Pitts is a senior national security executive, board member, and advisor. His background includes great power competition, global affairs, counterterrorism, and special operations. Pitts served as the Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia, Chief of National Resources Division, senior leadership positions in the Counterterrorism Center, and led CIA’s two largest Field Stations. He is a co-founder of The Cipher Brief’s Gray Zone Group.
EXPERT Q&A – The Cipher Brief tapped Dave Pitts, former Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia and range of other experts with deep experience in Intelligence, Defense and Tech to help provide context around global and national security issues as President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team comes together.
The Cipher Brief: What are the things that you feel like President Trump most needs to focus on in his next administration and why?
Pitts: Focus on avoiding strategic surprise. A focus on China is key. But let’s multi-task, not pivot. We know the Trump team places a priority on countering China. We recognize that Xi Jinping envisions Chinese socialism as an alternative to Western-style capitalism and democracy, positioning China as a capable and committed strategic competitor to the United States for the long term. That focus on China is right, but it comes with a risk that we unnecessarily “pivot” resources, expertise, infrastructure, and partnerships away from Europe, Russia, the Middle East, Counterterrorism, and other critical issues that could surge back in a dangerous way in an “all-in” approach to China.
Our national security priorities—and capabilities—can and should evolve based on the ebb and flow of dynamic global issues and challenges so that we can manage our top priorities while minimizing the potential for strategic surprise. This is one challenge for the next national security team.
Future negotiations over Ukraine require pressure on Russia, not Ukraine.
One option being discussed by some of Trump’s supporters to get Ukraine and Russia to the negotiation table is to threaten to withhold aid from Ukraine to ensure it negotiates and to threaten to fully arm Ukraine to force Russia to the table.
I think that approach is half-right. Russia’s invasion was unprovoked and a blatant attempt to violate international norms to invade a sovereign country. Russia has been particularly brutal in the targeting and killing of civilians. Russia alone is responsible for the massive loss of life on both sides, and it does not deserve special treatment.
Ukraine is a sovereign country, and we should not threaten to deny aid to our own ally. Ukraine is more likely to come to the table if it sees that it alone can speak to its negotiating position and that the U.S. and NATO have its back in the negotiations. In any future negotiations, Russia should not be rewarded with one square inch of Ukrainian soil. The offer to Russia would be to fully withdraw from Ukraine and pay reparations to rebuild Ukraine or see the massive arming of Ukraine.
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A new American administration presents opportunities for engagement and leadership in the Middle East, too.
The Middle East is volatile and unpredictable. Every country in the region will be looking for indications of what the new administration will do in terms of diplomacy, military action, or new political agreements to address escalating violence.
The new U.S. administration will likely signal its strong support for Israel while also seeking a swift resolution to the conflict in Gaza. This moment represents an opportunity to push for an expansion of the 2020 Abraham Accords, possibly with Saudi Arabia next.
The Hamas attacks, the resulting attacks by Israel, and the Palestinian statehood issue create strong opposition to that expansion, but this does represent an opportunity for a new diplomatic effort by the U.S.
Strong statements by the U.S. warning Iran and it’s surrogates may be well received across the region. The U.S. military has been strong in the region, but this is an opportunity for the U.S to restore diplomatic and political influence to a level that can drive much-needed change there.
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Terrorism has not gone away quietly. Despite remarkable efforts by the U.S. and other countries against al-Qa’ida and ISIS, those groups maintain the intent to attack the United States at home and abroad, and ISIS has demonstrated that it also has the means.
We know that degrading and dismantling terrorist groups requires persistence, collaboration, and proactive actions over the long term. Afghanistan is still a source of terrorism and the attacks by Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis is being used by terrorist groups to increase recruits and to inspire global attacks.
An increase in Taliban Madrasas likely will create new violent extremists in Afghanistan. It will be important that the new administration develop a viable CT strategy that can address ISIS-K and the other ISIS affiliates, a potentially resurgent al-Qa’ida, the accommodating environment in Afghanistan, and terrorism inspired by the attacks on Israel.
Let’s put Afghanistan on a political path toward a secure future. The Taliban will be looking for signs that the new U.S administration may be open to changing the state of relations with the Taliban. Afghanistan is a failed state and the Taliban refuses to make reasonable changes to internal policies requested by the U.S, the U.N., and countless countries within the International Community. Afghans in Afghanistan continue to suffer, and hundreds of thousands of Afghans are essentially in exile around the world.
A potential first step for the new administration is to recognize and empower the legitimate political opposition to the Taliban—which could be made up from the thousands of Afghans the international community has known and trusted for over two decades—and to include that opposition in all negotiations with the Taliban on the future of Afghanistan.
The Taliban is interested in the survival of the regime. The political opposition will be interested in the putting Afghanistan on a future path that restores the country to its place in the international community and that provides for the human rights, security, health, education, and economic advancement of all Afghans. This would be a strong step in the right direction. Let’s empower this group.
The Cipher Brief: How important will the national security team that the President-elect chooses be and what kind of experience does he really need in those senior roles?
Pitts: It’s hard to overstate the importance of the new national security team. This team will manage an exceptionally diverse array of consequential challenges to U.S. national security, all starting on Day 1. Great power competition, operations in the Gray Zone, challenges by China and Russia to the current world order, very capable rising regional powers, and nefarious spoilers such as Iran and North Korea will create no shortage of challenges.
Experience matters; it will be important that the new national security team have both breadth and depth of knowledge and experience across a broad spectrum of global adversaries and associated national security issues—that’s a very long list. The team will also need expertise in the critical technologies that impact national security, such as AI/machine learning, quantum computing, cyber, space-based technologies, biotechnology, cyber, and autonomous systems.
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