Cipher Brief Expert Gary Grappo is a former U.S. ambassador who held senior positions including Minister Counselor for Political Affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad; U.S. Ambassador to the Sultanate of Oman; and Charge d’Affaires and Deputy Chief of Mission of the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He’s currently a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Korbel School for International Studies, University of Denver.
OPINION - The Biden administration faces an important decision point in its negotiations with Iran over rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Decisions made now and the signals they send to Tehran will determine whether the two sides can reach an agreement. They also will determine whether any such agreement, if concluded, can outlast Mr. Biden’s administration.
After months, the negotiations have now come to a standstill, presumably to give the newly elected president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, and his cabinet time to review progress and potential new directions. Considerable progress had reportedly been made before the Iranian team called off talks in June.
However, subsequent events also have altered the circumstances surrounding the negotiations for the US side. Interpreting those events, as in many things Iranian, is problematic. Three in particular, stand out.
First, there is the (predictable) election of Mr. Raisi, a notable hardliner, as Iran’s new president. With his elevation to the presidency, hardliners effectively control all the decision-making bodies of the Iranian government for the first time since 1988. Hardliners’ positions, especially those of the Supreme Leader and the IRGC, on the US and the JCPOA – uniformly negative – are well known. But at least under the previous president, Hassan Rouhani, there was a willing participant in the negotiations. Mr. Rouhani is now relegated to the traditional obscurity of former presidents in post-revolution Iranian politics, deprived of voice and influence.
Second, Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, has vacillated at times as to the utility of a renewed JCPOA but his views now seem to have hardened on a renewed JCPOA. This may be in response to some of the demands sought by the US side, e.g., extending the sunset clauses on Iran’s nuclear program and incorporating important references to regional security. As recently as late July and only days before the inauguration of the new president, Khamenei publicly asserted that, “Trust with the West does not work,” a seeming repudiation of the original JCPOA and a presumed message to his new president on a renewed agreement. Other senior officials have voiced similar reservations about the JCPOA dating back to the Obama administration, but none more clear than the Supreme Leader’s.
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