“I thanked him for the two years of defending Ukraine,” wrote Zelensky on the social media platform, X. “We also discussed who could be part of the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The time for such a renewal is now.”
The announcement of Syrskyi, who previously served as Ukraine’s commander of ground forces, provides some continuity on the battlefield as the military faces significant challenges in terms of manpower, equipment and morale.
Insiders tell The Cipher Brief that Ukrainian soldiers are exhausted after two years of fighting but remain determined not to let Russia continue the killing spree it launched during its initial illegal invasion of the country in February of 2022.
“Syrskyi is a good commander who enjoys great respect among his troops,” former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence Michael Vickers told The Cipher Brief. “He is also close to Zaluzhny, so in that sense I don’t think the change is that significant. On the other hand, the last thing Ukraine needs right now is division in its high command. And the move doesn’t address Ukraine’s growing manpower crisis and even more important, how it will cope with the shameful, ongoing hold on U.S. military aid by the House.”
The U.S. Senate managed to clear a significant hurdle this week, in moving a package that includes aid for Ukraine one step closer to agreement. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Shumer (D., N.Y.) called it a “good first step,” but the aid package still faces stiff resistance in the House.
General David Petraeus, who met with Syrskyi during a trip to Kyiv last year, told The Cipher Brief that “Syrskyi has a strong rapport, a really good relationship with President Zelensky.”
THE CONTEXT
- Since February of 2022, Syrskyi has overseen some of Ukraine’s largest battlefield victories, including the defense of Kyiv in the opening days of the war as Russian paratroopers landed on the outskirts of the city, killing innocent victims as they tried unsuccessfully to take the capital.
- Syrskyi was credited for planning and executing the counteroffensive in Kharkiv, retaking land that been occupied by Russian troops.
- In early 2023, Syrskyi led Ukrainian troops in defending Bakhmut, which was one of the bloodiest battles of the war. His hesitancy to pull Ukrainian soldiers out of the battle for a city that had been destroyed at the cost of thousands of soldiers, leading to his nickname, “the Butcher”.
The Cipher Brief tapped General David Petraeus, who has traveled multiple times into Ukraine with The Cipher Brief over the past year, for his insights on what this change of command could mean for the war.
Gen. David Petraeus (Ret.), Former CIA Director, Six-time Military Commander
General David Petraeus (US Army, Ret) served over 37 years in the U.S. military, culminating his career with six consecutive commands, five of which were combat, including command of the Multi-National Force-Iraq during the Surge, U.S. Central Command, and Coalition and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan. He subsequently served as Director of the CIA. He is now a partner in a global investment firm (and chairs the firm’s global institute).
THE INTERVIEW
The Cipher Brief: What impact do you think this change of command will have on the way Ukraine is executing this war to push Russia out?
Gen. Petraeus: I don't think it will have an enormous impact. The biggest factors in this war remain US support and the size of that support as well as the ability of Ukraine - relative to Russia - to recruit, train, equip and deploy individual replacements and additional units and capabilities to increase their military industrial output and advanced key technologies.
General Zaluzhnyi provided truly inspirational leadership, particularly throughout the first year and a half or so of the war. But I don't know that his replacement by General Syrskyi, who also was instrumental in the defense of Kyiv, and then of course has been the ground forces commander and essentially the field commander really, I don't know that there is a dynamic there that is particularly significant. Zaluzhnyi is loved and admired and respected. He has a higher approval rating if you will, than President Zelensky, so there might be some political repercussions for the president, except that of course, there's no election looming.
They're not going to hold the election that would've been conducted in March because the opposition parties and the ruling party all believe that an election would be unnecessarily divisive at a time when they need continued unity.
The change in command will remove some of the friction that characterized the civil military relationships at the very top. But again, I don't think that this changes things enormously. There might be a potential effect on morale, but the change also relieves some concerns that we saw with Zaluzhnyi and a breakdown in communications between the president and his senior military leader.
The Cipher Brief: What does the future look like for the war in Ukraine?
Gen. Petraeus: The only answer can be ‘it depends’. Because it depends most significantly right now in the US aid package and whether that is passed. The Europeans just committed to 50 billion euros and as you know, there's a new bill that is now making its way through the Senate and has some prospects for approval. It stripped out the border provisions and it's just essentially a bill of aid for Israel and Ukraine, possibly for some others. That's the biggest factor here, at least for the near and perhaps even the midterm. I think that's actually far more important than the dismissal of Zaluzhnyi and his replacement by Syrskyi.
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The Cipher Brief: Right after the announcement, some western news outlets ran with headlines like ‘Zaluzhny is Out, ‘the butcher’ is In.’ Headlines like that certainly can’t be good for morale, either in Ukraine or in Washington. How do you see the impact of this change impacting the morale of those troops on the front lines in Ukraine?
Gen. Petraeus: I've heard those charges about Syrskyi as well. And I've actually heard some comments from folks I know in Ukraine to that effect. But again, he is the battlefield commander. Again, in the defense of Kyiv, he played a very important role in the early successes in Ukraine and in Kharkiv Oblast, as I recall as well in Kharkiv City.
I think the troops are actually much more concerned about replacements, about getting their units back up to strength because there's a challenge that they have on that front around a rotation system for units, given that some of them have been in near constant combat for approaching two years now. I don’t think this will have an overly significant impact on the morale of the troops. Let the leadership by Syrskyi when he is the senior military officer as opposed to the army chief and also dual hatted as the field commander, be the defining issue.
Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal is in a way a bit disappointing, given the character of his service and contributions. But a commander in chief has a right to have a commander in whom he has confidence. And it sounds as if the fractious nature of the relationship was such that confidence, clearly, and the communications among them had eroded. Usually there's two sides to these kinds of situations.
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