missiles Hezbollah has is so enormous that there’s no capability that will provide full protection.
TCB: And what is Israel thinking when it looks at Hezbollah’s role in Syria and the development of a supply pipeline that runs from Iran through to Iraq, Syria, and onwards into Lebanon?
Schenker: There’s a number of aspects. On the one hand, Hezbollah has recruited additional troops, which they have deployed over 4 years or 5 years into Syria. They have gained valuable combat experience, developed an ability to launch offensive operations, which they never had before, and they have emerged with a larger core of battle-hardened troops. They have also developed extensive forward logistics to arm and feed their troops who are on the front lines in a foreign country. This is not a positive as far as Israel is concerned.
On the other hand, Hezbollah has lost between 1,700 and 2,000 of its soldiers in Syria, including some very experienced commanders, and you have to imagine there’s 3-4 times that number grievously wounded. So this is taxing the organization back at home in terms of morale, unity, and increased financial obligations. That’s a plus side for Israel.
Israel has three big concerns in Syria. One is the permanent establishment of the land bridge developing along the border of Iraq and Syria, which will be able to continuously move people, personnel, and weapons all the way to Lebanon. It just so happens that the Trump administration is taking some action against that – it’s unclear whether it’ll be sustained – but I think this is on the U.S. radar as a concern for U.S. interests.
Israel is also worried about Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps moving deeper into southern Syria. Until now, Iranian forces have not taken up positions along the Jordanian border. Jordan has been working with the U.S. and other allies to preserve the de-facto safe zone in the south, mowing the grass, targeting al Qaeda affiliates when they pop up, and backing moderate rebels in this area. The last thing that the Israelis and Jordanians want are the Iranians to move south to take positions along the border with Jordan.
The last concern Israel has about Hezbollah is that Hezbollah doesn’t want another full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon. Hezbollah wants the freedom of action to target Israel periodically. Right now, the group is a little preoccupied in Syria, but it would like to establish a base of operations in Syrian territory near the Golan Heights, where it can target Israel, while assuming that Israel will only retaliate against Hezbollah in Syria.
In 2006, when Hezbollah provoked the war with Israel, much of the population of southern Lebanon migrated north. They went up to Beirut and further north to other parts of Lebanon and to Syria. Within Lebanon they were welcomed by other Lebanese into their homes, provided safety and sanctuary, and hospitality. However, at this point, Shiites living in the south of Lebanon cannot flee to Syria, it’s not safe. Hezbollah has also been fighting in support of the Syrian regime, which has contributed to the death of thousands of Sunni Muslims, so I don’t think that Lebanese Shiites from the south will now be welcome in many Sunni areas of Lebanon.
TCB: When you look at Israeli leadership and you look at these concerns that they have, are they deep enough for them to want to initiate a major conflict to nip this problem in the bud or is that just too tough a nut to crack at this point?
Schenker: I visit Lebanon maybe two or three times a year and every visit for the past three years or so I’ve been asked this question, whether Israel has any interest in preemptively targeting a preoccupied Hezbollah. I think it’s a valid question but the government will have to answer to the people of Israel. While many people might support whacking Hezbollah, there is the basic fact that the last war took 34 days and cost many lives. Israeli military officials and others say that they have an operational concept, which will be a lot more effective, this could drag on for some time. And this time, it might not only cripple the economy of Israel in the north, but throughout the whole state for a prolonged period of time. Thus, I’m not sure military action holds a broad range of appeal.
I’m not sure that the vast majority of Israelis are really asking for a fight right now. There could potentially be a very heavy price to pay, and you have to remember that in the next campaign, it’s not only going to be Hezbollah rockets and missiles. Israel has promised to target all of Lebanon, including civilian infrastructure in the country, and civilian casualties will be high. Israel’s operational concept is also to put people on the ground in Lebanon, and Hezbollah says they’re going to put people on the ground in Israel. To me it’s all but certain that Hezbollah has built tunnels which enter into Israel, and that Hezbollah operatives will go behind the Israeli lines to target civilians as well as military infrastructure on Israeli territory.
TCB: What are major flashpoints that we should be looking out for? Is it the end of the war in Syria, is that the time we should be worried? What would you look out for as you watch the two sides?
Schenker: I think that involvement in Syria has been somewhat controversial for Hezbollah, it certainly has tarnished its image. Before 2006, Hassan Nasrallah was routinely polled as the most popular leader in the Arab world. It’s stunning on some levels just thinking about the fact that a Shiite leader could be the most popular leader in the predominately Sunni Arab world. However, after 2006 – and particularly since 2011 – that has all changed. Hezbollah has helped slaughter Sunni Muslims in helping the Bashar al Assad regime to remain in power next door.
After the Syrian war, Hezbollah will want to get some of its credibility back and that would require it to once again to turn attention back to Israel, to target Israel, to provoke Israel, to attack Israeli soldiers, and to end the occupation wherever that alleged occupation may be. I think that would be the time to be more concerned about Hezbollah opening a new front. They don’t want a two-front war right now. But once the Syrian campaign is wrapped up they will be free to return to their primary mission, which is to fight Israel.
In addition, there’s always the risk of miscalculation. We have seen Israel target Hezbollah assets – full shipments of strategic weapons and personnel in Syria – over the past several years, and Hezbollah has not retaliated in any significant way. This has been going on for some time but at a certain point Hezbollah may feel the need to retaliate more aggressively. If this happens and they end up killing a significant number of Israeli soldiers, this could spark the next war.
