Iranian voters sent a strong message to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, decisively electing incumbent President Hassan Rouhani to a second term in office. The presidential election shaped up to be a two-man race between Rouhani, considered a “moderate” by many observers, and hardline rival Ebrahim Raisi, who has served for many years in top judiciary positions. According to the final tally, Rouhani received 57 percent of the vote, while Raisi, finished second with 38 percent of the vote.
But perhaps more telling than the impressive numbers posted by Rouhani was the fact he emerged victorious despite Khamenei and many esteemed members of the country’s security establishment openly throwing their support behind Raisi. The results from Friday’s election, in which more than 70 percent of eligible Iranian voters participated, indicate that many in Iran do not necessarily share Khamenei’s domestic and foreign policy views or his vision for the country’s future.
“In this case, Iranians gave a clear message in re-electing Rouhani,” writes Ambassador John Limbert, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iranian Affairs. “They rejected the old ways, the old rhetoric, the old people, and the old system.”
Rouhani and Raisi could not have represented more divergent camps. As President, Rouhani, along with his Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, have worked to bring Iran back into the international fold, particularly during the negotiations leading up to the landmark nuclear deal struck between Iran and the P5+1 countries in July 2015.
Raisi, on the other hand, has been viewed as a product of Iran’s dark and secretive system, having served as one of four sharia judges who imposed death penalties on political prisoners during the 1980s. Last year, Raisi was appointed the head of Astan Qods Razavi, a billion-dollar religious foundation that manages the country’s holiest shrine in the northern city of Mashhad. Prior to the election, experts even touted Raisi as a potential successor to Khamenei as Supreme Leader.
Iranian voters soundly rejected Raisi – a result that could impact Khamenei’s choice for a successor.
“For the foreseeable future, I think the election necessarily diminishes or even derails the prospects of Raisi succeeding Khamenei at any time,” explains Suzanne Maloney, Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. “Institutions matter more than individuals in Iran, and it would represent a demotion of the perceived authority of the supreme leader if the office were to be assumed by someone who had been rejected decisively by Iranians at the ballot box.”
In his victory speech on Saturday, Rouhani reaffirmed his intentions to engage with the international community declaring, “Today, Iran is prouder than any other time, ready to develop its relations with the world based on mutual respect and its national interests.”
Furthermore, Rouhani said the results expressed a clear message that “the Iranian nation has chosen the path of interaction with the world, away from violence and extremism,” although to what extent that holds true remains to be seen. During Sunday’s Arab Islamic American Summit held in Riyadh, both King Salman of Saudi Arabia and U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed Iran’s status as a leading state sponsor of terror.
“Iran’s relationships with Hezbollah in particular, and to a lesser extent with other terrorist groups such as Hamas, serves a strategic purpose for the regime, and there is no real driver for relinquishing these assets at present,” says Maloney.
For his part, Khamenei wrote in a message on Twitter that the election showed the “increasing progress of [the] Iranian nation,” but failed to congratulate Rouhani on his victory.
Ultimately, however, while the Iranian presidential elections generated much anticipation and dominated news headlines, Tehran continues to boast an authoritarian regime led by a supreme leader who has the final say in any electoral outcome as well as in any major foreign or domestic policy decisions. In fact, many Iranian presidents have expressed exasperation, particularly during their second terms, after being hamstrung by more powerful establishments in the country and failing to implement change or deliver tangible results.
Last Friday marked a pivotal moment for the Islamic Republic. Although power in the country remains in the hands of the Supreme Leader, the election provided Iranians a chance to voice their hopes for Iranian foreign and domestic policy, as well as how Tehran plans to engage with the West. However, with Khamenei still in charge, don’t expect much if any change in Iranian rhetoric, strategy, or behavior.
Bennett Seftel is deputy director of analysis at The Cipher Brief. Follow him on Twitter @BennettSeftel.
