The Cipher Brief interviewed a number of national security experts on the sidelines of this year’s Munich Security Conference. Here are key takeaways from Cipher Brief Expert General David Petraeus (Ret.). Our interview has been lightly edited.
The Cipher Brief: What are the biggest issues on the minds of European leaders at this year’s gathering?
General Petraeus: What hangs over this entire conference really is the degree of uncertainty about U.S. support for Ukraine. At the end of the day, the Europeans have come through. The European Union, as you know, just approved 50 billion euros in additional funding that takes them well over the two to every one U.S. dollar that already has been provided. European countries individually have each been doing a great deal as well.
The big question now is, when will the assistance be coming from the United States? We’ve had reassurances from members of Congress who are here. But of course, there’s no set date and there’s a real concern that Ukraine could begin to run out of air defense interceptors or artillery. Artillery is already reportedly being rationed. President Volodymyr Zelensky made a very, very powerful and compelling case for the need to get this decision made quickly and to get on with the assistance that is so crucial from the United States, which after, all is the most important contributor to the Ukraine war at the end of the day.
The Cipher Brief: Presidential hopeful Donald Trump made controversial comments about NATO recently saying he would “encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to those NATO member countries that don’t meet the defense spending guidelines of the organization. Have those comments been reverberating through Munich this week?
General Petraeus: Sure, they have, without question. It does raise concerns. Look, there’s always been criticism of European countries for not spending enough on defense. Ironically, all of a sudden you’re seeing them do that. The Secretary General of NATO noted that 18 out of 31 countries will make the 2% requirement of GDP this year. The German chancellor committed to the same on stage, and that’s huge because Germany is the fourth largest economy in the world, and they were below 1.5% of GDP on defense prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So, the Europeans have very much been stepping up to the plate.
Certainly, one would always want to see them do more, but the question now is, will the U.S. follow suit? My hope and frankly, everyone’s hope here, I think, is that this U.S. aid package will be forthcoming as soon as absolutely possible. Understanding the domestic politics, the political campaign season, and all the rest of that.
It’s not just for the President anymore. Are you getting your daily national security briefing? Subscriber+Members have exclusive access to the Open Source Collection Daily Brief, keeping you up to date on global events impacting national security. It pays to be a Subscriber+Member.
The Cipher Brief: Alexei Navalny’s widow addressed the Munich forum yesterday, just hours after news that her husband had died in a Russian prison. How was she received there?
General Petraeus: There was almost a gasp really from the audience as she took the stage and explained that she was doing what he would have done. She said that initially on hearing the news, she was inclined to go immediately to her children and to also try to confirm whether the news was actually true. But then she said that her husband would have gotten on stage and that’s what she did on his behalf. It was a reminder really of what a mafia state Vladimir Putin presides over in Russia. If there was any doubt whatsoever about the brutality of Putin, that should be completely gone at this point.
The Cipher Brief: What are your key takeaways for action out of this conference?
General Petraeus: It comes back to how quickly the U.S. can commit to the additional $60 billion of various forms of assistance to Ukraine. Noting of course, as has been explained here and in the United States, that the vast majority of that aid is actually spent in the United States with U.S. companies, both to replenish our own ammunition stockpiles, and then of course to provide some of that to Ukraine. I think that’s the big issue.
There have been a variety of other smaller issues, if you will. Obviously, there’s been discussion about the ongoing situation in Gaza and the situation in the greater Middle East. In fact, I met with the Prime Minister of Iraq yesterday to discuss the challenges that he has with the Shia supportive militia that are provoking our counterattacks by their attacks on us.
But at the end of the day here, the Munich Security Conference – for all of its greater global focus – is still about NATO and the security of NATO nations and the big threat posed by Russia. There’s no illusion that Russia would stop in Ukraine. There’s keen awareness that Vladimir Putin would go on to Moldova and Lithuania, and others in the Baltic States. So, there is a seriousness of purpose that is very palpable. But it does come back to the big question hanging over all of this, which is about U.S. support.
Subscriber+Members have a higher level of access to Cipher Brief Expert Perspectives and get exclusive access to The Dead Drop, the best national security gossip publication, if we do say so ourselves. Find out what you’re missing. Upgrade your access to Subscriber+ now.
The Cipher Brief: While Ukraine waits, its military commander has just ordered troops out of Avdiivka, citing ammunition concerns. How significant is this?
General Petraeus: It’s significant but I don’t think it’s hugely significant. The Russians have lost a colossal number of soldiers and have expended enormous rounds of ammunition. They’ve essentially destroyed Avdiivka, citing concerns about ammunition supplies. It’s been clear for a while that this was probably going to have to happen. It was the right move to make. It’s a tactical achievement by Russia, not a strategic one.
Russia does have the strategic initiative at least on the ground. But of course, keep in mind Ukraine’s achievements in the Black Sea, which President Zelensky described for everyone here in Munich, recalling that their maritime drones have forced the Russians to withdraw from the important port of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea for the first time in a couple of centuries. They’ve made it possible for their ships to get grain out through the Western Black Sea from which they’ve pushed the bulk of the Black Sea fleet, having destroyed at least one third of the ships of that fleet.
Keeping in mind that because of the convention about the straits controlled by Turkey, you can’t bring additional warships into the Black Sea, so these are largely irreplaceable for Russia.
That’s a very significant achievement. We do sometimes overlook that, but it doesn’t in any way assuage concerns about what’s going on there on the ground, where once again, continued U.S. support is absolutely critical.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.
