SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE EXPERT INTERVIEW — Hours after U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump hold their first debate, Iran will choose its next president, in a decision that will almost certainly impact the course of the next U.S. administration.
Iranians will make their choice on Friday, though the choice is limited. The campaign has been tightly controlled, in terms of candidates permitted to run to replace Ebrahim Raisi, the former president who was killed in a helicopter crash last month.
The decision also comes at a critical moment for Iran, just two months after a showdown with Israel that brought the two countries to the brink of war, and as Iran’s proxies in the region do battle with Israel and – on occasion – with U.S. forces as well.
Friday’s vote will bring the first of two major leadership changes in Iran – the second being the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader and most powerful figure, who is now 85 years old. The timetable for that succession is of course unknown.
As for Friday's presidential election, Khamenei and the Iranian Guardian Council, a group of clerics closely aligned with the Supreme Leader, have approved six candidates from an initial pool of 80.
Tensions have soared in the region since the October 7 massacre carried out by Hamas in Southern Israel. Iran is a long-time supporter of Hamas, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Meanwhile, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has advanced its nuclear program to the point at which its “breakout time” – the time needed to produce a nuclear weapon – has shrunk dramatically. On the domestic front, Iran faces significant domestic dissent over economic and social issues.
Khamenei has not backed any candidate publicly, but in a speech this week called for a high voter turnout that would “silence the Islamic Republic’s enemies,” and went on to say that "one who thinks that nothing can be done without the favor of America will not manage the country well." Iranian state media reported that one of the Supreme Leader’s top aides, Yahya Rahim Safavi, urged voters to elect "a president whose views do not conflict with those of the supreme leader."
Raisi, the late president, was widely seen as a potential successor to Khamenei, and his death has heightened speculation as to the next Supreme Leader.
Iranian dissidents have called for a boycott of Friday's vote, sharing the hashtag #ElectionCircus on X, and Narges Mohammadi, the imprisoned Iranian woman who won the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize, said in a message from Tehran's Evin prison that the election would be a "sham."
This week a pair of Cipher Brief experts with deep experience on Iran – Paula Doyle and Glenn Corn – weighed in on the leadership changes in Iran and their potential impact, for Iran and an increasingly volatile region. They spoke to Cipher Brief international correspondent Ia Meurmishvili. Beyond the election, Doyle and Corn both argued for greater deterrence against Iran from the U.S. and its allies. "Iran is conducting warfare against the United States, against Israel, and it is doing so in several theaters," Doyle said. "We ought not be cute about the word war...calling it insurgency. Calling it terrorism. Calling it proxy. Calling it low-intensity. It is war. People are dying."
THE CONTEXT
- President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other senior officials died in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran on May 19, 2024.
- Iran is holding presidential elections on June 28, 2024. The Guardian Council, a panel of clerics and jurists overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has approved six candidates to run out of over 80 who applied.
- The election is the first since Mahsa Amini died while in custody of Iran’s morality police on September 16, 2022. Her death sparked mass anti-government protests.
- The U.S. State Department has said it does not expect that Iran’s presidential election will be free or fair.
- The election comes as Iran continues support for proxies across the region, including Hamas in the Gaza Strip; Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Israel is considering opening a second major front; and Yemen's Houthis, which have continued to attack commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
THE EXPERTS
The excerpt of this conversation has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.
The Cipher Brief: What do these elections mean? And are they free and fair?
Doyle: All of the candidates have been pre-approved by the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader. And because of the way the system works there, all those running for office already have sworn an oath to support the Supreme Leader's architecture – whether it (involves) foreign, domestic, environmental, cultural or religious policies. So there's not a lot of room for maneuver with any of the presidential candidates.
Don't expect any moderate voices to emerge.
The Cipher Brief: Glenn, there were 80 potential candidates before the six were selected. Can we call these “elections”?
Corn: In my opinion, no. I don't think that the people of Iran are going to have a say in who is going to be the next president. I think a very small minority of Iranians will have that decision. The Supreme Leader and his apparatus have vetted those that have been selected from the 80, that they're acceptable to some degree.
And all the reporting is that voter apathy is growing. We have a generation of Iranians who have never seen anything close to a real election. We've seen suppression of people when they try and express their views, including the use of force repeatedly. And I'm sure that the Supreme Leader wants this election to appear both to the international community and to the Iranian people as somewhat fair and free, but I don't think it's going to work. My prediction is that the turnout will remain low, the apathy will remain.
More important than the actual result of this election is what's happening around Iran right now. It's a very, very tense time. It's a very dangerous time. And for me, there’s a question: What is the Supreme Leader looking for in the next president, to message the world and the international community? Because we remain in a very tense situation and Iran has created much of that tense situation in my opinion.
The Cipher Brief: Paula, could you walk us through the Guardian Council's role in all this?
Doyle: Iran is a theocracy. The Guardian Council has only two jobs – to protect the theocracy and the Supreme Leader. So they pick people. Those 80 (candidates) were narrowed down to six that were deemed suitable to continue the tradition of current policy. And to provide the world and the Iranian people with some semblance of a free and fair election.
But you have to go down to some pretty low levels in the government to find people who are willing to try new things. That's why it's so important to look at the Mayor of Tehran, the Mayor of Mashhad, the Mayor of Tabriz. Those are areas where you find opportunities to try new things. And if they are deemed successful and within the limits of the interpretation of Sharia law, then they're allowed to roll up a little bit higher in the system.
I would add that according to UN statistics from last year, the median age in Iran is 33. What Glenn said is so important – the vast majority of voters know nothing about true democracy, a functioning economy, or merit-based opportunities. So I don't expect a high voter turnout and I don't expect much enthusiasm.
The Cipher Brief: Let's widen the scope and bring in some foreign policy. How would a possible Israeli operation in Lebanon against Hezbollah impact the elections?
Corn: Obviously that operation risks a much wider expansion of the war. The Pentagon has warned that the assessment is that the Iranians will enter that war to support Hezbollah. My own assessment is it depends on what type of operation the Israelis conduct. We shouldn't assume that it's going to be a total invasion of Lebanon. It may be a very precise operation.
We know the Israelis are under a lot of pressure to do something, because 60,000-plus Israelis (in the north) have been dislocated since October 7. They cannot go back to their homes, they cannot go back to their livelihoods. It's hurting the Israeli economy. And the government has got to do something about that.
Whether the Iranians will get involved, there is definitely concern, because Hezbollah's the number-one pawn in the axis of resistance that the Iranians have created. It's their number-one proxy. And if they fear that the Israelis are going to destroy Hezbollah, they may get involved. And then of course the question will be, What is the U.S. response and what is the international community's response?
Doyle: We have a hard time in our country defining war. It has lots of ramifications, I get that. But the sophistry around the word “war” is harmful at this point. Iran is conducting warfare against the United States, against Israel, and it is doing so in several theaters. We ought not be cute about the word war. It's hard stuff, but this is 40 years of not calling war, war. Calling it insurgency. Calling it terrorism. Calling it proxy. Calling it low-intensity. It is war. People are dying.
Corn: I agree. The Iranians are also assisting the Russians with their terrorization of Ukraine. And the Iranians have waged war against the United States and our allies around the world for a long time. They see this as a war. I believe the Russians see that they're at war with the United States. I believe we just refuse to accept that we're at war, maybe because of the way we define war, maybe it's a different type of war.
The Cipher Brief: What would change if we were to call it a war?
Doyle: Force posture would be the main thing that would have to change. And it's an election year, so not necessarily a popular (idea). But it is a discussion that has not yet taken place in a robust enough fashion in my view.
Corn: If you look at the Supreme Leader, he probably doesn't want to push the United States right now either. I think the U.S. election is probably more important for him than the presidential election in Iran in many ways. I also do not believe that (the Iranians) want an expansion of the war with Israel because there'll be serious consequences.
The Cipher Brief: Let's talk about the Supreme Leader’s succession himself. He's 85 now. What is he thinking in terms of his successor?
Doyle: One will be to continue the regime that he has established. And number two, his legacy.
The very interesting thing for people to keep in mind about Khamenei is that his religious credentials were very weak. When he was chosen, the Assembly of Experts had to rewrite the constitution because he wasn't an Ayatollah. He wasn't a Grand Ayatollah. He wasn't even a Marja. So, don't look for a highly respected Ayatollah to be on the list.
I think that one of the most likely candidates will be his number-two son, Mojtaba. Mojtaba is a lot like his dad. He's religious, but he's not a cleric. He's an administrator and he's loyal. He is the one who oversaw the brutal crackdowns after the fraudulent elections that brought a second term with (former president Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad. And he's proud of that. It used to be that he hid behind it as, "No, these were free and fair elections." And when he got credit for having pulled it off, then of course he started bragging about it. People are also beginning to refer to him as “Ayatollah,” which tells me that they're paving the way for him to look like he has the religious credentials to replace daddy.
Corn: We have to remember that (the Supreme Leader) is going to look for someone that can defend not just his legacy, but the Shia faith. They believe they are under a constant threat. He's looking for someone that can defend Iran and his legacy from the ideological threat from the West, from the U.S. I'm sure he believes that we are actively trying to undermine the faith. And he's surrounded by other threats in the region that he's got to be concerned about. If his son is someone that he believes can do that, and is conservative enough, and strong enough, and a good enough administrator to manage that, then they'll set the precedent.
The Cipher Brief: Glenn, you raised an important question: What do you think the Supreme Leader is thinking about the U.S. elections?
Corn: My own assessment is that he sees the current administration as being better for him to deal with – that they have been more willing to make concessions. The Trump administration, when they were in the White House, it was the “maximum pressure” campaign. And the people around (Trump) have been very clear that they are going to take a much tougher line on Iran. I think Khamenei probably views the Trump administration as more dangerous for his interests.
The Cipher Brief: What about the JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal)? Do you think it has any future? Are there elements of it that can be revived?
Doyle: The Iranians have begun to enrich uranium at a faster speed than negotiations can possibly stop it. We ought to be spending a great deal more time talking about arms control at this point, because it's all but too late. The clock has run out in my view.
We have to confront Iran. We have to be willing to do things that more successfully confront its instruments of power. This means we have more work to do both in the United States and with our allies to close financial seams and loopholes that permit the Iranian regime to divert money to their nuclear program and to their proxies.
We need to do more work with partners around the world. We have to proactively interdict and destroy the sources of Iranian weapons that transit Iran to Russia, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Yemen, and Afghanistan. We can do this and we have to do it.
We need to have a full press. And that means public and private diplomacy and everything that goes with it. Back channels, front channels, that put Iran on notice that if they proceed with the final stages of their enrichment capabilities, we will have to take out their missiles. The missiles are the delivery systems that bring war to your shores, not just the warheads. And there's too much discussion about the actual nuclear program. It is too late. Now we need to focus on the missiles – and we know where the missiles are. We have to have clear conversations with Iran that we cannot wait and we will not wait. That is confrontation without war.
Corn: I agree. We are going to have to deter Iran and we are going to have to be willing to use force to stop them.
I'm sure that there are a lot of countries in the region around Iran that are thinking, OK, we're going to have to have a capability as well if the Americans don't do something to really show that they're willing to stop Iran from getting their hands on a weapon like this and then terrorizing us, using the threat of a nuclear strike to get what they want from us.
I hope that we do not let the Iranians get to the next phase. It would be a bigger problem than we have now, which is hard to imagine. And we need to keep our allies with us. We should be very careful not to isolate them or push them away, including those that know the Iranian problem very well.
The Cipher Brief: Given that the majority of the population is relatively young, is the regime at risk, when you think about the longevity of the current form of government that has been in place for several decades now?
Doyle: Revolutions are messy and people get hurt, but they come from within. The 1979 revolution showed that the monarchy had developed exceptionally harsh tactics against regular ordinary citizens. And we (the U.S.) got that wrong. Plenty of Americans served in Iran and got that part of the anguish wrong.
The next generation is young. It is hopeful and optimistic. And it is very possible that something will generate from the student level, from the women. The women had much more staying power in this last protest round than any of them I've witnessed since 1979. And so, yes, the Supreme Leader has reason for concern. And that tinderbox is just something that the Iranian people are going to have to take under their control and shape their own futures. There will be a lot of Americans, and Europeans, and Middle Easterners that will cheer them on. But they're going to have to do it themselves. That's what we've learned. You have to do it yourself.
The Cipher Brief: Glenn, do you see a potential for the protest demonstrations coming back – whether it's women's rights or human rights, or unfair elections?
Corn: I do. I'm sure there'll be more protests. We've seen that periodically and at some points, on a large scale. And until now, the regime has been able to suppress those protests by using the security elements who are willing to use direct force against their own people. But at some point there could be a snapping point. There was in '79.
But we need to be very careful not to be seen as interfering or pushing, or trying to dictate to the Iranians how this should go. And this is something the Americans have a really hard time with. We think that we have some magic ability to tell people how to do things, and it often backfires. We need to be ready and supportive, but very careful, making sure we are not seen as interfering. Like Paula said, let the Iranian people themselves decide. And when the opportunity presents itself, then be ready to engage the Iranian people, hopefully a new regime or a new government that is truly willing to stop its sponsorship of terrorism around the world, stop its support for its proxies and work with its neighbors.
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